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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Is there a future for the Crimean consensus after the elections


In the blessed days of the Sochi Olympics, when the price of oil was out of reach today above $ 100 a barrel, and ham with Parmesan was the daily diet of official average (and sometimes below average) hands, we care about Ukraine there was a coup. Just in time for the closing ceremonies, so the Olympic bear with Cheetah and the rabbit turned out to be strongly impregnated with the smoke of burning tires Euromaidan. As they say, some evil tongues, on the eve of that historic day, former Ukrainian guarantor addressed to our guarantor with hysterical cries of “enter the tanks!”, and, of course, was redirected at a different location, namely in Europe, and which is vouched in the representative person of the foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Poland to provide a bloodless transfer of power by Yanukovych’s election before the end of 2014. Because in the period of the Olympic games, especially in our country, guns should be silent.

What happened next, everyone knows: the film “Crimea. Homecoming” would be the highest grossing, if it was shown in theaters.

Why I actually? For the first time in recent history the Russian Federation as a result of these events and, as a consequence, the return of the Crimea in the country there was an absolute political consensus among major parties and civil society, called “Crimean”. The main feature of it is the recognition of the need to achieve a consolidated position among the parliamentary forces on key issues of development of the country. Unanimous support of the State Duma of return historical Russian land after a year and a half turned into the same vote, but on the Syrian issue, in September 2015. The parliamentary party is increasingly communicated with the President, who in turn, began to hear not only the “favorite show” — “United Russia”. General support of a foreign policy has created, in fact, the parliamentary coalition cherished by the Kremlin.

But since then much has changed.

From the state of-intensive money of the supporters of the formula “buy all” (in external circuit) power seamlessly and quickly moved into the now infamous mode of “no money but you stay for internal consumption. In the country for the first time in many years again piling up debts on salaries, and to ask the question “when will pay the money owed a” separate especially alienated from the people, the governors are threatening never to pay them from any tone of questioning vziskatelya. Then pointedly at the camera require the state to provide the “right vote” by blackmailing otherwise the refusal of subsidies.

Despite the fact that timely indexation of pensions of citizens throughout the Putin period has been one of the pillars of stability, the government on the eve of elections is a series of highly unpopular measures. Sometimes even the impression that some decisions are directly dictated by the desire to reduce the percentage of the “United Russia” on elections on September 18. For example, why it was necessary to announce about the freezing of the cumulative part of the pension? And promise to make a lump-sum compensation in the amount of 5 thousand rubles for the New year instead of the next regular indexing has already spawned the joke: “and then vote”. Against this background, the proposal to “actively involved in tourism in pensions is an open mockery of pensioners.

In the external loop, the indefatigable policy of openness was replaced by a regime of economical ferocity. In such circumstances, the issue of preservation of “Crimean consensus” becomes almost the main factor of stability in the country. Will it be possible to keep this consensus after the election?

The preservation of inter-party coalition — the most important task ahead of the presidential election in 2018 (although the evil tongues say that they can be held in September 2017). The social contract of the last decade — “sausage in exchange for freedom” — no longer works due to the shortage of sausage. Therefore, is growing and will continue to grow interest obeschannyh citizens to politics. In the context of the ongoing economic downturn, the President is extremely important to have the coalition support in Parliament on the eve of a potential fourth term. It is therefore logical to assume that the results of the parliamentary election campaign this purpose may be formed Crimean government of consensus with the participation of representatives of all political parties, passed by the State Duma.

View — Ministers and other senior officials of the change before the election with the speed of rabbits. Depending on sociological variables can and someone else on the eve of 18 September, remove — for example, from the social block. That does not make for the sake of ratings! In this case no one even bother to explain to worried citizens (not to mention the elite), what exactly does this mean. The concern of citizens is growing. The feeling that something is wrong, increases. Tell me — as in this situation it is best to let off steam, to outline a new strategy of power and immediately to assign responsibility for its implementation? That’s right — share the burden of crisis with all, thereby retaining the high rating of the President in the run-up to new elections and eliminating the ability of the opposition to criticism.

Let’s see who exactly the parties can delegate to the coalition government? “United Russia” co — chair “all-Russia people’s front Olga Timofeev, the lawyer Vladimir Pligin, the advocate of wiretapping of citizens Irina Yarovaya, Chairman of the Duma Committee on social policy Olga Batalina. You can call a number of famous and not so famous names. Batalina and Timofeev belong to a new generation of politicians of the ruling party, which came together with the likely next speaker of Parliament, the curator of internal policy of the Kremlin Vyacheslav Volodin. The Communist party can put an international Affairs Leonid Kalashnikov, a representative of the industry Sergey Gavrilova and the famous opposition of the 90s, former rector rgteu Sergei Baburin. “Fair Russia” will likely offer its leader Sergei Mironov and the representative of the agricultural sector of Alexei chepa. The liberal democratic party — similar to the leader of the party of the young politician Yaroslav Nilov. However, for this they all need to win the election.

Such a scenario is quite possible in view of the fact that the Russian authorities in the person of its political representatives increasingly difficult to bear exclusive responsibility for what is happening in the country. In the fat years, this burden is not pulled, was pleasant and easy. But as soon as collapsed crude oil, we have the blatant evidence faced with the fact that the domestic economy is sitting on the energy needle, so anywhere with her and not think to get off. And talk about upgrades (Hello authors of the concept) and just demagoguery.

The choice for President — would he along with the party in power responsible for the deterioration of the socio-economic well-being of citizens or would prefer to share it with the winners of the parliamentary elections? Find out very soon. Because at stake — the very political stability in the state, which, as a sacred cow, protected all these years.

The Return Of The Crimea. Chronicle of events
source

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