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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Experts accused the Rosstat in fraud

No doubling to 25 million the number of high-performance workplaces (ITRM) by 2020, as required by one of the famous may decrees of the President four years ago, will not. To such conclusion experts of the Stolypin club, analyze the current situation on the labour market. This means that in the coming years the economy just not worth it to wait for a substantial increase of productivity and other disruptive things. On the contrary, according to Rosstat, the decline ITRM, and despite the fact that official statistics are clearly too high. It includes highly paid civil servants, law enforcement officers, whose contribution to the generation of added value and revenue is difficult to account. Next week, on this occasion will be a meeting of the government. Officials will be discussed.

photo: Alexander Astafyev

As you know, in 2012, Putin immediately after his inauguration demanded the government to increase productivity in half by 2018 and, accordingly, to increase by 2020 the number ITRM with 12.5 to 25 million. For clarity, note recognized high-performance workplaces in the organizations in which productivity is above the industry threshold of 1.5.

In “fat” times thought it was real. In 2013 and 2014, Rosstat recorded growth VPRM to 17.5 and 18.2 million, respectively. However, last year the figure dipped to 16.8 million the total number of jobs had dropped to 61 million, despite the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol.

If you look in the regional context, the leaders in the growth ITRM — Moscow region, Saint-Petersburg, Tatarstan, Moscow, Sverdlovsk, Bashkortostan. It is here that the “creative destruction” where old and inefficient jobs are being replaced with new, creating a high value added per worker, is the most rapidly.

It would seem that it’s just statistics. A set of dry figures. Decreased they have decreased… so what? However, these numbers mask the real reserves for the “big jump”.

On one such workplace is created at 16.3 times more value added than all other organizations. For enterprises on simplified taxation system, this difference is equal to 8.6 times.

However, the devil as always is in the details. The fact that the country still does not have a uniform approach how to count WPM. Methodology of Rosstat, which is based on the rate of wages per worker, leads to an overestimation of the number BPRM in companies with large salaries, but not always high performance. We are talking primarily about the different budgetary institutions, state companies, etc.

The wage is a rather dubious indicator of assessment of efficiency of work of officials or employees of thousands of so-called development institutions like RUSNANO or the Agency for strategic initiatives, which are directly responsible for stimulating the growth of non-oil commercial sector.

In some companies has witnessed rapid growth of incomes compared with labor productivity. In “Rosnano” salaries of more than 300 thousand rubles per month will not surprise anyone. And a get (in other words do not pick up) and more than a million. Despite the fact that net loss of the Corporation for the first half of 2016 increased three times — up to 8.3 billion rubles.

Therefore, alternatively, the experts suggested that the system used in OECD countries. “There as a base to determine VPRM take the data on value added or revenue per worker,” explains one of the authors of the study Anastasia Alekhnovich. — This net contribution of enterprises in GDP. All these figures are pretty easy to calculate based on tax reports: gross profit, payroll and insurance payments to off-budget funds.”

So if you calculate VPRM, as is done in the OECD, their number has almost returned to the level of 2012, reaching 15.33 million Experts threw out half a million jobs assigned by Rosstat from the fields of public administration, security, financial market, real estate and services.

But the reverse situation for most commercial sectors. In trade, the General level of wages low, but the rapid development of the retail network resulted in a dramatic increase investments in this sector in the economy. For the same reason, Rosstat was undervalued the contribution of the manufacturing sector. Although this is the sector with the highest added value.

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