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Monday, March 19, 2018

Oil has risen because of Putin

On Friday, oil prices went up. According to foreign experts, the main reason for this is the statement of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin Bloomberg that oil market participants may agree to freeze production. For example, a strategist in the commodities markets, Saxo Bank, OLE Hansen, believes that Putin’s statement could be one of the factors that will help the oil market to stabilize.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Because such statements useful for the Russian commodity economy do not argue, and national experts. However, they do not believe that Putin’s promise to freeze production will come true. This “MK talks to an expert on oil and gas market Mikhail Krutihin.

– Of course, Putin’s statement had a positive effect. Oil prices have increased, but let’s face it — not very much. Now some time the markets, possibly, will live in anticipation that the freeze in production will occur. But in my opinion it is impossible. In this our views with President Putin at odds. I see that all the countries producing oil, including Russia, are trying to get as much as you get. All you can sell is extracted and sold. Saudi Arabia plans to increase production not less than two million barrels per day, Iran is steadily moving to four million barrels.

And if someone suddenly freeze prey, then this place will immediately be occupied by those who in this conspiracy is not involved. In particular, the us shale companies. As soon as the price of oil reaches $50 – they will immediately begin to put all the new rigs. The oil will flow even more full-flowing river, and again press down the price down.

Therefore, even if at the meeting of the Russia-OPEC and will adopt some declarative solution, the practical value, it will not have. No one is going to give a niche in the market.

Putin understands this and is just disingenuous, to support the market, or is mistaken?

I don’t know what he believes. Putin once said that the oil could fall to $80. Because it would result in the collapse of the world economy. However, now he says he doesn’t remember when it was said. But if they say it wrong. It is not very strong economist, his predictions in this area are often wrong.

These forecasts sometimes help the market, or help someone advantageous to play in the market. But it is not true.

– What is your forecast on the dynamics of oil prices?

– Since the last quarter of 2014 I your forecast have not changed. The average for 2015 and 2016 – $45. Even though our government sometimes give a more pessimistic forecast of $41.


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