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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Poroshenko too suspicious “playing peacemaker”

From midnight on 1 September in the Donbass should occur once the truce agreement which was agreed in Minsk. This truce comes when the anticipation of a new war is particularly strong, and the war with the direct participation of Russian troops. Most of all, the situation now resembles the situation in Georgia in August 2008.

It is assumed that the APU and the BCH cease fire will begin once the withdrawal of heavy equipment, and provide each other the exact coordinates of all schools, to avoid tragic incidents such as the Day of knowledge, and after it. The Russian side through its chief negotiator Boris Gryzlov urged to make this a perpetual truce, but the Ukrainian side have launched a propaganda campaign presenting the agreement as “another peace initiative of Petro Poroshenko” (again!), “supported by Hollande and Merkel.

“The murder of the Russian military personnel performing official diplomatic mission under the auspices of the OSCE, is an irreversible history”

The feeling in all of this, it is easiest to Express in French: deja vu. A year ago, a similar agreement – word for word – was signed in Minsk on the same day, 26 August, and the next round of talks was also scheduled for 8 September. Then a truce somehow lasted until six in the evening. And now special envoy of the OSCE Chairman Thomas Sidik sadly reminded that he “has performed with such statements.”

This year on August 31 has not worked since the beginning. Almost all of the front line, except the Mariupol area, in the dead of night has started shooting with mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns. Especially difficult was the night and morning in the area of Avdeevka, zaytsevo, Sand, Maori and, quite unexpectedly, the village of Happiness in Luhansk direction that can be associated with the “water crisis” in the LC. The Ukrainian side said two of the dead and called for help the OSCE mission, the head of the Donetsk military-civil administration Pavlo Zhebrivsky, for a meeting with the head of mission Ertuğrul Apakan, speaking about attacks, pointedly used the term “the Russian side”. European-Turkish diplomat in response to the attendant called to a “ceasefire” since midnight, and it was not quite clear to whom it refers. Against this background, Petro Poroshenko arrived in Mariupol, where solemnly opened the center of administrative services for the population and announced at the meeting that the main goal for him is “peace”. A few hours before him, in Mariupol with the inspection arrived and the new US Ambassador in Kiev, Marie Yovanovitch, that does not seem neither funny nor unexpected.

After complete cessation of any bilateral contacts between Kiev and Moscow, Ukraine’s leadership is a big part of your advocacy Toolkit has spent on the involvement of Russia in events in the Donbass as the parties to the conflict in case of simultaneous media pressure on Western partners. And Ukrainian TV channels on two consecutive days show the video with the movement by rail of the train with ACS and strange photos that are commented as an automated complex of radio control “thorn-CF”, allegedly located in Yasinovataya. Such hysteria is nothing good end can not.

In General, the “holiday truce” – an amazing practice. Was already a “truce” on New year’s, Christmas, Easter. Yet none of them lasted more than a day, and further events was just on the rise. At this Declaration of peace – a phenomenon not only on duty, but suspicious. It is difficult to forget, for example, the speech of Mikheil Saakashvili on Georgian television on the evening of 7 August 2008, when he stated that “there will be no war”. And Petro Poroshenko is now so Intrusive “playing peacemaker” that it’s time to worry.

The last day of summer bombardment of some districts of Donetsk and Yasinovataya, which killed two civilians. No sign of a truce on most of the front of the new Russia is not observed, rather the contrary: the APU continues to accumulate forces opposite Yasinovataya. The strengthening of the group, having signs of shock, requires BCH retaliation, including long-range artillery fire, and that subsequently can be interpreted as a violation of the Minsk agreements. And it doesn’t matter that their implementation is almost impossible.

The increase in the activity of AFU acquired is now so threatening that the city of Donetsk once again beginning preparations for mass evacuation of residents from some of the most dangerous areas of the city. In particular, there was the “inventory of rolling stock i.e. buses counted and checked their technical condition, but the majority of the inhabitants of Kiev, Kuibyshev, Petrovsky and Kirov districts of the city to evacuate refuse. Despite the fact that shelters are not enough, the utilities were ordered again to print all basements suitable for protection of the population.

But the most unpleasant episode occurred in Oleksandrivka, a small village on the Western outskirts of Donetsk, Maryinka before. There is an observation post of the Russian representatives of the Joint center for control and coordination of ceasefire (SCCC). At eight in the evening of August 30 of that part of Marinka, which is the APU, the Russian post arrived about ten min from battalion mortars of caliber of 120 millimeters. Officers immediately evacuated, no one was hurt, but it’s a very bad sign. The attack on Russian peacekeepers – a familiar tactic. It started with this war in South Ossetia, and the murder (God forbid) Russian military personnel performing official diplomatic mission under the auspices of the OSCE, is an irreversible history. So the task is to draw Moscow into military action can only be performed in the background of loud statements about the “peace initiatives Poroshenko”.

By the way, Poroshenko in Mariupol strayed from the text and at the end of the meeting said that in recent days has indeed been a sharp escalation of hostilities. Were rare awareness: “the Problem is not the number of attacks, and that more than half of the attacks – artillery”. Previously, according to the President of Ukraine, was mostly small arms and mortars, but now “increased the number of attacks from tanks, for the first time in many weeks there were attacks from systems of volley fire”. Ukraine, for its part, insists on ceasefire”. Turns out, the Russian observers were not fired by the APU. Night of destruction in Donetsk, Yasinovataya and the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian army, too, have no relationship.

Even assuming a purely formal verbal structures, which have signed the “truce academic year, it is only declared, but not supported in practice. For example, a still not defined mechanism for mutual withdrawal of troops, assuming it can ever be implemented. According from the lobbies of the Minsk talks, officially considered to be controversial four front, consultation on it is expected to continue until 8 September – the next meeting of the consultation group. But such sites can be more a question of the calculation methodology. Even the density of the saturation of troops to the front lines cause discrepancies in the delimitation of these “disputed areas”: the APU is three times higher than BCH in number, relatively speaking, one Ukrainian division is a smaller front than opposing him part of the BCH, so that a simultaneous withdrawal of equal value from a military point of view. This is somewhat simplified explanation, as the front unevenly saturated including and artillery, therefore, to develop a single criterion is not possible. Finally, there is no understanding of who is behind it will follow. Seems like it is the OSCE monitoring mission, but a place of little help due to the nature of the training and instructions they receive, along with helmets and body armor.

Thus from Mariupol under strange circumstances, was allotted the battalion “Azov”, the Ukrainian side serves as a kind of concession. A more logical explanation connects the temporary removal of the “Azov” with the visit of Poroshenko on the principle of “what if something happens.” In any case, the General situation in the southern sector of the front is not affected, because no APU and “Azov” troops utterly saturated the area around the city. In response to VSN two weeks ago, we held an exercise to simulate landing on the shore of the sea of Azov, and in the exercise involved a division, previously in sailing is not seen: the battalion “Somalia” under the command of Mikhail Tolstoy, better known as the Givi.

Thus, before the next “holiday truce”, the situation resembles the pre-war. The Ukrainian side is making efforts to involve Moscow in the Donbas conflict directly and diplomatic rhetoric lives in a parallel world, being tied to formal dates and events.

It is hoped that the G20 summit will provide some respite, at least until 8 September, however, Moscow has not announced any meetings on the sidelines of the China summit in the framework of the Normandy process. And the fact that Poroshenko is pinning too many hopes on the support of European countries and the USA, which from the Donbass war objectively are tired, too bad, because feeling such support gives excess determination even cowardly characters. It is unlikely that he understands that NATO, for it did not come. Saakashvili would be better asked, how it happens in reality.


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