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Sunday, March 25, 2018

Iran is a new ally of Russia? Not so fast, gentlemen

In 1946 the Soviet tanks tried to make a forced March on Tehran: Stalin wanted to wring his hands, the young Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and turn the country into a satellite of the Soviet Union. In 1986, the Iranian regime led by Ayatollah Khomeini strongly supported the Afghan Mujahideen who were fighting Soviet troops. And in 2016 Iran and Russia became official military allies. To the amazement of the observers, Iran has provided Military-space forces of the Russian Federation the airfield on its territory for strikes on Syria.

photo: facebook.com

The Americans — “sworn friends” of Russia and Iran reacted to the news very painful. And this can be easily explained. In 1946, it’s tough reaction of the United States and other Western countries would not allow Stalin to implement his plan and to face down the Shah of Iran. And in 1953, the Americans at the instigation of the British, staged in Iran, a coup and overthrew the government tried to pursue an independent line of Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh’s. Since then and until the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, this country was considered the main Outpost of the United States in the middle East. Americans strongly supported the regime of the Shah and armed his army with the most modern weapons. But even during close us-Iranian Alliance, Washington failed to obtain the consent of the Shah to place its troops on its territory. The American military presence in Iran was limited to numerous advisors and stations for electronic surveillance on the border with the Soviet Union. To give Americans something more to Iran has not allowed a heightened sense of national pride.

The fact that now in Iran there was a Russian military planes for America emotionally very unpleasant. Supposedly, Putin has effortlessly managed what we could not achieve for several decades.

All of this is superimposed on the overall “complex of Iran”, which can not remove the foreign policy elite of the United States. Iran in the eyes of American politicians is a synonym of the word “humiliation”. In Washington well remember how at the junction of the 70-ies and 80-ies close to the Iranian authorities “revolutionary students” for several years held hostage U.S. Embassy staff, and U.S. President Carter nothing I could do about it. Not forgotten in Washington and on the more recent offense. Organized thirteen years ago by President Bush, the American invasion of Iraq a few years later led to the fact that the government of this country was under the de facto Iranian control.

So if you focus on the psychological side of the question, we can say: Putin has once again managed to strike a blow at American pride. But international politics is not only and not so much from the war of egos. And based on that I would not treat the emergence in Iran of our military aircraft as a clear foreign policy victory for Russia.

It seems to me, is about the technical way to achieve victory where it is in dire need of Russia and Iran in Syria. Due to various and not concurrent causes Moscow and Tehran nourish the prospect of a collapse in Syria, the Assad regime a threat to their interests. Now, the regime is again staggered. Russia and Iran are doing everything to expose his shoulder. Temporary quartering of Russian bombers on Iranian territory facilitates this task. That’s the whole secret of their appearance.

We witnessed the birth of a strategic Russian-Iranian Alliance. We have witnessed the coincidence of Russian and Iranian interests at this particular stage in international politics. This, of course, does not mean that Russian-Iranian cooperation has no prospects of widening and deepening. But this depression should have their clear boundaries — the boundaries of conformity to Russian interests. After all, Iran is a self — contained power, which is used to carry private cargo. Some elements of this game for us. Some not at all. For example, Iran is a very long wanted and maybe still wants) to acquire nuclear weapons. To us it categorically is. There are other areas where we have been, are and will be serious contradictions.

Now of course, all this recedes into the background. We have a common urgent task is once again “saving private Assad”. However, our leaders must always keep in mind: Iran to Russia is not so much a friend and ally, how many temporary traveling companion. Although, of course, pleased that our paths converged. I would like to continue to correspond as long as possible.


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