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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Karimov in intensive care: the experts gave predictions about the future of Uzbekistan

President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov is in intensive care with a stroke. This was confirmed by the daughter of the head of the Republic of Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva and asked him to do without speculation on this subject. However, the condition of the guarantor of the Constitution compels you to raise a number of questions: who may take his place; how it will change relations of Russia and Uzbekistan, and most importantly, will the potential leader of the Republic to combat the growing Islamization of the country, as did Karimov himself.

photo: Alexander Astafyev

On Sunday, the media reported about the emergency hospitalization of the head of Uzbekistan. Later this alarming information was confirmed by the Cabinet of Ministers, that became a precedent for the Republic.

In 25 years of Karimov’s presidency, the official authorities have never given a hint about his health, told “MK” chief editor of the portal “Fergana.<url>, expert for Central Asia Daniel Karimov.

August 29 at his Instagram in order to “avoid misunderstandings” the President’s daughter revealed the details of hospitalization of the 78-year-old Islam Karimov: bleeding in the brain, is in intensive care, certain predictions yet stable condition.

But predictions about the future of the Republic of Uzbekistan shared with us experts.

Expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov in an interview with “MK” expressed hope for the speedy recovery of the President of Uzbekistan, noting that Karimov himself is unlikely to take part in celebrations on the occasion of the independence Day of the Republic 1st of September. “Let’s see who will come to the fore at the upcoming event,” said Dubnov. The expert also noted that the probable successor to Karimov, though, to speak about it prematurely can become Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev, who quite suits Moscow.

Arkady Dubnov is convinced that the question of growing Islamization in Uzbekistan is very critical. “First and foremost concerned with urban populations that prayed Karimov, — says the expert. — He is considered the main guarantor of security, protecting Uzbekistan from the threats of Islamic radicalism.

In my opinion, the successors to Karimov is not visible to a person with the same extremely rigid character. However, there are special services. For example, Rustam Inoyatov, head of the national security Service, which suppresses her any apparent suspicious activity of Muslims sending their religious ceremonies, say, five times prayers and reading declared banned literature of the Islamic character. Sometimes it was used as the charge of indoctrination Muslims Islamic radicalism. This issue is a problem.”

Alexei Volosevich, an independent journalist in Tashkent, also believes in the importance of the issue. “All the people who are watching the situation, wondering: will the next President so to counter the Islamists, like Karimov? He is the sworn enemy of the Islamists — says Volosevich. — If it comes sympathizers, such as Erdogan, in the Republic everything can change 180 degrees.”

— As Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyaev refers to the Islamists?

— But who knows. He is from a small village of Zaamin in the Dzhizak region, and rural people, as a rule, atheists are not.

— Who can take the place of Karimov?

— Mirziyaev, indeed, the most likely candidate, but, according to the Constitution, after the incumbent President for 3 months his office shall occupy the chair of the Senate Nigmatilla Yuldashev. During this time there should be elections.

— What is the President of the Senate?

— Unknown the person holding a technical post. Actually, remembered about it just now. Some argue that it is representative of the “Tashkent clan”, but it’s fiction. This community does not exist anymore as such.

— And what do You know about Mirzaeva?

— A bad man with a bad temper. Yelling at subordinates, as well as Karimov. Personally beat farmers, the plan for cotton are not fulfilled. Mirzijaev often do the dirty work. First, Karimov did not like him. Later, he turned out to be a very effective Manager. Gradually mirzijaev has acquired connections, influence.

— Will the Russian-Uzbek relations under a new President?

— Hard to say. Russia has its interests in this situation are defended. She didn’t lift a finger to promote his man.

— The process of change of power in Uzbekistan will take place in a regular mode or a separate elite of the Republic will try to take it in your hands?

— It can be. The main strength of Rustam Inoyatova, the chief of the SNB. He has an armed force, and the rest not. Whom he would support, nobody knows. Maybe mirzijaeva. Eventually everything will become clear.

UPDATE: media reported that Islam Karimov died

Died Islam Karimov. Chronicle of events

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