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Thursday, March 22, 2018

The triangle of Moscow – Ankara – Tehran is taking shape

Turkey intends to discuss the creation of a coalition with Iran and Russia against Syrian rebels. To this end, Erdogan will visit Tehran. At the same time a visit can serve to Turkey’s rapprochement with Iran. Both countries claim to superiority in the region, why between them there were serious contradictions. Now, however, say the political scientists, the situation began to change.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next week, decided to visit Tehran. According to the Iranian Fars news Agency, Erdogan will discuss the creation of a coalition of Russia – Turkey – Iran to fight militants in Syria.

“The United States and Europe has left Turkey alone with the problem of refugees to the Kurdish issue, and it is natural that Erdogan began to look for allies in Russia and Iran”

Complex triangle

“This trip is extremely important to establish at a new level of relations between Ankara and Tehran. Part of the visit will be focused on organization of trilateral meeting of Iranian, Turkish and Russian officials to discuss ways to end the war in Syria” – quoted by TASS message of the Fars.

We will remind, during recent visit to St. Petersburg and talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan also discussed ways of ending hostilities in Syria. And this week Russia has begun to use Iranian infrastructure to conduct air operations in Syria.

According to the newspaper Al-Hayat, Erdogan had made a short visit to Iran during the military coup. It was also reported that after this unsuccessful coup, erdoğan first had a phone conversation with Putin and then President of Iran. Therefore, the forthcoming visit could serve to normalize relations between Ankara and Tehran. In turn, the newspaper Al-Arab reports that the parties are supposedly going to form a coalition with the aim of confronting the West.

Last Friday, Ankara a one-day visit was visited by the Minister of foreign Affairs of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif. He also met with Erdogan. Guest strongly condemned the coup attempt in Turkey. “We believe that the coup has no place in our region, the voice and will of the people can not suppress the actions of the military group,” said Zarif.

He said that Iran, Turkey and Russia, three key countries in the region that need to cooperate with each other. Visit Zarifa held after the tripartite meeting in Baku the presidents of Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.

This week the world’s media reported that Turkey may change its policy towards Syria and join the Alliance with Iran and Russia. The Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yildirim announced that Ankara time to improve relations with Damascus to resolve the Syrian conflict with regional players.

Note that Turkey and Iran are actively vying for the role of regional powers, so many interests of Ankara and Tehran were in contradiction, for example, in respect of the same in Syria or Yemen.

Turkey supported the international coalition led by Saudi Arabia, which was held in Yemen, a military operation, while Tehran called operation military aggression. Tehran is for the preservation of the government of Bashar al-Assad, while Ankara demanded his departure.

However, Iran closes a quarter of the Turkish gas demand. In 2015, when agreements were reached on the Iranian nuclear program and Western countries agreed to begin to undo the Islamic Republic of sanctions, Erdogan made a visit to Iran, where mainly discussed energy supplies. However, the cooperation in this sphere did not interfere with the countries to be conflicted on political issues, at least until the last moment.

Shortly before the coup attempt, erdoğan during a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani said that “we are in cooperation with Iran and Russia hand in hand to solve regional problems and increase our steps to return to regional peace and stability”.

Possible, but difficult

According to the analyst, an expert on Russian-Turkish relations Alexander Sotnichenko, the creation of a real coalition between Turkey, Russia and Iran in Syria is theoretically possible, but practically difficult to implement.

“This coalition between key players is necessary for peace in the middle East. At the same time Turkey on one side and Iran and Russia on the other continue to support different forces in the Syrian conflict. Judging by recent events in Aleppo, Ankara has not refused to support the fighters, although this support was for Turkey negative consequences,” Sotnichenko said in an interview with the newspaper LOOK.

However, now that relations between Turkey and the West is experiencing not the best times, Erdogan understands the need to establish allied relations with Russia and Iran. According to experts, during the forthcoming visit to Tehran of the Turkish President will try to strengthen its position in negotiations with Moscow.

This talk about a probable rupture of Ankara with NATO prematurely. To Erdogan finally broke off relations with the Alliance and joined the Russian-Iranian coalition, Moscow and Tehran need to offer the Turkish leader a real alternative to NATO, the expert believes.

“NATO is deeply integrated military and technological Alliance, Russia’s own NATO, unfortunately, no. As a simple example, can indicate that we are at war in Syria since last September, and began to use the base in Iranian Hamadan only recently, but to engage with Iran in the coalition had originally,” – said the expert.

For the sake of retaining power, Erdogan will do anything

Director of the research centre “middle East-Caucasus, Stanislav Tarasov, in turn, recalls that the Western coalition, which includes Turkey, is very much “framed” Erdogan, leaving him alone with a military coup, organized before by the West.

“Now the United States and Europe also have left the Turkey alone with the problem of refugees, instability in the region, with the Kurdish question, and it is natural that Erdogan began to look for allies in Russia and Iran”, – he told in conversation with the newspaper LOOK.

Tarasov also indicates that despite all the disagreements between Ankara and Tehran, brings them together matching the position on the Kurdish issue, implying the preservation of the territorial integrity of Turkey and Iran. “This position was developed in the years of rapprochement between Tehran and Ankara. Now the Kurdish issue is, given the activity of Kurdish groups in Turkey, the question of the territorial integrity of Turkey, for the sake of which Erdogan could again think about the friendship with Iran,” – said Tarasov.

In addition, in his opinion, the Turkish President will not be a serious problem to abandon financial ties to ISIL and support for the militants. “Now the political situation in Turkey is such that jeopardized the power of erdoğan, but for the sake of power, he will do anything,” – said the expert.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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