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Thursday, June 29, 2017

The TPP could become the biggest failure of Obama in Asia

The project of cooperation of the US with a dozen Asian countries may not move in Congress, media reported. The TRANS-Pacific partnership do not support either Hillary Clinton or Donald trump or the voters themselves, which makes it even more hopeless idea of Barack Obama on the TPP. But to talk about the decline of US interests in the Asian region before: do not change priorities and tactics, experts say.

One of the main initiatives of President Barack Obama – an agreement on a TRANS – Pacific partnership (TPP) threatens to turn into a failure of US foreign policy in Asia, noted The Wall Street Journal. But this project is of strategic importance to counter the rise of China, reminded the publication.

“The issue of TTP can be considered almost buried in Congress this convocation”

The TPP includes countries that account for 40% of the world economy. The US authorities declared it the main point of reference a few years ago – since then, in Asia, sent a huge military and other resources of the United States. “But now, when the enemies of the Covenant – among both the right and the left in Washington are all more determined, the probability of ratification of the agreement in Congress, an increasingly gloomy” – said the WSJ.

Experts warn that the failure of the TPP will damage America’s reputation in the Asian region in all spheres, including trade and military, meanwhile, States could strengthen the security needed by Asian countries after the Second world war. “For the simple reason that the US has invested too much in this project, he received a total value that goes far beyond its economic viability, Leaving the Asian partners in limbo, the U.S. government will face a catastrophic consequences for the country in the region”, – said the publication Director of the international security program, Lowy Institute Euan Graham.

China does not lose time

The situation with the Covenant came to a peak and can swing in either direction at any time. “Just one vote away from us to either validate our leadership in the region, or handed the keys to the castle China”, – said the head of the United States Trade representative (USTR) Mike Froman.

But this argument has not helped to enlist the support of the Congress, where the Covenant are the majority of Democrats. Even many legislators-Republicans who defended TTP in for many years, retreated from their positions. Do not Express sympathy to the agreement and both presidential candidates. So, Hillary Clinton said she opposes the agreement in its current form. However, it does not completely abandon the TTP, because they supported the agreement as Secretary of state under Obama, reminded the WSJ.

USA “staked stud” in Asia in 2011, when the economic power of China threatened to result in a durable power in the region. The negotiations on the agreement began under George Bush. However, the policy of the latter became more aggressive,” Washington changed intentions, the newspaper reminds. Since that time, tensions only intensified, China all the time seeking to challenge U.S. military superiority, to defend claims to territory in the South China sea and protests against the us missile defense in South Korea, the newspaper notes.

“And now China does not lose time – he is in talks with Asian partners about the agreement, which will leave behind US. The Obama administration warns that, in the end either the US or China will write the rules of world trade. In this guide, Asian countries notes that two of the Covenant are not mutually exclusive, and intend to join both,” said the publication.

“Test your trust and seriousness”

The leaders of the Asian countries still hope that the agreement will be signed after all: “friends and partners of America ratification (TTP) is a test of your trust and seriousness,” – said earlier this month the Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong in Washington. The experts noted that Lee spoke on behalf of all Asian signatories: Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, South Korea and other countries wishing to join the partnership.

“We continue to hope that Obama will be able to ratify the deal during the last months of his tenure,” said former Deputy Minister of trade of Vietnam Luong van Tu.

The United States is deeply integrated in Asia: large-scale trade relations with China and other countries, agreements on security with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines… All this is unlikely to change, regardless of the fate of the Treaty, said The WSJ the experts. But Asian leaders who spent all the power and political capital in support of the Covenant, is unlikely to again be able to do it and next time will simply prefer China. “Obama in all ways tried to persuade the Asian governments to join forces to show that we are unable to confront China,” said the former world Bank regional Director for China and senior researcher at the Carnegie endowment for international peace Yukon Huang. – However, if the Covenant and will not be accepted, they will take a much more skeptical position.”

First in the ranks of the skeptics can become the closest ally of the us and Japan. “Most of all in the name of TTP put at stake, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said the WSJ. – He gave the Covenant a Central role in its domestic and foreign policy, went against the loud protests and other powerful agricultural lobby. The plan is Abe to make Japan the third economy in the world is entirely based on the Covenant as the driving force.”

While the TPP has stalled because of the fact that too much talk about foreign policy and not enough about the economic benefits, said the representative of the Us-China Commission on economy and security Michael R. Wessel. The emphasis on the need to support foreign policy goals in the region is no appeal, he said. “The American worker ad nauseam got tired of the rejection from jobs for the sake of foreign policy goals,” said Wessel.

Buried the project

Chief researcher of the Institute of USA and Canada Vladimir Vasilyev believes that soon a dozen Asian signatories can expect disappointment. There are several reasons and the main is the work schedule of the Congress and prospects of assigned tasks. “In early September, Congress returns from vacation, but in fact the full composition of the house of representatives is elected. At stake are 34 senators, including 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats, a third of the Senate. In fact, now the Congress is busy only one – he will clean up the tail, and the main problem is the adoption of the budget for 2017. It is his constitutional duty, and the draft budget yet. So even according to the schedule the adoption of such agreements is excluded,” he said in an interview with the newspaper LOOK.

“During the election period, no key vote occurs. It’s the American political tradition, if you will – says Vasilyev. – The more that the Republicans voted against the TTP. Opposed by trump. And since they control the house of representatives, it is highly unlikely that it will make some movement on this issue. In making it is interested only the Obama administration, which has developed and “pushed” to the agreement. And the Republicans have an important task – to annoy the administration. And what Obama wants, in spite of today’s Congress will not do” – said the source.

Senators and members of the house of representatives, who will be re-elected, generally avoid the question of TPP in their election campaigns, he added. “Now these campaigns focused on inter-subject. So the question of the TTP can be considered almost buried in Congress this convocation,” – says Vasilyev.

While the Asian region is very interested in the US and plays an even greater role than in Europe, said the expert. So to talk about the freezing of cooperation is in any case impossible. “There is the economic element. The Obama administration has proposed to have a multilateral agreement like the TPP. And the Republicans offer a different approach. They believe that every country must act individually. That is, do not change priorities, and tactics. America is not shifting relations with Asia, it is only about a fundamentally new approach,” the source said.

The position of both presidential candidates are extremely skeptical regarding the TPP, which does not give chance agreement, said in an interview with the newspaper VIEW political scientist-americanist Boris Mezhuev. “Both candidates are against. In the era of the election campaign it is impossible to imagine that the obviously unpopular among voters – and from both parties – the project will be used for the implementation. There is a chance that such projects will be considered after the elections,” he said.

In this project manifested the idea of a post-American world, global power, which is not supported by the American voter, said Mezhuev, as for them it actually means to deny the creation of new jobs.

This rejection of the TRANS-Pacific partnership would undermine the authority of the United States in the Asian countries, he agrees. “To start a project and then quit – of course, this will not help American popularity,” he says.


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