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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

The Turkish army in Syria runs the risk of Assad’s troops

Turkey bears the first losses in ground operations in Syria, deployed against ISIS (banned in Russia) and Kurdish units. Militants of the Kurdistan workers party (PKK) fired at the Turkish tanks in the area of Jerablus released, killing one Turkish soldier was killed. Also the PKK militants opened fire on the airport in the Turkish diyarbakır grenade launchers. “MK” contacted the scientist, orientalist Alexander Sotnichenko, to find out where to next move the Turkish forces in Syria.

photo: AP

– Are there any signs that Turkey’s ambitions in Syria is not limited to Jerablus?

Turkey has long wanted to realize his idea of creating in Syria a so-called “security zone”. Since 2013 there is talk that Turkish troops may intrude on Syrian territory and capture some Northern areas with predominantly, as they wrote, the Turkmen population to ensure their safety. However, since then the situation has changed greatly. Then the Turks could not get permission to invade from the United States. Of course, Russia was against it. Especially the situation worsened after the conflict between Russia and Turkey, which came after the downed aircraft. Thus the Turks had to push this idea for a long time.

But everything changed after the attempted military coup, and after the Turks managed to convince the US that they are the main allies and not the Kurds. This is largely happened due to direct blackmail by Turkey the opportunity to withdraw from NATO and to move closer to Russia. We see that the permission was granted, and Vice-President of the USA John Biden, who arrived in Turkey even during the beginning of the operation, spoke in its support. American aircraft also took part in it, and now the Turks issued a blank check to create a “security zone”.

It should extend from the town of Jerablus on the West to the territory controlled by the Kurds. The goal in this case – to a large extent prevent the unification of the two Kurdish enclaves, East and West, and prevent the actual creation of an independent Kurdish state.

– Will there be something Kurdish enclaves in the framework of a ground operation Turkey?

– Clashes are already ten kilometers from Jerablus. Plus, Kurdish troops announced they had left Manbij, shortly before that, taken with the help of the international coalition. The Kurds are very disappointed that the US refused to direct support, they were confident that they are the main allies of America in Syria.

– Do you think that the USA would not try to play the situation with the Kurds?

– No, the US is completely beneficial to what happens. The war drags on. The Syrian crisis has another powerful actor. It allows Washington to be above the fray, to regulate relations between its allies and to delay the Syrian crisis to the civil war in Syria continued as long as possible. I have already said that the goal of U.S. strategy in the middle East and Eurasia as a whole – the creation of the zone of continuous instability. So, relatively speaking, Muslims killing Muslims, and Russian Russian, that there was no alternative to the U.S. pole.

– There have been suggestions that the Turks will move in Aleppo. That’s a possibility?

– It is theoretically possible. From the mouth of the Turkish political analysts I have heard that the Turkish army, heading West, can go in the direction of the village of al-Bab and break the delicate defense of the Syrian army and thus to get into besieged Aleppo. Another thing is that it will require are some serious efforts. If they (meaning not only the Turkish army and the opposition Free Syrian army, which moves together with the Turks – “MK”) will be decided on such a long trek, they can create a very serious threat to the Syrian army, which currently almost surrounds Aleppo and in General for all peaceful initiatives in this city.

The war in Syria. Chronicle of events

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