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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Sabotage in the Crimea and the attempt on Carpenter pursue common goals

APU revised their tactics in the Donbas, and the assassination of the head of the LC, and the attempt of sabotage in the Crimea, it seems that some of the same tactics. Kiev is looking for a reason for the resumption of active hostilities, at the same time trying “to wreak havoc behind enemy lines” and divert Moscow’s attention. In this case we are really talking about is extremely dangerous processes.

Those who appreciate Ukrainian sabotage in the Crimea as a “trial balloon” in an attempt to return the Peninsula by force, obviously mistaken. This story is not about Crimea, it is about the Donbass, which now are openly threatening processes. The same part of the overall mosaic is an attempt to eliminate the head LNR Igor Carpentry.

The scheme of escalation

“Noteworthy that the Ukrainian subversive group worked fairly well and was openly supported by the equipment APU on the other side of the border”

The investigation has not yet determined the key versions of attempt at Carpentry, but inclined to the most obvious terrorist act, carried out sabotage and reconnaissance group, arriving from the front lines. In favor of such diversion indicates the number of forensic details.

First and foremost, it is the nature of the explosive device and method of its placement. A package of plastic explosives were mounted on a roadside pole – a typical bomb of times the two Chechen campaigns (this method in turn was borrowed from Palestine, and Afghanistan). Some sources attribute the increased activity of sabotage and reconnaissance groups at the Lugansk direction with the arrival to this sector of the front just Chechen volunteer battalion named Dzhokhar Dudayev” (aka “international peacekeeping”, he is “named after Musa Munayev”) as part of the APU. The battalion suffered heavy losses near Ilovaysk and debaltseve, but in an updated, podmechenno the composition is not only freaks like American photographer Sergey Melnikoff and converted to Islam, Japanese, a former freelance journalist Shamil Tsuneaki Tanaka, but militants of the old school, are quite capable to collect the bomb and stick it to a pole with duct tape.

Classic investigative actions boil down primarily to the type definition of explosives. At the epicenter of the explosion a vacuum is created, which is “reversed thrust” captures fine particles. Thus, contrary to popular belief, the bomb always something remains. Another thing is that to identify the place of manufacture of explosives may be difficult because of the Ukrainian chaos in the last 25 years. How and where was waste ammo during this time, extremely difficult to establish. Another clue: method of detonation. Most likely, the explosive device was radio-controlled and Demoman knew (saw?), the Carpenter’s car pulled up to a stoplight. The head of the LC lives in the city centre, and a morning trip to a remote area, on one half, consisting of traditional private housing, and the other – from the typical Soviet “beacon hill”, was not planned in advance. Therefore, the terrorists knew about the plans of the Carpenter, “were” his car from the house on Shevchenko street and had enough time to organize an ambush.

The Ukrainian side has long abandoned the idea of a breakthrough to the rear of the Lao PDR major sabotage and reconnaissance groups and uses singles who can contact each other using mobile phones or other gadgets. Despite heavy security, a paramilitary setting always flourishes the illegal trade of one and all, including the SIM card. In Lugansk there is already a traditional system like CCTV, but traditionally to scan the data of the cell towers is still very real. No one is saying that the assassination will be solved in the short term, but hope that some of the leads will result is.

Most likely, we are not dealing with an ordinary act of sabotage in the frontline, and with a well thought out terrorist attack designed to disrupt the management in the LC. Attempt at Carpentry fits into the so-called scheme of escalation – sequential build-up all forms of pressure (pure military, terrorist, humanitarian, and information) on DLNR and Russia. Gradual increase of tension and corresponding media entourage makes the transition to active hostilities less sharp. A new surge of hostilities will not happen “suddenly”, as it is natural, besides, against the background of General information hysteria and organizational chaos within DLNR.

In the same diagram are stacked and the events in the Crimea in the night of 7 to 8 August, when an attempt was made a breakthrough on the Russian territory of several DRGs. What they hoped for – not very clear, but the terrorist nature of this action is easily visible. In the message of FSB of the Russian Federation it is specified that the Ukrainian side planned to destabilize the situation ahead of the parliamentary elections, but it is very possible that creating chaos in the Crimea – part of the same “escalation schemes”. The attacks on the Peninsula would distract attention from the Donbass and created would be convenient for the APU background information.


Noteworthy that the Ukrainian subversive group worked fairly well and was openly supported by the equipment APU on the other side of the border. He resisted the first arrived along the Russian border guards after it had been spotted on the shore of the Sivash. And in connection with the arrival of the reinforcements were divided: part of the saboteurs left the water on Ukrainian territory, taking one wounded. At this point they are actively covered APC APU, which even entered the water of the Sivash from the Ukrainian side firing at the Russian territory.

New tactics

In some areas the deliberate aggravation of the situation already irreversible. The Ukrainian side in Minsk has refused to discuss the withdrawal of artillery and RZSO at key parts of the front (“Svetlodarsk arc”, the conurbation of Donetsk – Makiivka and Horlivka – Enakievo) and to make commitments on this score, and the area of Mariupol, and so entirely withdrawn from the negotiation process. The shelling of residential areas again become regular not only in Donetsk and in the Northern sector of the front, but under the Volnovaha.

A separate story – the events at Mariupol. The evening of August 5, Ukrainian artillery opened fire from several suburbs, as well as from Lebedinsky and Shyrokyne on human settlements DND, and so regularly fall under this kind of attacks (in particular, Kominternovo). In the morning, as is usually the case, the shelling has not stopped, but only intensified. He was joined by the old D-30 howitzers and mortars of Talakovka and Pavlopol, which has caused fire in response to the suppression by the BCH. Then the garrison Mariupol and the Azov battalion in particular newly arrived outside the box, namely – blocked traffic across the bridge, blocked the Central bushing metallurgical plant “Azovstal”, and the personnel scattered in spontaneous firing points, like “waiting for a VSN”. In parallel, some people began to organize shooting on a professional camera in various parts of the city. All this is strongly reminiscent of a provocation which could later issue a casus belli.

In the period from August 5 to 7 in the direction of Kherson from Odessa continuously moving columns of armored vehicles and “Grad”. It is estimated that the group Mat at Perekop for a few days prior trying to break through the border with Crimea, has increased almost by one third. At the same time, under the Mariupol base of APU made in the fishing area, i.e. West of the city, which remained largely “Azov” and the Marines. Mariupol has become a kind of human shield between the BCH and the APU in addition, this eliminates the danger of its environment, because the command of the BCH for another year as announced large settlements in the first place Mariupol, in the case of aggravation of the situation to attack will not, and blocks.

There is a classic pre-war provocations. Lacking only the radio tower in Gleiwitz to capture and say something out loud in Polish.

On the Northern sector of the front there is a constant increasing firepower. In Kramatorsk and Artemivsk, almost every day come new howitzers and “Grad”. APU is chronically short of tanks, whereby the spotlight is back on a combination of subversive methods and the systematic shelling by heavy artillery. In terms of propaganda it all is issued for the “new tactics”, supposedly similar to NATO, although the US army and a separate NATO countries there is nothing like it. On the contrary, there has long unaccustomed to infantry combat and disproportionate use of heavy artillery.

All this provided large-scale information campaign with numerous stuffing. And if Ukraine is a usual thing and everything usually comes down to increase in the number of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border and in Crimea, the Russian liberal media in the last two and a half weeks covered real hysteria. Published a huge “investigation” and “analytical reviews”, which should confirm the thesis of sharply increased power of the APU, the weakening of the BCH and, in principle, LDNR as the state and the system. Emphasized the strength of the Ukrainian army, achieved “extraordinary efforts of the whole society and the state”, its “high morale”, it “re-equipment with modern technology” and the like. The leadership of the DPR is presented in the form of “bandits”, in an endless drinking bout, and the commanders of the battalions iconic – as “psychopaths”. Published an anonymous and unsubstantiated interview of some “Vice-commander of the BCH”, telling about a critical condition of the equipment and personnel in comparison with the Ukrainian army. Replicated well-known stories about the internal political situation in the DNI and LC, with both the Republic actively opposed to each other (LC, headed by Carpenter as “better” than DNR Zakharchenko). Revelations of the past have long history around the battalion “Troy” and GRU retold as if everything is happening right now.

A game of “find the Russian army in the Donbass”, however, nobody won, but it is considered axiomatic that the VSN are held only at the expense of Russia. A new word in this game was the publication of anonymous bloggers, replicable “top officials” of Russia’s liberal opposition that calculates the pictures on social media of what the Russian part was involved in the conflict in the Donbass. Another fashionable category: the calculation of percentage of “local” in a particular battalion of the BCH.

Normal was the reference to data of the GRU of the Ministry of defense of Ukraine”, and his boss Vadim Skibitsky has become an authoritative source of information. The representatives of the relevant Russian media, but they are noisy) quiet seek accreditation in the SBU, which suddenly gives them a welcome, and provides support in the frontal zone, with the exception of the fortified area of Mariupol. All this Orgy has reached a new level, literally in the last days, when people in Donetsk again began to die on a daily basis.

The worst feeling

Border breakthrough at Perekop, attempt at Carpentry, shelling of border villages and former industrial zone under the plant, the rejection of the relocation or at least control for heavy artillery, information warfare – all this is happening almost simultaneously and in real time. There are no coincidences. While GRU, the Ministry of defense of Ukraine was actively spreading rumors that this is the BCH are going to go on the offensive in the period from 5 to 8 August.

But in practice, even with the huge advantage in manpower (more than 100 thousand soldiers of the APU against about 30-35 000 BCH) the chances of Kiev to the successful implementation of the strategic offensive small. No matter how stressed the promotion of “increased power” APU, the reality of the Ukrainian army is still very sad. Some tank companies often have 6-8 tanks, and spraying by mechanized brigades is not some sort of “new American tactics”, and the old desire to smear butter all over the loaf evenly. Given the meaningless build-up of forces at Perekop, the APU can put in the Donbass a maximum of 300 tanks of various degrees of readiness (a year ago the number of staff on the front line was 425 tanks). Hence, this institutional fascination with the famous mechanized brigades, in which one tank battalion and three mechanized infantry. That is, of all equipment – trucks and BRDM. Full 1st tank brigade sprayed in an arc from Marinka to Avdeevka without the practice of subordination. “Svetlodarsk arc against debaltseve uploaded inordinate amount of artillery, and the load on the 58th brigade, advanced into the advanced position, an excessively large for several months. The idea is to advance on debaltseve to the forehead in order to seize this city as the transport reference node explicitly leaves the brain of the Kiev General staff, despite the relatively recent defeat.

No one is going to abandon strategic breakthroughs using and Gorlovka, to cut off Donetsk from the other urban agglomerations of the region. And nothing good is not over.

So classic provocation of steel to be combined with a massive information war, and that is particularly unpleasant, already on the Russian news site. And this, unfortunately, is really a sure sign that the escalation of the situation may be irreversible.

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