According to Petro Poroshenko, is scheduled for Wednesday, a military parade is intended to demonstrate to the enemy of the Ukrainian power, and allies and partners – “what we have done for two years.” However, in order to know what to demonstrate to Kiev has nothing, to watch the parade is not necessary. That, however, does not negate the risk of resumption of full-scale war in the Donbass.
As you approach the 25 year anniversary of the proclamation of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union increased daily amount of stuffing information about “the strength and power of the new Ukrainian army”, and also about the possible dates of the beginning of large-scale hostilities in the Donbass. Moreover, these possible dates is necessarily tied to the day of Ukrainian independence on the principle of “the week after”. It is an old and common problem – to believe that the plans of others must revolve around your personal mythology (for example, intelligence, counterintelligence and political scientists of the Western world regularly expect terrorist attacks from Islamists on the eve of us national holidays or on the anniversary of 11 September, the capture of Baghdad, the death of bin Laden and the like). Here is the representative of the main intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian defense Ministry Vadim Skibitsky, the figure is almost a cult, said that the tense situation in the Crimea and the Donbass region caused by Russia’s attempt to disrupt the celebration of the independence Day of Ukraine.
“In recent months, Kiev has made some effort to revive several stormtroopers, one of whom even took off. It is possible that it will be possible to revive two”
Meanwhile, in the Donbass, and especially in Russia, all do not care for the quarter-century anniversary of Ukrainian independence, since he (as, indeed, any other) has no relation to the real military-political confrontation. Even Petro Poroshenko admitted that for him is much more important demonstration of what we have done for two years” at a military parade in Kiev. And that essay “How I spent my summer” will be focused not so much on the domestic audience, how much on the external, mainly Western, as in the East to show nothing, and the locals also know the real situation in the Ukrainian army.
Kiev traditionally will try to demonstrate in the parade, their firepower, which, according to the official version, has grown strongly over the past two years. This is usually done by introducing new armored vehicles and heavy weapons. Ukrainians, unlike the Baltic States, military parades which always include elements of masquerade and clownery, really able to paint and make the hammer a sufficient number of tanks and guns, to officially spoil the pavement downtown. In addition to technology, will take place at a measured pace, boxes of military schools and the armed forces. Will almost certainly be some performance like columns of veterans of the ATO, the former battalions of the national guard or festively dressed “Galicians” and “Nachtigall”. But technical and moral state of the army, nothing it will not have.
The number of tanks Ukrainian army has still not returned to pre-war state. In 2009, on its balance sheet number 774 tanks, now in the Donbas a total of no more than 300 tanks, and a year ago was 425. In the last month a number placed under Perekop, but mostly of the rear districts. All two years Poroshenko and other Kiev faces took part in a theatrical transfer of the army of new samples of armored vehicles”. It is possible that these specimens came to the army. But every time it was a single supply or batch of armored cars”, not suitable to participate directly in hostilities (essentially, a “taxi” – lightly armored humvees, intended for delivery of personnel to the front, that is the typical American scheme, which created suffering armored personnel carriers “Bradley”).
Yes, major tank repair plants at some point worked for almost four shifts, but qualitative changes in the armor did not happen. Utilization of the plants due to the need for an emergency order to bring to life “Branham”, preserved since the Soviet times. In addition, the equipment received for repair from Donbas had to be treated several times. New tanks, other armored vehicles, were manufactured and delivered to troops in literally units. In fact, Ukraine can no longer be considered a tank power, the newspaper VIEW wrote.
The number of Ukrainian armored vehicles is reduced not only by the accuracy of the grenade BCH. Not enough parts, there is no system of maintenance stations support near the line, although skilled mechanics like enough (mostly this is the age people who remember the service in the Soviet army). The upgrading of individual parts of the almost entirely “hung” on the volunteers and numerous charitable organizations. The Ministry of defence’s own plans are frankly unable to cope, but succeed in promoting and creating the mythology of the “Patriotic war.”
All this equally applies not only to the vehicles, but also to artillery and missile parts, speaking now solely on their land forces. Despite the fact that a huge number of cannon artillery and RZSO was initially the main advantage of the APU and largely determined the tactics of warfare in the form of terrorizing attacks (and this tactic does not change with time, despite the loud statements about the “strategy review” or even on the transition to “NATO standards”).
In fact, the “new strategy” has been reduced to the use of company groups instead of battalions and the “smearing” of armored vehicles on all fronts, and it’s something out of the experience of the First world war, but not the “NATO standards”. The most lucidly demonstrated by the recent attempt to break through the front in debaltseve, about the same went on the attack on enemy trenches, a small assault team somewhere near Verdun or in Galicia. With the coordination of company groups no one cared, with the result that several of them are trapped in the occupied heights. Send them to the aid of aviation was not for lack of aircraft to cause the aircraft in any difficult situation – it’s just “NATO standard”), and the artillery was protecting herself.
Hopes for Western arms deliveries, too, have long dissipated, but the General attitude of the propaganda in this respect must somehow be maintained. Now the ritual dances are performed around the two British counter-battery radar, which is already on the front line. One of them was broken during transit (dropped during loading), and for the second there was no trained staff. When the craftsmen are still there, the first thing they did was put him next to ward artillery battery, where he was buried together with the same battery.
Another thing is that with the supply of American anti-tank systems it is even worse. Small but close-knit group of Washington officials, lobbying the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine, gradually give up this idea. From the same Opera and periodic “dumping” in Ukraine is outdated or defective British, American and Turkish armoured personnel carriers. The people in the countries of Eastern Europe, including “best friends Kiev”, do not dare to deliveries to Kiev of something serious. You never know what.
About the fleet not talking at all. The new commander of the Navy appointed ideologically aligned tanker, which in itself is significant. Plans for the rearmament of the fleet and the laying of new torpedo boats look unrealizable, and is widely touted Ukraine’s participation in joint NATO maneuvers in the Black sea turned into shame as the only sensible ship “ornament” – to move away from the wall and could not.
With the aircraft more difficult. In recent months, Kiev has made some effort to revive several stormtroopers, one of whom even took off. It is possible that it will be possible to revive the two, but as a maximum. Slightly better situation with helicopters, but has the same problems as with armored vehicles – no parts, resource depleted, new production does not exist. Foreign purchases of helicopters is theoretically possible, but they will result in additional contracts for spare parts and long training, but no money (not expected).
The only resource that APU is not just a lot, a lot, is a living force. Already stated that after the fourth mobilization will begin a new call. Over the past two years have really formed a new “numbered” part is territorial, and their structure was brought up to “modern requirements”. For example, with the mandatory inclusion in the composition of the mechanized brigade, how would a tank battalion, though in the conditions of deficit of some company consist of six to eight tanks, and a sufficient number of no. Specialized armored brigades sprayed on the most notable parts of the front, which also served as a “new tactic”, they say, they must quickly to support the infantry in the attack.
The total size of the army in the Donbas has reached a truly alarming numbers – more than 100 thousand people (according to some estimates – up to 120 thousand). However, its communications are stretched and are not equipped, and the supply – one big problem. Sometimes lack the most elementary, though some parts are defiantly are in good condition, especially in the area of Mariupol, which is of special importance.
Of course, the parade is not irrelevant. The tanks will be painted, the banners will make the bearing fit. Maybe someone will fly over Kiev, and that is especially funny, will probably be “box” in naval uniform. Ideology and mythology, as usual, goes ahead of the reality that Ukraine is fine.
Above that you can banter, and yet do not forget that the front line is now 100-thousand machine with three hundred tanks and thousands of artillery guns. She remains an enormous force which the part of the Donbas is opposed to the system three times smaller. Yeah, well-equipped, trained and motivated, but reflective. And the threshold beyond which policy is relegated to the background, and the war is already long passed. And wait can now be anything, including arbitrarily terrible. Regardless of the holiday dates.