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Thursday, July 20, 2017

No sanctions will drown the Russian economy

This opinion of economic experts have repeatedly expressed. However, only Russian. In particular, high officials of the Ministry of economic development and Ministry of Finance, other government departments. Moreover, in mid-June, Vladimir Putin said that the country’s economy has almost overcome the recession and have adapted to the new reality. Foreign analysts were more pessimistic. They believed that in the conditions of sanctions, Russia will continue its economic and financial decline. But a miracle happened — on the eve of the summit “G-20”, to be held in China, the international monetary Fund prepared an analytical report also States that the Russian economy has overcome the lowest point of the recession and will continue to grow. But there is some doubt. The economic downturn in our country continues, although the pace has declined. If the result, the data of the Ministry of economic development that retail prices in our country for the six months increased by 31%, while wages adjusted for inflation leveling this growth has brought, it turns out that the date when we will rise from the bottom, to presuppose is not worth it.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Alexei Ulyukayev

That economy up from the bottom,” said many. For example, in may this year, Alexei Ulyukayev found the next, the fifteenth “bottom”. Here it should be recalled that the Minister of economic development bottom groping periodically and for a very long time. First, searches were rare — once a year. Then search for frequent — reached times a month. Diver is not a diver, but to save the drowning is a good thing.

Then the term “bottom of the economy” was used, and other. And the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank and different government departments. Stuck. Most at his hand said that it passed and we come up. Not going to remind you that POPs up in any conditions.

However, in that we are moving to the top, not floating on the same level, sure not all. According to experts of the Higher school of economy, in August the national economy of Russia remained in the area of “damping recession”. That is, the basic industries oriented to final demand, trade, services and construction, in principle, not increased. In other words, nothing to be proud of. As he hovered in one spot and continue to mark time.

But Western analysts, that was a surprise, was more optimistic than domestic ones. As noted in the analytical note prepared by the International monetary Fund experts for the upcoming summit “G-20” China, “Russia’s economic contraction has bottomed (again use the word “bottom”) and the Outlook has improved due to lower financing costs and improve oil prices”.

We naedyatsya that they are right. Their Russian colleagues do not cherish any illusions. According to experts of the Higher school of Economics, economic activity in Russia should not wait. The beginning of this year showed that it was completed first, the most acute phase of adjustment of the economy to the “new normality”.

And when we go through the second phase — unknown.

Sanctions . Chronicle of events

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