The closer September 18, the public become sharper estimates on the state of Russian society. Here at the recently concluded Eastern economic forum has sounded the alarming words about the “negative stabilization”. That wording is Director of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs under the President Tatyana Maleva.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
Tatyana Maleva characterized the social situation in the country. There are always new pain sites. They are known for is the deterioration of the situation of pensioners, and an increase in the number of those living below the official poverty line. There is a segment of the population as “working poor”. The payment of salaries in Russia is not a guarantee against poverty. Assessment of Malev, the share of workers with wages below the subsistence minimum in the Russian far East is 12%. While the national average equal to 10.7%.
Sociologist specially made a reservation: “to Have a job and to be poor is a specific problem of underdeveloped economies, and Russia in particular”. But if in many underdeveloped economies, the situation is explosive, in Russia it is stable, but this “negative stability.”
This is a serious warning, like that of Malev or not, addressed not so much to fellow sociologists or those who listened to her speech, many Russian voters. About the alternative “negative stability,” she said, but did it speaking at the same forum, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets. She cited data according to which the decline in GDP is slower than the reduced level of real incomes of the population, and called for revision of the remuneration system in the country, as the system of social benefits. Well, Golodets at the and social Deputy Prime Minister to conduct such audit.
But the meaning of the social speech of Deputy Prime Minister was in another – you need a change of course in economic policy, and therefore the individuals that define it. We live immersed in a big election cycle, which will be completed in 2018 presidential elections. The question is, do elections of change, and if so, what.
Curious to see past electoral rolls, popular in the network is now no less than in those elections, in which Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev promise income growth, new jobs, strengthening ties with all countries. According to the formal democratic logic, those who have not fulfilled their election promises, should be the next to get the heave-Ho. But in Russia, this logic does not work. But it works search for enemies. Outside of their abundance. And inside, judging by the official televised debates of candidates growing talk show is “liberals” who operate primarily in the economy. They need to eradicate.
Follow such changes depends, however, not so much from voters, but from Vladimir Putin. That he once again will be the “new” President, no doubt.
If you go back to the formula of “negative stability,” the opponents “liberals” – from Sergei Glazyev, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Gennady Zyuganov and further down the list until Olga Golodets, promise to fix “negative”. To increase explosive way due to the emission of pumping the growth of the economy, based on gosuslugi to jerk forward and up in technology and in the social sphere.
“Liberals” and those who are now responsible for the solution of economic problems Elvira Nabiullina, Dmitry Medvedev, Igor Shuvalov, German Gref, Alexei Kudrin. They differ from their opponents not only because they promise. The trump card of “liberals” – “stability”. They believe that the economy should strive to market (we have it on 60% gosudarstven), crises and their social consequences are inevitable, but growth is about to begin.
The choice of Putin is a sharp struggle, but he is unlikely to be on the side of dramatic change. Revolution, and reform according to Glazyev akin to the events of the early 1990s, only in reverse, not to mention the proposals of the Communists, lead to unpredictable results. Maximum strap change is a new Rogozin in the government, and this is the beginning of a personnel reshuffle in Yeltsin’s well-known outcomes.
We’re trapped in “negative stability.” A way out of it – not a hardware struggle for the choice of one person, and the full competition programs, means – political competition.