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Monday, October 24, 2016

“Norman four” turned in “channel three”

The fate of Ukraine for the umpteenth time to discuss without the participation of Ukraine. The leaders of Russia, France and Germany, as it became known on Tuesday, agreed to meet and discuss the situation in Ukraine with each other, without Poroshenko. It is noteworthy that at the same time Kiev has suddenly hinted that he is ready for an agreement about breeding the warring parties in the Donbass. That will contain the document and how it is achievable?

On Tuesday, a representative of Kyiv in the sub-group on security issues at the Minsk talks Yevhen Marchuk said the publication “Commander in chief” that on Friday, August 26, the Contact group on settlement in Donbass is planning to finalize the plan for the breeding of the conflicting parties.

“Agreement of the parties, at first it will be kind of squares on the line of contact, two for two kilometers”

According to him, immediately after signing the agreement, the warring parties will begin work to identify the first areas where it will be applied, first, in the experiment.

The peace process has gone the squares

“Agreement of the parties, at first it will be kind of squares on the contact line of two by two kilometers. To see how this will work. There is a preliminary agreement on what the three plots we take in. It is quite troublesome work is all about: ensuring of the regime of silence, and topography, and a clearance” – he explained.

Also on Tuesday the completion of the project for the withdrawal of armed forces from the frontline, said the Ambassador of Ukraine in Germany Andrey Melnik. “Was recently approved this project,” – quoted him TASS. In the near future, according to him, the document should be presented to the leaders of “Norman Quartet”. However, the major issues remain the security issue and the issue of holding the elections in the Donbass, said Miller. In turn, the Ambassador of Ukraine to France Oleh Shamshur lamented the “exaggerated desire” of Paris to hold the elections no matter what, and definitely this year. In his opinion, this is dictated by the peculiarities of the internal policy of France. This choir ambassadors joined and the head of the Ukrainian mission in Canada Andriy Shevchenko. He acknowledged that the international community is tired of the Ukrainian crisis, not only because of the conflict in the Donbass, but due to slow changes in the country.

We will remind: in addition to the cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from the contact line, the Minsk agreement also meant the holding of local elections, an Amnesty for participants of the conflict and the constitutional reform of Ukraine with the special status of certain regions of Donbass.

Simultaneously it became known that Kiev is going to withdraw from the Donbass volunteer “territorial battalions” of the National guard of Ukraine. This was stated by the representative of the people’s militia self-proclaimed Luhansk national Republic Andrey Marochko, citing intelligence reports LC. According to Marochko, it is connected primarily with the fact that these units never became subordinate to the Ministry of defense of Ukraine, remain uncontrollable, which leads to conflicts with the regular units of the AFU (Armed forces of Ukraine).

However, about anarchy in the volunteer battalions reportedly already not the first year. It is possible that the decision to bring them out of Donbass is also associated with Kiev’s decision to finally sign a full ceasefire.

As reported by the website of the Kremlin, the leaders of Russia, Germany and France Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande discussed by phone including a cease-fire in the Donbass, the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from the demarcation line. Noted the need for strict observance of agreements on cease-fire and withdrawal of heavy weapons under the control of the OSCE mission, as well as measures to further de-escalate the situation, “including the dilution of forces and the establishment of demilitarized zones”. Putin reminded the Ukrainian commandos in Crimea, calling it a gross provocation by Kiev.

Without me, reconciled

In the end, the leaders agreed to meet in early September in China, on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, and re-discuss the situation in Ukraine, but only three of us, that is, without the Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko. And it is Poroshenko, as stated in the beginning of August, launched the initiative on the meeting of “Norman format” at the beginning of September in China. It can be assumed that the sudden pliability of Kiev at talks in Minsk connected with the decision of Western leaders to openly start the discussion of the Ukrainian question without the participation of the Ukraine. In the last two years the West has flatly refused such a format.

In addition, it is important to note that Vladimir Putin, in fact, kept his word – referring to his statement immediately after the capture of the Crimea, the Ukrainian saboteurs. “In these circumstances, to meet in “Normandy format”, especially in China, is pointless because, apparently, the people who took in due time the authorities in Kiev and continue to hold her back, instead of finding compromise, instead of looking for ways of peaceful settlement, moved on to practice terror,” – said the Russian President after the incident.

In other words, the incident with the capture of Ukrainian saboteurs, in fact, pushed Poroshenko was extremely important to him in the negotiation process.

Director of the Kiev center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that after the detention of subversive groups in Crimea, the Ukrainian leadership was cornered.

“Moscow was provided by the European partners in the “channel format” and the United States compelling evidence against Kiev in recent Crimean sabotage. In this situation, Poroshenko will have to demonstrate a willingness to make concessions. Therefore, it is likely that on Thursday the Ukraine really will make workable a constructive proposal on divorce of the armed forces in the Donbass. The same Putin again will we sit down at the negotiating table only after demonstrating real action on the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Some handed over by Nursultan Nazarbayev assurances of his willingness to compromise on the little Kremlin”, – said the expert newspaper VIEW.

In addition, Pogrebinsky said that, judging by information from social networks in recent days, significantly increased the losses of the Ukrainian side in Donbas so Kiev is interested in stopping the bloodshed. However, Pogrebinsky remains in question whether Ukrainian version of the agreement for the breeding of the forces adopted by the opposite party in the negotiations.

However, “the opposite side of the negotiations” is extremely optimistic. As reported by the newspaper VIEW, the Plenipotentiary representative LNR on Minsk talks Vladislav Danego earlier, Ukraine took on the issue of withdrawal of armed forces is absolutely non-constructive position and insisted on the things that republics were totally unacceptable. Message Marchuk on the occasion of the divorce of troops two kilometers from the front line to disprove Dana did not, suggesting that Kiev has decided to compromise, and on Thursday will be given a “more constructive version of the” withdrawal of forces.

“Now it all depends on what exactly will be written in the agreement that offers Marchuk. If Ukraine as listened to our proposals and the proposals of the OSCE, we are ready to sign these agreements. Otherwise, progress will not be”, – said Deynego the newspaper VIEW, refusing to clarify what exactly is the latest controversy.

“Golden” plots of the armistice

“The document is, it is already more than three meetings discussed in Minsk, “said RIA” Novosti ” and his colleague from DND Denis Putilin. – There are agreed areas: Petrovskoye in the DNI and LC in gold, but Ukraine made some of nuance in these documents, which is unacceptable to us. All the discussions going around this. As soon as we find a compromise, you can say that a document is ready for signing”.

However, the commander of the “Vostok” battalion of the national militia of the DND Alexander Khodakovsky believes that from a technical point of view, the dilution of forces – for example, a kilometer – may be held at any time, however, the military and political situation for this is still not suitable.

“The tensions on the contact line falls down, the provocations from the Ukrainian armed forces are committed on a regular basis. In addition, it remains unclear the background of Ukrainian acts of sabotage in the Crimea. We have in the Donbass there is reason to believe that what happened in Crimea – part of a larger plan, which included including escalation to our sector of the front. In this situation, the dilution of forces to make simply unrealistic,” – said Khodakovsky newspaper VIEW.

The battalion commander noted that over the recent one-off provocations of the Ukrainian forces took regular. “The clashes and shelling almost stopped in the industrial zone in Yasinovataya, Horlivka, some areas of the South of the Donetsk people’s Republic. In this situation, the challenge before us is to preserve the integrity of our Republic, the divorce of the armed forces may not speak,” – said Khodakovsky.


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