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Friday, October 28, 2016

Kiev again and cut off Russian gas Europe

Russian-Ukrainian judicial battle is in full swing. Gazprom officially admitted that the amount of the claim “Naftogaz” to him in excess of $14 billion Is allegedly not paid by the Russian side money for transit “blue fuel” from our country to Europe. But Gazprom has its claims — in the summer of 2014, the Russian company has addressed in Arbitration Institute of Stockholm chamber of Commerce with a claim to “Naftogaz” for the unpaid gas. Amount of claims — more than $31 billion. the outcome of the confrontation may be delayed for years. However, Kiev has no such time — Russia has already received specific promises that Europe will adopt the three new gas pipeline branches: the “North stream 2, South stream and “Turkish stream”. After their completion, and it will take 2-3 years Ukraine permanently removed from the list of countries supplying gas to the EU. The lion’s share of the budget of Ukraine will be beveled on the vine. Gas supplies to Europe will not stop, but the friendship of Brussels with Kiev will be reduced to zero.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

The aim of the Ukrainian claims to Russia are clear and obvious. Kiev does not want to pay the bills for the supplied gas. Our country has several compelling claims. Ukraine is not going to pay off our country for the purchased bonds worth $3 billion. Add to this the fines and penny — about $500 million In the end, goes well — $3.5 billion.

According to statistics, every Ukrainian should anyone, mainly credit institutions, at least $2-3 thousand, the Average salary in the Square is $220. That’s if you’re lucky. And it is only in large cities. In the regions receive less than half that is also considered lucky. All country foreign debt at the beginning of August was obliged to give foreign investors $18 billion in August alone this indicator increased by almost 25%. So, every Ukrainian believes not only every dollar but every currency.

But to return the money in the Treasury of the country, if the country wins claims to “Gazprom”, — is doubtful. The budget deficit of Ukraine over the past six months amounted to more than $1 billion official data. According to unofficial, the sum is twice (or three and four).

But take the official statistics. For comparison, over the same period last year, the deficit of the Ukrainian budget was a little more than 15 billion UAH — for the money it was (according to official figures) at just $500 million But, again, even then, external debt of Ukraine exceeded $10 billion As did their debts, the representatives of the National Bank of Ukraine — is not entirely clear.

One thing is clear — money from the Ukraine at the moment. Not only to pay bills that Kiev makes “Gazprom”. The idea of Brussels, Ukraine should abandon the industry and agriculture, and try to procure the right products in Europe. It is also a loss of a certain quantity of income by year-end will affect the Federal budget.

Where Kiev will find money for their political agenda and will find them — is unclear. About a quarter of the country’s budget is filled at the expense of revenues from the transit of Russian gas to European countries.

But “Gazprom” with the support of the leaders of Russia, actively promoting the “required previously on the shelf projects” — “South” and “Turkish flow”, which must pass through the Black sea and the Nord stream — 2″, through the Baltic sea.

Until recently, their creation was actually banned by Brussels. But now the EU, in particular Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece and a number of major German businesses are once again ready to support their implementation.

To lay an extra pipe across the Black or the Baltic sea — a matter of two to three years. Costs will be approximately $10-15 billion

But then, on about the same amount will be “de-energized” the Ukrainian budget. Considering that even now Kiev begging for, but not yet able to beg from the IMF us $3 billion by the end of this year, two-digit number will be critical for Ukraine.

Is it necessary at present to demand his rights and to demand from “Gazprom” billions of dollars in suspicious services is either a Scam, or gamble with the Ukrainian side. Hardly it someone is buying it.

However, if Kiev ever will require at least some amount in favor of Moscow, the current leadership of Ukraine will be able to retire and to give the inheritance to someone else.


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