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Monday, February 19, 2018

“The Kurdish operation,” Erdogan added problems to all players in the region

The task which Erdogan is now trying to solve in Syria, not beyond the local. He managed to bring the problems to everyone from Russia to the United States. Not to mention the Kurds, who now have every reason to believe that the great powers they simply “threw” anything that is not winning.

Part of the Turkish army almost without a fight took the border Glabrous, not allowing thereby the exit of Syrian Kurds to the border and in the broader perspective of preventing the possibility of their further advance to the North and North-East to connect with the Turkish Kurds. The militants LIH* left district Calabresa, like the city itself, almost without resistance.

“Massoud Mustafaevich even received a basic education in Arabic, while his father suffered a defeat “Maharadscha of the Republic”, broke with the fighting in the USSR”

In the attack on Glabrus with Turkish side were the forces of the 2nd field army, a significant portion of officers which mowed the recent purges, and the soldiers already almost six months spent on the Syrian border in adverse conditions and in poor supply. The Kurds, who by all estimates was to take Calabros long before the Turks abandoned the offensive under pressure from the US (this one especially does not hide), and even began to organize to withdraw behind the Euphrates river, as demanded by American advisers, in order to nullify even the theoretical possibility to deal with the Turkish advance units on oncoming traffic.

Ankara is required to close approximately 50-mile “window” on the border, to deprive the Kurds of the operating room. In order to negotiate with the jihadists of the abandonment of Calabresa almost without a fight, the Turks had the opportunity and the motive. It is through this corridor for a long time was, for example, illegal oil trade, and local Islamic leaders tied in the polls with the Turkish military intelligence. In the end ISIS had “resistance is lossless, and the local Jamaat for several hours vanished into thin air like it never existed.

Ankara has never concealed that he would like to create on the Syrian border, something like a “security belt”, and now to saturate Glabrous Turkomans or the “right” of refugees is only a matter of time.

If you think about it, Turkey is quite well hidden, despite the East the flexibility of the language. Regional interests, Ankara all these six years has not changed and will not change. The first goal is the neutralization of antitobacco minded Kurdish movements, especially those who are focused on higher forms of Kurdish statehood than cultural autonomy (regional newspaper, and the song and dance ensemble). The second objective – the weakening of neighbouring countries or regimes. This way they go and the search for allies and manipulation of the weaker or susceptible partners, the usual practice in such cases.

What extremist groups are recognized as terrorist in different countries (infographic)the planning Horizon Erdogan is not as distant and beautiful as we are trying to instill. If in the country he is guided primarily by the emotions which are imposed on the injuries of the Turkish national character, the foreign policy of the current President of Turkey – pronounced regional tactics, which is the solution specific specific problem is raised to the rank of global intrigue.

Now for the “window” at the border, he managed with his “sofa” (Cavusoglu, Yildirim and others) are immersed in heavy thoughts the whole region and the two superpowers. It all started with a practical consultations with Iran, until recently, unthinkable. And Tehran and Ankara will be up to the deathbed to oppose any form of a Kurdish state, but it’s the only thing that unites these regional competitors, historical foes and religious antagonists. And Ankara was sufficient just to state common to the two countries of the anti-Kurdish sentiment to talk about “successes” in the way of “rapprochement of Iran and Turkey.” Eventually Tehran will not to resist Turkish expansion as long as it is directed only against Kurds, but for all other directions will stick to its own views of the world (ban Ki – proasadovskih, Armenian anti-Turkish). Erdogan-tactics enough neutrality of the Persians for a few days until he “closes the window” on the border and separates the Kurds for beads and trinkets. Erdogan strategist yet no one in the world has not seen.

About the same he did with Americans in General, and with Vice-President Joe Biden in particular. It looked like this. Come on, Biden’s Bay, to talk about Hulene and only about Hulene. Ah, you have in America, only the court decides the issue of extradition, and we have a bilateral agreement? Well then, we introduce troops to Glabrous. As not to touch the Kurds? Then let’s talk about Hulene. Exhausted Biden have a few hours to explain the peculiarities of the judicial system and to say that he “brought with him a team of lawyers, and as a result the Pro-American Kurds gritting his teeth crossing over the Euphrates. And Americans themselves are to blame, because already on the scheme “support of all – anybody after all will win.” While the losers that they are.

The next element of the tactic by the Kurds themselves. Turkey time is coming the leader of the Democratic party of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, where he unexpectedly makes a number of Pro-Turkish statements. Like the sensation, but we must remember that the tribes of Barzan and Zebari deeply alien to the interests of the Kurds in Turkey, both politically and ethnically. Massoud Mustafaevich even received a basic education in Arabic, while his father suffered a defeat “Maharadscha of the Republic”, broke with the fighting in the USSR. Its natural habitat and political activities in Iraq and only Iraq, but the “world Kurdish identity,” he is not even going to think. And even more so to correlate its interests with some sectarian anti-Turkish movement type of the Kurdistan workers party from their a red star on the flag, cinematic women’s battalion and a prisoner Ocalan.

Attempts to present the $ 30 million Kurdish people as a single entity, at least ethnographically, linguistically at least are doomed to failure. And politically it is impossible in principle. Even the Turks for several decades, managed to form a loyal local orders of the Kurdish self-defense units, let even with the help of bribery and violence. Even if in terms of tribal thinking part of the Turkish Kurds cooperated with Ankara, to say nothing about the ethnically and geographically distant Iraqi Kurds who speak a different dialect, formed in the Arab environment in a fundamentally different political environment.

Erdogan shows the world the friendship with Barzani, a position which, as his party and tribe, issued the opinion of the majority of Kurds. Speech Barzani in Ankara were designed to cover up and as if “to authorize” operation on the Turkish-Syrian border, while Barzani himself would not know. His men would never marry outside of their ethnic area for the mythical obscurancy interests in the province of Aleppo.

The last problem that stood before Erdogan before the “closing the window” on the border, it is actually Damascus. If the Turkish leader could act in accordance with his attitude, he would be completely ignored and the Syrian government and Syria itself. He has long pretended that Bashar al-Assad is no longer there, and obviously believed in it, played with it a bad joke.

But Damascus has its own opinion, and to ignore it is dangerous. Any stay of the Turkish troops on Syrian territory is perceived as an insult, and Syria was naturally filed a protest with the UN. And even before that incident happened with a Syrian aircraft that defiantly bombed positions near a Pro-American Kurds, reinforced, as it turned out, the American special forces. Special forces trained for this in any difficult situation to hide and call my mother – his aircraft, which promptly appeared, and then stated that “drove” the Syrian planes. Quickly spread the theory that the Americans notified in advance (not Damascus) about the participation of his soldiers in a short ground operation in the area of Raqqa. This is indirectly confirmed by Lavrov and Kerry, stressing successful cooperation via communication channels”. Then these data fall to the Syrians, who went down to the demonstration of force, without coordinating his actions with Moscow.

How this chain of events is accurate, it is not yet clear. Theoretically Damascus could really identify his strength this way. In the end, Bashar al-Assad – the independent politician, to which the Russian Federation is only assisting and not manipulating him. And he did not wish the presence on its territory of American troops in any form. As would the increased activity of forces, which, due to various circumstances have fallen into dependence on U.S. aid, as some of the Kurdish movement.

We repeat: all that is needed to Erdogan, to close the “window” on the border and to deprive the advancing Kurds operational capabilities. As a result of all these tactical intrigues of Moscow became embroiled in the conflict, the UN said in a statement that Syria has been appointed and his position there need to be. And the fact that Ankara seems to be a successful operation, all the other participants in the events, including the US and Russia, appears to be a pile of ambitions, which is not even a hint architecture strategy, even regional.

The Turks in my two cents received. And the rest of the now ten roubles to understand.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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