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Monday, October 24, 2016

Putin will control the turnout at the elections to the state Duma

Before the elections to the state Duma is only two decades, but will they, the voter, remains a mystery. There is an impression that he was not particularly waiting for. Campaign posters calling to be on the areas on the streets, almost no television debates between the candidates in single-mandate constituencies are not held at all. Party debating on national television every weekday, but not in the most convenient time — from 17.50 to 18.30. People already go out, but not yet reached home. Mailboxes not yet crammed with reminders with the address of your polling station. The government is in no hurry to spend money to attract voters to the polling stations. But CEC member Likhachev reports that voters on September 18 will threaten stocks of prohibited in Russia organizations. The information is clearly not attracted to the areas, although if you read carefully, it is about the sites for Russians in Ukraine.

photo: Alex geldings

The CEC explained: the conduct of these elections was required to 15 billion rubles, the Finance Ministry has allocated only 10.4 billion Here and decided to save on outdoor advertising and other methods of informing citizens.

Billions, which is not enough for a full reporting of the election campaign — a drop in the ocean of the Russian budget. One hundredth of one percent, or even less. Whether the political will — the money would be found. As there were 20 billion for installation on all stations of security cameras to the presidential election in 2012. Once again, pay attention: then only the camera had spent more than double the entire campaign for the upcoming elections to the state Duma. It was important for the legitimacy of Putin: a high turnout and absolute transparency. This is not saved. It turns out that now the legitimacy of the state Duma is not that important.

And here is the result of savings. Polls: know about the upcoming election only a third of Russians. It was held before the start of the campaign period, but a sluggish agitation, as now, a picture will be difficult to change. And another result. According to a survey by the Levada center, 89% (!!!) of respondents believe that fraud will have an impact on results, with 54% of respondents believe that this influence would be very or quite serious.

Confidence in fraud can be as a motivator (the turnout in the Duma elections of 2011, this has increased, people went to the polling stations to make their voice is not attributed to one of the “privileged” parties), and demotivator: why to go, if still manipulated?

The General state is not so difficult to suspect that it manipulates the turnout, playing it on a promotion, not a demotion. But benefits from their manipulations is not always.

In the 2011 elections did not initially expect, and half from list structure of voters. And the government actively worked to increase turnout. In the end, it’s 60%. Mobilized but not those who waited, and “angry citizens” who had not gone to the polls. As a result, the ruling party won a smaller percentage of votes than she would have liked.

In 2013 before the election of the Moscow mayor decided to go back not to play in the increase in turnout based on the fact that there will be “who should be”. Miscalculated again. Many members of the nuclear electorate of the incumbent mayor just stayed home (and without us everything will be decided) but those who are especially called, mobilized around the Bulk came. As a result, the deal almost ended in the second round.

Well, about the fact that in 2012 “has hit the bull’s eye,” I said.

What about now? On the “financial” short appearance, I said. But, on the other hand, Roskomnadzor reported blocking multiple resources, which is called a choice not to go. If the struggle with the turnout was an end in itself — why then “kill the allies”?

“The government wants both to increase attendance and to reduce it, — told “MK” the first Vice-President of the Center for political technologies, Alexei Makarkin. — Any government in the world wants her voters came from, but others — no. And here to achieve these two goals simultaneously is not always possible. The Russian government is interested to come retirees who participate in the activities of the Council of veterans and are very grateful to the state. To come state employees. That is, those for whom the main thing — not the improvement of life and other “pie in the sky”, and stability. Those who want minimum guarantees and are afraid that if you come to power talkers, they will destroy everything. The state does not seek to create interest in the election of those who are hurt and unhappy.

But the main risk for the party in power that, thus lulling his opponents, it will be euthanized and allies. Her supporters believe that everything is solved. And then almost another summer weekend they will not want to leave early from the country or to break away from the TV, to vote. Therefore it is very important to show them: the result depends on you, each veteran and teacher. And only one administrative mobilization through the labor and veterans ‘ groups don’t always work. Want a full set of exposure. So I think that still appear: and billboards, and postcards in the mailboxes, and more active calls on TV. In the last period before the election will strongly emphasize to leave the grill, go vote, must, must, must. But it will not be done at the expense of the Central election Commission, and already the candidates themselves and the parties.”

The abstraction of the CEC from zazywanie to the polls there is at least one plus. Not again such a situation as in 2011, when the design of outdoor advertising of elections, made at public expense, was very similar to the propaganda posters of specific political parties. Then many were outraged. Now the state is not be similar to someone else’s with regard to its practical absence.


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