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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The fight of trump and Clinton intervened third force


The upcoming elections in the US are different in that both main candidates – Clinton and trump have a very large list. In these conditions dramatically increases the importance of candidates from third-parties now do have the potential to radically change the balance of the race. And among these people a lot of very interesting characters.

Say at once: American suffrage, leaves no candidates from third parties a serious chance to be elected on a more or less significant post, and without exception all exceptions, such as actor and wrestler Jesse Ventura, who became Governor of Minnesota from the Reform party. The fact is that all elected officials in the United States are distributed according to a majoritarian system and one district – one winner who takes all. If Russia and other countries, which has a proportional or mixed system, small party, in order to be in the Parliament, it is necessary to overcome the barrier of a few percent of the votes, in America they need to win at least one single-member district. This situation inevitably provokes the formation of a system with several (two or three strong parties and a pile of extras in the background.

The “left bet on Estela Gloria La Riva. This is a fan of Fidel Castro who translated one of his books in English, in 2008-m already ran for President”

However, independent candidates and small parties can participate in elections of any level. And to discount them just “default” still not worth it.

History lesson

In the 1992 US presidential election as an independent candidate participated billionaire Ross Perot, who as a result, 19% of the votes, which was one of the best results of the “third candidates” in many years. Yeah, couldn’t win a single state, it has not received a single vote from the electoral College, but the Pen is active were selected by votes from running for a second term of George Bush. This allowed bill Clinton to win in some traditionally conservative States, and easily elected the 42nd President.

In the current campaign, when Hillary Clinton and Donald trump have an impressive rating, third-party candidates also have the opportunity to influence the final distribution of votes significantly. So that the situation can be truly sensational.

Strictly speaking, U.S. citizens do not vote for presidential candidates and for the composition of the electoral College, which formalizes the choice of the nation.” Such “indirect” system causes confusion among the citizens of other countries, but for US it is quite logical. In the conditions of XVIII–XIX centuries a potential President could not, as now, to travel from state to state, campaigning for his person. In direct elections, the citizens would be asked to elect a man who in their state has never been and is not the fact that ever will be. Even the Telegraph by that time come up have not yet, or news of a particular state in the capital learned with a considerable delay. And most importantly, a “cordial Union of the colonies” on the device was much closer to a Confederation and essentially depended not so much on the President, how many of those people who carried out his policies on the ground – for them-and offered to vote. At that time it was the right decision, right now, in fact, nothing more than a tribute to tradition.

In order to become President, a candidate must enlist the support of 270 electors (50% plus one vote). If this suddenly happens (and these cases in the nineteenth century there were), the President elect, the house of representatives from among the three candidates with the highest number of votes. At the moment the majority of the house Republicans, but does not the fact that congressmen want to support Donald trump. And then the main a political Thriller of the season will get very interesting sequel.

50 circles of purgatory

The United States has no unified electoral law, and each state has its own criteria for admission of candidates from “minor parties” to the election. So your name was in the presidential or Governor’s newsletter, for example, in Louisiana, you need to pay a $ 500 registration fee. In new York for the same candidate from your party in the last election sentirsi must score at least 50 thousand votes. Alternative – collection of signatures (their number also varies from state to state) or “stratagem” – support for the candidate of one of the two major parties. That is your political force is officially nominated for Governor of the state of the same candidate that the Democrats or Republicans – and all take honor and respect, as well as the right to participate in all the ongoing state elections, including presidential. In fact, five of the eight parties eligible to nominate candidates under the simplified scheme, is well done.

In some other States, conditions are even tougher. That is, to get to the “presidential newsletter”, to pass a complicated procedure, and 50 different treatments – the number of States. Otherwise some mi candidate will be presented, and in Alabama, no. The truth is that in Michigan, Alabama, at a polling station in the Moscow Embassy the US citizen has the right to write on the ballot any name – even vote for Putin, at least for the mother of dragons, Targaryen Daenerys, America is a free country. Precedents when an unregistered candidate won the election at the grassroots level in some of the local legislature, have already been.

However, when an independent candidate will go through the registration in all 50 States, it will still be exposed to all sorts of discrimination. As long as the American equivalent of the polls commits his approval rating at 15%. The latter, who managed to overcome this barrier, – the same Ross Perot.

Castro, the CIA, BDSM

In the USA there are about 40 small parties, each of which anyway will try to participate in national elections. Some of them organize a coalition and nominate a single candidate, as, for example, a number of small left-wing parties (the Party of socialism and freedom Party peace and freedom and Free United party), making a bet on Estela Gloria La Riva of California. This is a fan of Fidel Castro who translated one of his books in English, in 2008-m already ran for President and got 6821 voice of the voters. Her colleagues in the struggle for communism from the once-beloved in the USSR, the Socialist workers party, in turn, nominated for President a seamstress Allison Kennedy of Indianapolis (with the famous Kennedys in the relationship she is not). With the passage of the filters she is worse than left rivals – until Kennedy can compete for only 35 votes in the electoral College, while La Riva – 135 (from 538).

Professional BDSM dominant from new York, Tara Indiana promises to tell Trump to take his place (photo: twitter.com/TaraIndiana)

Much more well-known independent candidate and former CIA agent Ivan McMullin, which is good, but hardly deliberately pushing the channel ABC. He promises to fight Clinton, and Trump immediately, but to give this fight is only in two States. Even worse Tara Indiana is a professional BDSM dominant from new York. On their campaign posters she whips the whip of the man in the rubber mask trump and promises to tell the billionaire in his place in life, but is not currently registered as a candidate in any of the States.

Also worth noting is the Constitutional party of the United States. As a minimum, because it 438 thousand registered members, and the nominee of the party will be able to claim 187 electoral votes. This nominee was 68-year-old teacher from Tennessee Darrell castle, who believes that the salvation of America is to withdraw from NATO, UN, WTO and other globalist entities.

Forehand

All this, of course, trivia. But among the minor parties, the United States isolated and two large, really powerful forces – the Libertarian party and the green Party. A candidate from one of them, apparently, will finish third. But under certain circumstances, described above, can even lead in the United States.

The policy applying for the post of President of the United States (infographic)Libertarians besides put an end to any attempts by trump to win in new Mexico, that is, have a direct effect on the final distribution of votes. For the second time in a row their candidate named Gary Johnson – former Governor of new Mexico, during the period of his governorship (1995-2003) who was a Republican. Many conservative-minded residents of the state are willing to vote for his countryman. Also, the state is home to a large number of immigrants from Mexico and South America that trump, to put it mildly, dislike. While new Mexico- oscillating state, where the difference in the support of Democrats and Republicans has traditionally estimated a couple of percent. Thus, in the presence of the Bulletin of the Johnson Trump easier to donate five local electors Clinton and not to spend forces in new Mexico.

Theoretically, Johnson might even “take” home state. And if neither Clinton nor trump can’t take the barrier of 270 electors, he will be in the step from the White house. Libertarians are radicals and in the economic (but not social) agenda is quite close to the Tea party – right movement within the Republican party. For establishment people they are not strangers (so, a couple of Johnson as the Vice-President will be another former Republican Governor William weld of Massachusetts), although not the most pleasant. So if Johnson finishes third, and the fate of the presidency will address the house of representatives, it is possible that the Republican Congress will give their preference to him, not “unbearable Trump”.

In General, libertarians are committed to the election in the States, giving a total of 456 votes of the electors, that is, theoretically can win at once – without parliamentary tricks.

Green revenge

If libertarians will spoil the statistics Trump the Clinton need to worry about the green Party. The first female President can suddenly become not herself, but a professional physician Jill Stein, nominated again by environmentalists. The easiest way to describe Stein as Bernie Sanders in a skirt, so she will fight for the votes of the left flank of the Democrats, clearly offended on Clinton and the party elites. In theory, Stein could claim 435 electoral votes, but in practice to seriously compete for his native Sanders of Vermont. Moreover, the movement of the Progressive party of Vermont”, which is headed by Sanders and green are longtime friends and allies.

Another state where the leader of the environmentalists has a good position, it’s Massachusetts, the student capital of America and the state in which Stein not just lives, but also twice ran for Governor. All measurements Sanders was guaranteed to win the primaries in Boston, but in the end, with a minimum advantage won by Clinton, which gave rise to many unfounded rumors of fraud. So in November, Democrats run the risk to see there is a typical protest vote, which will lead either to an unexpected victory in Massachusetts trump, or even more unexpected victory Stein.

At the moment, neither Stein nor Johnson can’t even boast a rating of 15%, which will give them the opportunity to participate in the national debate. Four years ago, the libertarian won the election with 1 250 000 votes, or 1%, ecologist – a little less than half a million. At the moment their ratings are higher, but still not exceed a few percent.

However, the elections are still three months. And if one of the second tier of candidates suddenly “shoot”, it will be an extremely unpleasant surprise for either trump or Clinton.

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