On Saturday in Uzbekistan, the death of President Islam Karimov (MKRU led online broadcast of the funeral of the Uzbek leader). Thousands of residents of Tashkent early in the morning came to the so-called “presidential highway” to conduct the funeral cortege with the body of Karimov to the airport. The coffin with the President’s body was delivered to his home in Samarkand, where at 12 p.m. local time (10 hours GMT) began the ceremony of farewell. Islam Karimov was buried in the historic cemetery Shakhi-Zinda, with their parents. But what’s next? What awaits Uzbekistan after the death of its first President, and who can be his successor? About this MK talked to scientists, specialists on Central Asia.
Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Shavkat mirzijaev.
Questions MK responds political analyst Andrei Grozin
– If you can already assume who will be the successor to Karimov?
– As a Commission for the funeral headed by the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyaev, the more likely it is an old Soviet and post-Soviet traditions and will be the successor. With certainty about 80%, we can say that the next President will be exactly what it is. He has long worked in the entourage of Karimov. His name always figured in the list of potential successors at all experts. In the “Troika” – Inoyatov (Chairman of the national security Service of Uzbekistan – MK), Azimov (first Deputy Prime Minister – MK), mirzijaev. He has substantial administrative experience, supporting security services, the same Inoyatova, a good ability to manage the economy, experience in key regions of the country. He is a strong Manager, he has good relations with Moscow and Beijing. Worse, with Brussels and Washington, but that’ll come.
– Maybe Washington would like to see on this post someone else?
– Of course, our American partners would like to push for President Azimov – Uzbek Chubais, the man who has long been included in a number of global financial-economic groups. But who will give them.
– Is it possible dramatic change of the political course of Uzbekistan with the arrival of the new President?
– By and large, Mirziyaev is a continuation of the former government. The Uzbek elite is not prone to sudden movements. Because if they do, then the system could collapse and bury all the leading financial-industrial groups. It is very dangerous to try in Uzbekistan to play some scenarios of Maidan or Taksim square. And internal resources for this. The opposition suppressed. Society is completely controlled by the KGB. Therefore, the ground for no Maidan. The attempt to undermine Uzbekistan are doomed to failure.
– And the Karimov family in the narrow sense supports the candidacy of Prime Minister?
– He has good relations with the widow of the President Tatyana Karimova, and his younger daughter Lola. With her eldest daughter Gulnara harder, but with all the bad attitude. Therefore, her opinion will be considered last. But to solve will not be the wife and the youngest daughter of Karimov. Will solve serious Uzbek men who are heads of certain financial-industrial groups. And for them Mirziyaev, he is a man from this environment, it is quite adequate and negotiability. The President of Uzbekistan – this is the person who performs the role of arbitrator, which shake down the conflicts between various clans, not allowing them to lead to serious collisions. This is one of its main roles. I think mirzijaev with this role can manage, as it is the flesh of the so-called Samarkand clan. Judging by how abruptly disappeared from the screens of the first Vice-Premier Rustam Azimov, it can be concluded that by and large the game was done.
“Today in Tashkent were theater,” – says chief editor of Ferghana.Ru Daniel Kislov
– Body Karimov arrived in Samarkand yesterday afternoon. – the expert believes. – Cars in the streets of Tashkent today drove empty. Last night for all the residential districts of Tashkent went to the cops and administration officials, who urged people to take to the streets in the morning, and each was pre-assigned place. To create the illusion of national grief.
– Who can become the successor to Karimov? What will change in the country after his death?
After Karimov, nothing will change. His successor is Karimov number 2. No matter who it is. Most likely, it will be the Prime Minister Mirziyaev, who is there the most influential man today and who headed the Commission on the funeral. The acting President appointed under the Constitution, the President of the Senate, the upper house of Parliament, Nigmatilla Yuldashev. The name of the person in Uzbekistan, nobody knows. No one has ever seen on the Internet there is only one picture of him.
Elections will be held, there will be several participants. But one candidate will receive the same percentage, which was received by the Karimov – 95, or 98% of the votes. That is, the political model, which was built by Islam Karimov, will continue.
– What role will be played by the family of the late President? Whether it will keep the effect?
– Exactly what the President’s wife Tatiana Karimova is one of the most influential people in Uzbekistan. But today on the wires we saw her with only one daughter – Lola. The second daughter, Gulnara, who is much better known, even today nowhere to be found. She was sentenced to house arrest for 5 years for financial fraud. She fell into disgrace during the life of the father, and was isolated for two years it is not visible anywhere. It ceased to be a public politician and has completely squandered his political capital.
Died Islam Karimov. Chronicle of events