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Saturday, July 22, 2017

Millions of tons of milk were “paper”

About one-third of made in Russia milk actually exists only on paper, said the national Union of milk producers. Home is extremely reminiscent of the practice of the Soviet time, caused by the system of state subsidies. However, this may not be the only explanation for the emergence of a “virtual” milk in Russia.

About a third of the volume of the officially produced milk in Russia are the “paper” is necessary, said the Chairman of the National Union of milk producers (Soyuzmoloko) Andrey Danilenko at a press conference in Ufa on Friday.

“There is no longer the villages, people and cows, but in the reporting they still exist”

“Now, according to official statistics, we produce about 30 million tons of milk (per year) in the country, of which almost half is declared as in the private sector and, consequently, in peasant farms. But we have done our own calculation. In our opinion, the volume of milk production in Russia – about 20 million tons, that is, we consider that around 10 million tons is virtual,” said Danilenko, reports “Interfax”.

According to him, the greatest doubts on the data of regions, declaring “and for 70% of production in the private sector”. Assessment Soyuzmoloko, according to the private sector the volume of milk production overestimated by 30%.

Thus, the existence of so-called paper yields confirmed by the experience of Bashkortostan, where the result of the conversion improved by about 30%, says Danilenko. According to Soyuzmoloko, from 30 million tonnes officially produced in Russia milk processing plants received only 12 million tons.

Questioned the statistics the industry is also the Executive Director of the Dairy Union of Russia Lyudmila Manicka, which was in another city – at the scientific-practical conference in Barnaul. According to statistics, in 2015, it produced 30.8 million tons of milk and by the end of 2016 is expected at the same level. Manicka also believes that to be a virtual milk production-raw materials. “We quietly began to add milk yields in the regions in which we just can’t add. Oryol oblast – an increase of 7%, sales – 5%, Karachay-Cherkessia – 6%, and the implementation as much as 34%. And the leader of all this, the investment boom became the Republic of Crimea – where we add 104% (milk yield). Add and multiply the “paper” yield, while the traditional regions are stagnant or go negative,” said Manicka.

While Manicka connects this “paper” boom that the state gives subsidies for 1 kg of marketable milk. In her opinion, this support of the dairy industry is inefficient, because it is based only on production volumes and does not consider its quality parameters – indices of fat and protein. In the end the government spends extra money to supposedly support the industry.

So, according to her, to subsidize milk production in the first half of 2016, the Federal government has spent 2 billion rubles, the regions – an additional 4.9 billion. Of the 83 regions (Sevastopol and Moscow, where production is not subsidized) 61 region paid less than 1 ruble per 1 kg of marketable milk, 21 region – less than 75 cents. Together with the support of dairy cattle producers in January – June, according to Manicki received 17 billion rubles of support. “The total amount is huge, and exhaust – no. And those 17 billion rubles – almost a quarter of possible investment lost 1 million tons of milk,” she said.

Interestingly, the system of state support of dairy farming diskreditiert defence of milk producers. Then how much support the dairy industry sought a very long time.

However, other experts believe the problem paper yields exaggerated. Loopholes to obtain from the state the extra money is always there, but that doesn’t mean that you have to cancel or change the program. It only means that it is necessary to better control the expenditure of budgetary funds and actively check grantees.

There are three categories of milk producers – farmers organizations, farming companies and private farms. According to Soyuzmoloko for 2014, the share of milk production at agricultural enterprises in total production was 94%, farmers and individual entrepreneurs – 69%, in households – 34%. Commodity milk is sold.

Overall milk production for the last three years remains almost on the same level in 2013 – 30.5 million tons in 2014 and 2015 – 30.8 million tons. The volume of milk production in total volume shows growth in 2013 of commercial milk were produced 18.9 million tons, in 2014 this figure was 19.7 million tons, and last year, and is 20.1 million tons (1.9% more).

According to Rosstat, in 2015 the share of agricultural enterprises accounted for 47.8% of milk production (14.7 million tons), the share of farmers of 6.6 percent (2 million tons) and LPH – 45,6%, or 14 million tons. A total of 30.8 million tons.

“The most valid are the data for the production of milk in agricultural enterprises, it is easy to verify by comparing with the volume of milk shipped for processing. Data farms are harder to control Rosstat shows an annual increase of yields by an average of 5-6%, which is questionable. The growth of milk production in this category is, but perhaps it is less”, – says an independent expert of the dairy market Tatyana Rybalova.

“However, most of the criticism from the expert community regarding statistics of production in private farms of the population. Here is a wonderful miracle. Since the 90-ies of the Ministry of agriculture adjusts the gross milk yield in the direction of their increase at the expense of households. And these indicators from year to year grew. No longer the villages, people and cows, but in the reporting they still exist. However, how to obtain subsidies at the expense of those virtual cows, it is not clear, as the subsidies benefit the agricultural enterprises and individual farms per 1 kg of commodity milk supplied for processing,” notes Rybalova.

Overall statistics on the volume of milk production do not correspond to reality. “I suspect that the gross yield may be at the level of 20 million tons of milk. More accurate information,” says Rybalova. However, registry can go at all stages of the collection of statistics, so one cannot argue that the “paper” of 10 million tons is a matter solely negligent grantees. At least it confirms the fact that for three years the total volume of milk production remain almost on the same level, there are no sharp jumps in General.

It is possible that some virtual milk is the statistical errors due to the presence of non-existent villages. Although to the end to exclude the presence of “paper” yields paid by agricultural companies in order to receive subsidies too. Especially as previously, the milk producers have tried to cheat the government. We will remind, earlier acted in a different program of support dairy producers: the government paid subsidies depending on the quality of milk is highest, first or second grade. In the end statistics showed an unprecedented growth of volume of production of that premium, and this form of support was canceled.

“In the regions, the milk market is largely gray, but a significant proportion is produced and consumed in the private sector. However, the problem of obtaining subsidies to paper producers, in my opinion, exaggerated,” – I agree also Georgy Vashchenko of IR “freedom Finance”. “Subsidies are targeted, and their volume usually does not exceed two rubles per liter. Even if the planned volumes twice as high as real, it does not cover like 10% of the cost of the manufacturer,” he explains. In other words, subsidies for dairy producers due to high costs are not so large.

“Dairy farming has always been a problematic industry due to high production costs and a long investment. As for additions, we have enough regulatory bodies, that can bring in this matter. This is not a reason to deny subsidies to those who work honestly and expects help from the state,” said Tatiana Rybalova.

This summer is the first 10 years of the agricultural census, which, in particular, should help to understand how statistical data on production of milk reflect the reality.


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