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Thursday, March 22, 2018

Unrecognized States: to release or attach

In today’s world there are many unrecognized or partially recognized States. Many of them are relatively young, and their appearance, they somehow owe a chain reaction running “the main geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century” — the collapse of the Soviet Union. We are not particularly pointing out the obvious fact that the second decade of the twenty-first century the Russian Federation has been the undisputed world leader in its engagement as a stakeholder in the process related to States with incomplete international legal status.

Proclaimed its independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, the Republic of South Ossetia and Republic of Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s Republic — with all the difference between a they have one unifying factor: their fate, one way or another, at this stage of its development has been linked with the Russian Federation. Russia itself in their attitude uses “individual approach”, which, to put it mildly, gives the obvious difficulties with the formulation of a common strategy with clear goals. Immediately strongly note suspicious if they have someone arose: under this it is not necessary to understand their hypothetical entry into the Russian Federation.

What can cause a similar protracted in time, the lack of certainty?

The best answer to this complicated, however you look at it, the question is a typical example of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, whose appearance has a high degree of affinity with the advent of the light of the Ossetian and Abkhazian republics.

Operation to protect the Turkish population of the island of Cyprus from the rebellion of the “black colonels” was launched by the armed forces of Turkey on 20 July 1974 and continued until mid-August. As a result, the island was divided in two, and unsuccessful Turkish-Greek negotiations on the establishment of the Federal education led to the unilateral Declaration in 1983 an independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Characteristically, any strategic relationships nor linked present-day Turkey with the Islamic world or even with her closest living relative — Azerbaijan, but no country in the world, except the Turkish Republic is still not recognized Northern Cyprus. And in recognition of the dwarf island States like Vanuatu and Nauru, Turkey is not exchanged.

And, contrary to popular belief, relations between Ankara and Lefkosa, well, if the Greek version, — the North of Nicosia, is not so cloudless and those are not quite what they would like to see in the Turkish capital.

The current President of the TRNC Mustafa Akinci came to power in April 2015 under the slogan of unification of the two parts of the island and the integration of Northern Cyprus into the European Union. He has made a number of breakthrough initiatives, in particular, on the refusal of the Turkish Lira and the adoption of the Euro and even entered into polemics with the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan when he fatherly “patted” the Turkish Cypriots on the shoulder, using against them the epithet “little brother.”

Mustafa Akinci, who had shown a well-known forgetfulness on the part of the story and that, perhaps, even more important, about the visible, up to 30% of the Cyprus source of replenishment of the budget, jarred such a manifestation of paternalism, “invalid” in relations between the two “equal” States.

It is important that one of these States has set a goal before the end of this year to reach an agreement on the settlement of the longstanding conflict with its southern neighbor, the Republic of Cyprus. Already in the month of September, there will be several rounds of bilateral, without the direct involvement of the Turkish negotiations at the highest level, the results of which, if successful, will be reported at a special session of the United Nations.

What was it like to see Erdogan, who knows that only officially, in the form of grant aid and concessional loans, the Turkish Republic spends on its Cypriot compatriots, whose number hardly amounts to 300 thousand people, about a billion dollars. Not to mention the construction of the Turkish account of key infrastructure, say, water supply system, connecting Northern Cyprus to the mainland and designed to solve problems with fresh water. Or about the content on the island housing the Turkish armed forces.

Of course, the discovery in the Eastern Mediterranean large deposits of natural gas, including offshore Cyprus, significantly increases the strategic importance of the “overseas possessions” of the Turkish Republic. However, from the point of view of the “recapture” of the investment — is unlikely. Forty years — it is still forty years… and a full, commercial production of gas without a comprehensive settlement is still impossible, and therefore postponed until better times.

However, the farther, the more North Cyprus forgotten the events of forty years ago. Over the years, a new generation of Turks that can’t remember “black colonels” and has a fairly vague idea about what they were saved by the Turkish armed forces. And documentaries with footage of a military chronicle, which as a reminder sometimes shows Turkish TV is a poor tool.

But the local population more fairly common disorder and private inconvenience directly or indirectly arising out of podesheveli territory in international law.

To get to North Cyprus? Only by land through the Republic of Cyprus, as the Northern part proclaimed “Turkish occupied territory”. And be tempted to fly to Lefkoşa — Nicosia direct flights from Turkey or Azerbaijan — this is tantamount to violation of the law that, at best, fraught with the future refusal of entry to Greece or the Greek part of the island.

The passport of the citizen of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as the document recognizes only seven countries in the world. Among them, in addition to the Turkish Republic is the United States, Britain, France and Australia, as well as Pakistan and Tanzania, but it is unlikely this situation makes the Northern Cyprus citizen proud “to get from wide leg” your ID. This is a huge inconvenience for the inhabitants of the island, which thrives on encouraging labor immigration unemployment. Due to the limited suitable for urban development of the territories observed in Japanese high prices per square meter of living space. Salvation is the presence of many second passport in a natural way — either Turkish or remaining with the colonial time of the British.

The economy of North Cyprus, cut off from international trade and foreign investment, the firm is subsidized on the way, trying to get at the expense of the service sector — tourism and education.

Not to say that tours to North Cyprus are cheap compared to the same Republic of Cyprus and, especially, the ‘mainland’ Turkey. However, necessity is the mother of invention, and Turkish Cypriots were able to find in this business niche. Almost all hotels in Northern Cyprus, including a beach are primarily gambling houses having their permanent clientele and attracts visitors from Turkey, UK, Israel and even Greek part of the island.

The international education program of the universities of Northern Cyprus historically, since the days of British colonialism, on top, but all for the same reason they lose in the competition and obviously not get in the audience.

That is, the summing up, where throw — everywhere a wedge, but without solving the fundamental problems of international legitimation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will remain a territory of “backward development”.

Assistant whether the Turkish Cypriots in this question who saved them at the time the Turkish Republic? It seems that is unlikely since if so for forty years the issue has not been resolved, it is unlikely that any breakthroughs, you can expect now. For any task there is a reasonable time of its decision. And if still to remember about what a difficult relationship with President Erdogan now are with the Western world, it may well thought that the metropolis of Northern Cyprus is increasingly becoming not factor in ensuring the survival and burden.

So the prospects and hopes for the future of the Cypriot Turks still lie in the plane of self-settlement and formalization of relations with the Greek neighbours in the island. In readiness for this literally all often accuse the current President of the TRNC Mustafa Akinci his political opponents…

What conclusions from the situation with Northern Cyprus might take Russian Federation?

It seems that their is a lot, considering how it’s similar, of course, adjusted for their age and some particular, with the processes occurring in States not recognized by anyone except the Russian Federation. Can be easily replaced in the text “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” and “Turkish Republic” to “Republic of South Ossetia” and “Russian Federation”, respectively, and to be quite wrong.

So, for example, might judge that naturally arise paternalism in relation to subsidized territories, which, on account of its status as “affected rights” have difficulties with access to self-sufficiency, with the same inevitability begins to cause resentment among the local population, the degree of which is directly connected with the observed their situation.

Well, or it would be fair to say that the long-term “suspension” issue and the lack of certainty in the position of the metropolis turn into a simple “welding” with its vast budget money in territories, which, in turn, inevitably will seek international recognition. But after some time, as loss of hope, they will begin to do it independently, that is without the Russian Federation. However, don’t forget to have a competent strategy “tender calf”, which is known to be “two mothers”.

What should we do? Give my purely personal view that, to then not be surprised the “short memory” of people and “black ingratitude”, it makes sense to take a purely pragmatic and completely devoid of any sentimentality position, simple as trigger the two settings: “release”, or “attach”. The third way, that is peacemaking for the sake of peacekeeping, it is better to leave specialized supranational agencies, the same blue helmets of the UN, where Russia as a permanent member of the security Council involved.


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