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Monday, October 24, 2016

Boycott Poroshenko, the Kremlin is trying to move the Minsk process forward

In Kiev say that neither the foreign Ministry nor the presidential administration, nor the Petro Poroshenko for a long time can not contact with Vladimir Putin. Within the framework of traditional diplomacy, such a boycott is one of the most extreme measures. Measures are not always effective and can be very dangerous, but quite justifiable in this particular case.

Immediately after the incident, the Ukrainian sabotage group of the Ukrainian President has instructed the foreign Ministry “to arrange a telephone conversation with President of Russia, after Kiev and began to complain that the Russian side “not picking up”. While anonymous sources on Bankova street claim that any contacts with Moscow in the line of presidential administration was not as much since 7 August.

“Then the Ukrainian side began to cherish their grievances and fears, remembering that the Kremlin pointedly ignores iconic for Kiev event for quite some time”

As you know, after the events in Crimea, Putin said that “Ukraine has moved from negotiation to terrorism” and that in such a situation it is pointless to meet in the Normandy format. The tone of the statement left no doubt that Poroshenko moved into the category of “shake hands”, as previously Mikheil Saakashvili. There is a version that the immediate impetus for such a change in attitude to the personality of Poroshenko was the death of two Russian soldiers during the detention of Ukrainian saboteurs. The Russian President does not like this, the example of Erdogan to bail. Then the Ukrainian side began to cherish their grievances and fears, remembering that the Kremlin pointedly ignores iconic for Kiev event for quite some time. For example, Vladimir Putin did not congratulate Ukraine on the victory Day over fascism. The second government, which was to receive a congratulatory telegram, but was circumvented, again, was Georgia.

However, to date, complaints about the inability to get through to Putin ceased to come from “anonymous sources close to Bankova street”. After the recent round of talks in Minsk, which was announced on the next “turn truce”, on this subject expressed by the official representative of Ukraine in the tripartite contact group Yevhen Marchuk. “As you know, Hollande and Merkel in conversation with Poroshenko stressed the importance of continuing to work in the “channel format”. But I will pay attention: Putin did not talk with Poroshenko. Putin is demonstrating that he is ignoring the Ukrainian President,” he said.

Marchuk – a serious man, worked in the KGB and the Prime Minister of Ukraine, head of the Ministry of defense, nothing will not be offended. It turns out that, faced with the forehead on krasnokamennaya the wall of the Kremlin, Poroshenko tried to complain to the “elder brothers” – Hollande and Merkel. Those to Putin phoned, but to no avail. The President of Ukraine urgently needed to find a mediator who will not give up and he appealed to the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. “Poroshenko recently called me” – said Nazarbayev in a conversation with Putin (a major confidence-home tone, which perfectly speak Russian Kazakh leader all brought). “He said that to accept the status of Donbass and the second region, which is there, does not allow (lack of) he has a majority in Parliament. It is necessary to solve other issues. Also, I think (he) inclined to find compromises, but somehow they are not. All these questions, of course, give you a burden for Russia, but they are solved”, – said the President of Kazakhstan. And I want to add is “and a wink.

It all looks, of course, too serious. It’s tempting to advise to appeal to Erdogan for advice on writing “good writing”, which would be conveyed through an unexpected private intermediaries. But only until August 31, when Poroshenko is going to visit Mariupol. Because in the future the situation could become irreversible.

Translation of Poroshenko in the category “shake hands” appeared to Kiev so intimidating because in Moscow at different levels until the last day repeated the mantra that the Ukrainian President is at heart a good boy, he just sort of “Right sector* Kolomoisky, the Parliament, the hell out of Dikanka from fulfilling his campaign promise to end the war in the Donbas, or at least “implement” part of Kyiv Minsk agreements. Under this pretext Poroshenko said goodbye and public Russophobia, and strange behavior, and vyklyanchivanie gas oil, and the eternal appeal to the troops of NATO and USA. And suddenly, Basta, beetles, the dance was over. In the world diplomatic practice this kind of “ignore” although there are caused by emotional events, in practice, has always been held to compel a party to do something that she wants to do. However, the resumption of contacts by itself is perceived as a strong assignment that requires a response. But this kind of informal relationship, this is how it is now fashionable to say, “the new reality”, which will have a start in the resumption of contacts. That is, to climb back to the level of relations with the Kremlin, which was until 8 August, Petro Poroshenko will have from the bottom. “Good lad”, which, in the transmission Nazarbayev, “compromises are not” is in the past.

It is quite a complicated practice that requires an integrated approach. But Poroshenko – not Erdogan with its deep Oriental habits, he is a businessman from the 90s, not a professional politician or a military therefore it is fairly easy to scare, and demonstrated the desperate search intermediaries. While Kiev deprived himself of most of the legal negotiation with Moscow (Minsk gatherings don’t count, they are local in their capabilities and powers) and now the speech will really go about some non-standard moves of type visit individuals with letters in plastic bags with the logo of “Roshen”, since I have the pouch turned out to be cleaning day.

History shows that a good job with it, for example, the clergy. So, the Spanish Caudillo Francisco Franco, once in complete isolation, were sent in the United States and the Vatican preachers to read private lectures about the need to take Spain to the UN. But he was unequivocal steps such as the dissolution of the falangist party and the exclusion of the most odious characters. And these days we have to raise by the time the leaders of the United States and Iran or Iran and Israel, they even accidentally collided with each other in the corridors of large international forums. But in fact, and in another case there were alternate channels of communication (up to “the case of Colonel North”) and common negotiation platform. To complete disregard rarely came, except that all the leaders of South Africa were considered strictly “shake hands”, since “architect of apartheid” Hendrik Verwoerd.

This kind of practice is akin to the military doctrine of “indirect effect”. Diplomacy is receiving more psychological and is formally contrary to the classical canons, which implies continuous communication of all with all, meetings, conferences and feigned friendliness (diplomatic etiquette is not just created and polished over several centuries). The obvious advantage of such tactics – it is non-aggressive. Not picking anybody up, so nobody at home, and there’s no need to worry, not the war, well you announced official note on stamped paper. The weakness is that it is useless to use in a deadlock. It ignores, for example, Beijing, the existence of Taiwan, but Taiwan has not drowned, and forty years of ignoring Israel, the Arab countries have not yet led to anything other than those same wars. But these are questions of principle, ideological or emotional compromises are possible. In our cases (there is a Georgia, it is quite effective and justified. And Poroshenko is still the opportunity to go dear comrade of Erdogan.

Another thing is that Erdogan was in some sense simpler, it was clear what he should do and what exactly needs to talk. In the case of Poroshenko, these criteria are vague, and the Ukrainian leadership has put himself in too acute angle, so that it could easily turn around and not hit with your head. But in dealing with the Ukrainian President and listening to him, I may say, of the arguments now there really is no practical meaning. Laws on a wide autonomy of Donbass and Amnesty is either accepted or not. The attacks either stop or not. And the list goes on. And talk about unruly Parliament, which does not allow to implement the Minsk agreement, all bored to death. Now we have to do either without them, or without the political communication itself, in terms of the threat of a new big war may be fraught.

Yes, this new political reality, in which every misstep will have serious consequences, although officially nothing ever seems to change. The talks in Minsk go on as usual, somewhere in the guest rooms with screens in the wall discussed the price of gas, on Bankova street a lonely President twirls the dial of the governmental communication and listening to the beeps. Practical steps from Kiev in the framework of the Minsk process waited too long to continue to take instead of them explaining why such steps cannot be done.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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