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Saturday, October 22, 2016

The actions of the commandos in Crimea has brought Ukraine to an extremely dangerous point

Kiev authorities move to terror, said President Vladimir Putin, commenting on the detention of Ukrainian saboteurs in the Crimea. Is Poroshenko decided on the escalation of the situation on the border with Crimea? Russia, of course, will not be back to put air strikes on positions of the Ukrainian army, and yet on the effects of the incursions of sabotage on Russian territory have more to worry Moscow, and Kiev.

“Very disturbing information indeed, our intelligence agencies have prevented a penetration on the territory of Crimea diversionno-prospecting group of the Ministry of defense of Ukraine”, – said on Wednesday evening Vladimir Putin, who called the attempt of subversive act stupid and criminal efforts to divert attention from domestic problems.

“The beginning of the terrorist war against the Crimea will put Kiev in a very dangerous situation”

Speaking of the two dead Russian soldiers, the President noted that, “of course, by such things to pass will not.” Putin has called into question outlined at the beginning of September the meeting “Norman Quartet”:

“Of course, in these circumstances, to meet in the Normandy format, especially in China, is pointless because, apparently, the people who took in due time the authorities in Kiev and continue to hold her back, instead of finding those compromises… I Think all it is already obvious that the current authorities in Kiev are not looking for solutions through negotiation and move to terror”.

Worrying reports from Crimea have started to arrive from Sunday – there was information about the closure CPT, troop movements, rumors about trying to break saboteurs. On Wednesday afternoon, the FSB reiterated attempts to break through, as the death of his officer and another soldier during the RAID. Informed about the prevention of terrorist attacks, fire support from the Ukrainian side when trying to break the commandos, said about the arrest of an employee of the military intelligence of Ukraine. Does this mean that we are dealing with an attempt of Kiev to aggravate relations with Russia?

Provocations on the border as attempts to create problems for Crimea, continued since the return of the Peninsula to Russian jurisdiction. It is clear that attempts (successful and not) as casting saboteurs, and the organization of locals of the underground network were made more than once. But it is not always about them, reports the FSB. But this time it was two dead on our side, and it is clear that what happened is beyond “normal” limits. Is there a real threat of further escalation of the situation?

The incident on the Crimean border coincided with several events – the assassination attempt on the leader of the Lugansk Republic Carpenter and the intensification of skirmishes on the contact line between DPR and Ukraine, a visit to Russia, Erdogan, that is, the reconciliation between Moscow and Ankara, very bad for Kiev. In addition, the West all the more insistent demands from Kiev to finally adopt the laws, envisaged by the Minsk agreements – and this would be discussed at the planned at the beginning of September on the sidelines of the summit of “Big twenty” in China, the meeting of “Norman Quartet.”

To push the laws through Parliament, Poroshenko can’t, but understands that at the meeting with Merkel, Hollande and Putin will need to not just try to translate the arrows on Russia (which runs worse and worse), but how else to explain the delay to the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Maybe Kiev has decided to use the Crimea for the distraction, that is, to try to destabilize the situation on the Peninsula, until the terrorist attacks?

It seems unlikely that Poroshenko had such a complex combination. Most likely, we are dealing with “routine” work of Kiev to maintain tension on the border with the Crimea. Of course, Kiev would like to present to the world a picture of the “resistance to the Russian invaders from the Crimean partisans”, but even through anti-Russian sentiments of the Crimean Tatars did not manage to organize anything serious. Expect success and sabotage groups? It is naive, to say the least. Of course, even with all the massive work that are in Crimea, the Russian special services, it may happen that the Ukrainian saboteurs will be able to organize one or two attacks. But that’s just what will be the consequences?

Diversionary war the Ukrainian secret services on the territory of Donbass does not cause retaliatory actions of Russia. That is, the Republic themselves, of course, responsible, but quite moderately and given the need to preserve a General truce in shelling and clashes mainly observed), and refrain in General from large-scale carrying out similar acts of sabotage on the territory of Ukraine. But the beginning of the terrorist war against Crimea, that is, the transition from the blockade and provocations on the border for attacks on the Peninsula leaves Ukraine in a very dangerous position and it is unlikely that there do not understand. That is, can not understand certain military, representatives of the security service or policy, but certainly understands the political leadership headed by Poroshenko.

No, Russia is, of course, will not be back to put air strikes on positions of the Ukrainian army on the border with Crimea. But an asymmetric response may have far more serious consequences.

What Kiev is afraid of? Attack of the Russian army from the Crimea and the simultaneous attack from the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. It is clear that Russia is not going to do or recommend the republics to attack the West. Instead, Moscow is determined to legalizing the current status quo. That is to make sure that the Republic was safe, and Kiev has officially accepted the “temporary” loss of control of the LC and the DNI. If this path will lead to the destabilization of the situation in Ukraine and the struggle for power in Kiev – the better, because it will bring the moment of truth and the onset of a period of the cleansing of Ukraine from the elite of the favorites.

If no – then will be waiting a long time for ripening in the Ukraine right situation. The only condition: Kiev, at least at the state level, not trying to resort to terrorism on Russian territory. Because the transition this line will lead to a change in the Russian tactics in the Ukraine.

But is August 6-8 during the events in Crimea, Kiev is not crossed the line? Not yet, although we came very close to it. But not so much yet, most of all, we are talking about the actions of the saboteurs are not of the soldiers of the Ukrainian army, although in coordination with the military intelligence. Yes, “volunteers” nominally independent. But with the collapse of the state, which we see in Ukraine, it is clear that competing political-oligarchic clans are capable of almost anything.

Including on the organization of sabotage through power structures. As the basis of their desire, if not to provoke a war with Russia, then at least critically weaken the position of the same Poroshenko, who now for the sake of power forced to act as the “dove of peace” and a supporter of the Minsk agreements.

Does this mean that Poroshenko is in principle not capable of “subversive war”? Of course not, but now it is absolutely contraindicated. He has all bad, inside the country and outside it (the approach of the American elections with more than likely win the trump, the training of Europeans to the easing of sanctions, the rapprochement between Putin and Erdogan).

If the President of Ukraine really decided on the organization of sabotage (and gave the nod to what was happening in those days), it can only mean one thing – he is so much afraid of the impending new phase of domestic turmoil that is ready to go for the most insane and, in fact, suicidal action.

You need to understand that complete peace on the Crimean border is reached only after the change of Kyiv elite. But zaigryval already to the saboteurs, she brings this long-awaited moment. And after him, in the next step, the border itself becomes conditional, when Ukraine will return to the Russian world.

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