Turkish ground operation on Syrian territory will likely force Ankara and Moscow to negotiate the redistribution of spheres of interests in Syria. This was stated by Deputy Director of the Center for political technologies, Alexei Makarkin, who also explained how Russia will consider the invasion of the Turkish troops.
Now Russia will try to negotiate with Ankara about how to divide the spheres of influence. This and devoted the dialogue of Putin and Erdogan.
In Syria there is a war of all against all. And the invasion of Turkey in this country is largely due to the desire to prevent further advancement of the Kurds along the Turkish border.
The Kurds want as much as possible to strengthen, to expand its zone of influence. Accordingly, the Turks solves two problems. First, they block the road to the Kurds. Second, they support “their” – that is, antiacademic Pro-Turkish opposition. Assad is frustrating for LIH (banned terrorist group) too. As for Russia, it will try to divide Turkey areas of interest – there is a serious battle for Aleppo, and there make it extremely difficult.
But here this is possible. Assad is not strong enough to deal with ISIS in this area. The Kurds are the Turks not to go. In addition, only that there was a clash between Assad and Kurds in the same strip, on whose territory the Kurdish forces want to extend their influence. There is relatively close and the Turkish border. So Russia will try to negotiate with Erdogan…
– This invasion Bang their heads to Russia and Turkey?
Erdogan would like to negotiate with Russia to avoid a head-on collision. At the same time, Russia does not want to replace Assad. Russia is still their own interests than his interests.
Once the war of all against all, everything is very unstable coalition. Sometimes the situation may change within a few days. Erdogan may seek Russian neutrality.
Russia, in turn, can say that it was necessary to coordinate this operation with Assad, who it never, of course, would agree. But on the other hand is still the fight against ISIS. But ISIS is a common enemy, the only player who really can anyone to join the Alliance. A single isolated player. On this basis and you can negotiate. Russia can not blame Erdogan, and Erdogan compliments of Russia do not really need. He needs to not particularly bothered.
Now the relations of Russia and Turkey began to be built, so if the interests of the two countries do not face directly, as in Aleppo, it is possible and not to dramatize the situation. A month ago it was impossible to imagine that Russia can quite easily relate to the fact that the Turks are fighting with ISIS in Syria that hate Assad and the Kurds, and now it is possible. Just last week, everyone said that Russia’s strategic Alliance with Iran, and now the Russian aircraft left the base. I have the feeling that most of the alliances of a temporary nature, and players will form the most unexpected situational coalition.
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