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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

“United Russia” loses the advantage: the CEC came up with the honest lot before the election

On Friday the Central election Committee of the party admitted to elections in the state Duma, will be cast: which one will take first place in the newsletter, and what content stitching in hard-to-read “swamp” of contenders for the vote. Statistically we already know that the candidate or party that received a first place in the ballot, getting 2% more votes than if they were in the form under the other rooms. Just due to the fact that the first line in the eyes of the voters (especially undecided) catches the first. A definite advantage over the rest of this time and get a party that has in list No. 14 (i.e., the first since the end of the long party list in this century), but this bonus will have less.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Still, contrary to probability theory, if draws of the “United Russia” had an incredible number of first places on the ballot. For example, during the draw before the last uniform day of voting the ruling party took nearly half the first positions on elections in regional Sachs: it was No. 1 in 5 constituent entities of the Russian Federation of 11, where elections to the legislative Assembly. In all of these subjects have won.

The probability that one and the same party won the draw in almost half of the regions is so small that it makes no sense to bore the reader of its value. But this mathematical miracle was repeated from year to year.

And now, the CEC decided: everything will be new. The probability that the Bears will take the first place, will be the same as everyone: that is, in this case — one fourteenth. (Or one fifteenth if the CEC on Friday morning to allow the participation in the campaign of another party).

– In the Federal legislative procedure of the draw is not fully developed. How to spend it — decide the election Commission, – told “MK” a former CEC member, Chairman of the Board of the Russian public Institute of electoral law Igor Borisov.

Therefore, and held her still as you like. For example, in “MK” there is information that the ball of the “United Russia” before the draw, taking place in some regions, simply heated, and then placed in the drum, and the facilitator of the lottery was not difficult to find and get it first.

As reported “MK” the organizers of Friday show, the CEC head Ella Pamfilova has decided that now everything will be different. The draw will be attended by the representatives of all admitted to the procedure parties. Each of them will choose a ball to taste and can explore on the subject of temperature and other differences. Then put inside the card with the name of the party, and the ball inside the drum. Themselves party members will turn the drum and pull out his balls — by agreement among themselves. “The members of the CEC never touch neither of balls, nor the Lotto and will only take minutes,” – said Pamfilova.

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