Moscow and Ankara are friends again. Apparently, at a meeting in Moscow Vladimir Putin finally forgave Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shot down in November last year, the Russian su-24 bomber and resumed trade relations with his country. The resuscitation of the construction of the export pipeline “Turkish stream”. And our side has promised to lift the embargo on the purchase of Turkish fruit and vegetables. In addition, Russian tourists are once again able to relax on the relatively cheap beaches of Antalya, Kemer or Belek.
In 2014, Turkey was considered the fifth largest trade partner of Russia. Its share reached 5% of all Russian trade with the outside world. Turkey conceded on this indicator only China, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, but considerably exceeded that of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
Trade between Russia and Turkey in 2014 were $31 billion, for the first 9 months of 2015 — $18.1 billion, of which $15 billion is Russian exports to Turkey (Turkish import of goods amounted to just over $3 billion). Taking into account trade in services of the Russian-Turkish figures were higher: turnover of goods and services exceeded $44 billion.
A year and a half ago, when Erdogan visited Moscow, he promised Vladimir Putin that the trade turnover between Russia and Turkey by 2023 will increase to $100 billion (by the way, at this meeting, Erdogan promised the same $100 billion besides, 2023).
Until November 2015, it looked like something out of science fiction. Turkey has not joined Western sanctions against our country and has positioned itself as a promising economic partner.
But the Turkish air force shot down a Russian bomber destroyed the friendship of the two States.
First, it was halted construction of the pipeline “Turkish stream”, which is across the Black sea, would connect Russia new transport line with Europe. Ankara after the completion of this project would receive up to $3 billion a year as transit. These funds are now deposited at the Ukrainian intermediaries, and not always public.
Part of the pipe already laid, Russia as an alternative were going to build another pipeline — South stream through Bulgaria. Ankara, fearing that 3 billion, which can be obtained, especially not bothering, can swim away from under his nose, the beginning of any ways to establish a friendship with Moscow. Sofia has said that working groups will be established for the elaboration of this project, but in the future.
The pipeline is only one aspect of Russian — Turkish relations. According to the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev, until the end of 2016 may be lifted an embargo on the supply to Russia of Turkish products.
However, experts say, to return to the Russian market to the Turks is quite simple. Some African and Latin American countries already occupy the released niche of our market and give it not going.
According to the representative of one of the large national retail chains, to fully restore the volume of supply of Turkey will not work — up to a quarter of the market they are permanently lost. To restore major grocery deliveries Ankara will be able not earlier than six months. And it will be no more than 70-75% of the pre-crisis level.
There is also the tourist factor. In 2014, Turkey was visited by more of 4.38 million citizens of Russia. Almost a year our tourists on the beaches of Antalya or Kemer did not fly. After the lifting of restrictions in this area it is possible to recover tourist arrivals to 2.3 million, but only in 2017.
So who will lose and who will benefit from the restoration of cooperation between the two countries? According to the Deputy Director of analytical Department of “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova, will benefit both sides. “But a win against Russia and Turkey will be at different times and at different scales. In the short and medium aspect Turkey got what you wanted. Will resume Charter flights from Russia will recover the trade turnover between the two countries. For Turkish business, including construction, will be lifted restrictions on the activities in Russia. Sanctions are lifted on food imports from Turkey.
The Russian win in the short term is a victory of the population, which used to vacation in Turkey. It’s a win buyers the Turkish vegetables and fruits,” — said the expert. It is hoped that even in the winter and spring fruits and vegetables are not expensive, and perhaps even several cheaper — Turkish suppliers will need to sell the accumulated goods that will be shipped a new one.
The profits of the state from the construction of nuclear power plants in Akkuyu and from the gas pipeline “Turkish stream” will be extended in time. But he will be received in 2019-2023 and will be just in time. Russia needs additional revenues to the budget and support the share in the European gas market and due to the “Turkish stream” will we get them?
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