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Saturday, October 22, 2016

The Minsk agreement is increasingly questioned

Petro Poroshenko wants but can’t achieve progress in the issue of decentralization of Ukraine – an important condition of the Minsk agreements. Even Ukrainian experts doubt the sincerity of Poroshenko – he probably just stalling. There are indications that more is brewing opinion on the revision of the Minsk agreements themselves.

Petro Poroshenko is ready to compromise on the issue of Donbass, but it was resistance in Parliament. This was stated by the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, who in the beginning of the year was considered for the role of the informal negotiator between Russia and Ukraine. Thus, the Ukrainian President once again recognized the failure to comply with the terms of the Minsk agreements.

“Putin has already stated that the “Normandy format” is inappropriate. Once there is the “Normandy format”, then no reinforcements the Minsk agreements that are in a deadlock”

In search of a compromise

“Poroshenko recently called me (and said) that make the status of Donbass and the second region, which is there, does not allow (lack of) he has a majority in Parliament. It is necessary to solve other issues. Also, I think (he) inclined to find compromises, but somehow are not. All these questions, of course, give you a burden for Russia, but they are solved”, – quoted Nazarbayev, arrived for talks with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, RIA “Novosti”.

President Nazarbayev spoke about the attempts by Poroshenko to hold in Parliament a bill on decentralization, opposed by many MPs. Poroshenko has long assured the public that he will persuade MPs to vote for amendments to the Constitution that are required to consolidate the decentralization process. Last time he said that he would be able to achieve, at the beginning of June. This decision by Poroshenko demand not only in Russia and the Donbass, but also in Western countries.

Recall that in the text of the Minsk agreement in the 11th paragraph provides as follows: “the constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of the year 2015 new Constitution, involving as a key element of decentralization (taking into account the characteristics of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these districts), as well as the adoption of the permanent law on the special status individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in the note, until the end of 2015.”

For the implementation of this paragraph should follow the “restoring full control over the state border from the Ukrainian government throughout the conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after local elections and end after the comprehensive political settlement (local elections in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the basis of the law of Ukraine and constitutional reform)” as prescribed in paragraph 9 of the Minsk agreements.

Make these changes still failed, although a bill proposing a constitutional changes on decentralization was adopted by Parliament in first reading in August 2015. The political crisis has become her reason for braking the adoption of any laws – in 2016, the ruling coalition has virtually collapsed, resigned Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, his place was taken by Vladimir Groisman. Formed in the end, the coalition is recognized by experts as shaky and ineffective, and inside it is dominated by disagreement and opposition in the Parliament has strengthened its position.

The crisis of the Minsk agreements

Requirements to accelerate the implementation of the Minsk agreements came to Kyiv many times, but it has not brought the desired effect, which casts doubt on the validity of the agreements themselves. So, the latest incident with the detention of Ukrainian saboteurs in the Crimea can and does lead to the breakdown of negotiations in the “Norman format.” Thanks to them, had previously approved the text of the Minsk agreements.

“Of course, in these circumstances, to meet in “Normandy format”, especially in China, it’s pointless. I think all it is already obvious that the current authorities in Kiev are not looking for solutions through negotiation and move to terror,” said Putin after the arrest of saboteurs, which killed two Russian soldiers. Note that not yet been officially announced about the refusal of Russia’s participation in the meeting to be held on the sidelines of the G20 summit in China.

Himself Petro Poroshenko, meanwhile, believes that the Minsk agreement it is almost done. “Ukraine has clearly proven that 95% of all political obligations fulfilled and 100% security. And in this situation it is vitally important for us that Russia has fulfilled the criteria of safety, to launch a political process,” he said in July. By the time the deadline for the implementation of the above paragraph 11, have been overdue for more than six months.

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande periodically turn to Kiev with calls to accelerate the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but those calls are extremely blurred. “We discussed the situation in Ukraine and the obstacles that hinder the implementation of the Minsk agreements. We are reminded that you must comply with the provisions of the agreements regarding the cease-fire, exchange of prisoners of war, and to make sure the elections were held in the East of Ukraine,” – said Hollande in March. With similar calls in the West often turn to Moscow.

Because of the systematic failure of the Minsk agreements in the expert community discussed the possibility of revising current paragraphs and replace them with new ones, as well as the adoption of a new format, capable of much stronger influence on Kiev. Recent developments once again forced to talk about it. However, to argue the appearance of the “Minsk-3” no hurry. Moreover, the probability of failure of “Minsk-2” scares all parties to the negotiations. “The failure of the Minsk agreements can have serious consequences and give rise to a resumption of full-fledged hostilities. You need to look for an opportunity to put pressure on Kiev in the execution plan of the “Minsk-2” – said on August 12, the official representative of DND in Minsk negotiating group Denis Putilin.

The fact that Kiev is not going to fulfill Minsk agreement, it became obvious long ago, a political analyst, a member of the public chamber Maxim Grigoriev. “Promptly after conclusion of the Minsk agreements, it became obvious that Ukraine does not want and will not respect them. The Ukrainian political regime has not fulfilled almost any of the items. But while European countries and the United States do not understand and do not take pressure on the Ukrainian regime, no hope for the observance of treaties”, he said.

But Grigoriev sees no point in revising existing agreements. “Negotiations with Ukraine have no meaning in the absence of a significant military component, which makes Kiev to adhere to some agreements, as it was before the Minsk agreements. Only then will the threat of losing a significant part of the territory and a complete loss of the army forced Ukraine to sign Minsk agreements. Either need hard coercion on the part of European countries”, – the expert believes.

However, the last option is the pressure from Western partners – is hardly feasible, he said. “The United States will not go for it, most likely before the presidential election. In the case that trump will win, America’s position may change,” he said. While discussing the prospects of talks, he is skeptical. “As the Ukraine did not want to perform the Minsk agreement, they will not carry out any other agreement,” he said.

“Poroshenko hang noodles on the ears”

First Deputy Chairman of the Duma Committee on international Affairs Leonid Kalashnikov (CPRF) believes that Poroshenko actually tells a lie, claiming that he has no majority in Parliament for the adoption of the amendments on decentralization. “When he had to perform certain acts related to de-communization, he did it very quickly and got most of it. A number of laws were passed in the Parliament, which demanded even sometimes a constitutional majority,” – reminded the Deputy.

Kalashnikov stressed that Nazarbayev is a very respected man since the days of the Politburo and its value as an elder, sage and politics. “So if he has some conversations with Poroshenko, they will in any case benefit the business,” – said Kalashnikov newspaper VIEW.

That Poroshenko is hardly honest with Nazarbayev, assured and the Director of the Ukrainian Institute of society transformation Oleg Soskin. According to him, Poroshenko since the advent of the post of President had not fulfilled any of his promises, and all its words are only used to cover up lies.”

And in any case when deciding the Donbas there is a problem of boundaries. “Until the border is under the control of Ukrainian forces, no changes in the situation on the land the Donetsk and Luhansk region can not be. If Ukraine will take control of the border, there will come a period of filtration. About this Poroshenko said that a possible compromise. Just these people do not shot, and there will be a filtration camp, and if Russia wants to, she can pick up these people. Otherwise, no way. Elections there impossible, not yet established control over the border,” – said Soskin newspaper VIEW. According to Ukrainian political analyst, pay again your attention to this directly contradicts the text of the Minsk agreement, which States that first there are elections, and then the transfer of border control of Ukraine.

If Poroshenko tries to take any action without establishing border control, “it will sweep away literally within weeks, and in severe form.” “And so the people barely tolerate it. Poroshenko is buying time, somehow lifts a weight… Nazarbayev Poroshenko hang noodles on the ears that he makes it almost his entire adult life”, – said the analyst.

As for the prospects of implementation of the Minsk agreements, Soskin believes that it is impossible under any scenarios. “Putin has already stated that the “Normandy format” is inappropriate. Once there is the “Normandy format”, then no reinforcements the Minsk agreements that are in dead end. No task not met, including the release of prisoners of war. So what is their point? Obama will be gone, Merkel, most likely, too, like Hollande. Already format would be no. So not even the guarantors of the Minsk agreements. Other people will come,” he says.

Thus, the main task Poroshenko, according to the analyst, is that the Minsk agreement “was dying slowly, imperceptibly, over a long period of peace.”

“Poroshenko understands that any explosive situation threatens his power. For example, Russia can say that anymore it will not let the leadership of the LC and the DNI does so at their own risk. And they will attack. Poroshenko understands that he does not wriggle, he is not to hide, because, God forbid, will break through the front line, it just hangs with all his friends”, – the expert predicts.


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