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Friday, October 28, 2016

Freeze is cancelled: Moscow cut off Kiev from Europe “Turkish stream”

Won Moscow and the fact that he forgave Ankara shot down in November last year a Russian bomber, or, on the contrary, this is a tricky Turks were able to regain positions lost in the market of our country? Who in the end prevailed: Russia or Turkey? As told “MK” the Deputy Director of analytical Department of Alpari Natalia Milchakova, “tops and roots” is considered too early, time will tell who will reap the benefits and who will be left with nothing. At first glance, Russia will have a new benefits. It is not only cheaper products or tour packages for the Russians, who are used to it, but the opportunity to build a gas pipeline “Turkish stream” that can increase the supply of our gas to Europe and to withdraw from dependence on the transit of “blue fuel” through Ukraine.

photo: kremlin.ru

– A new Russian-Turkish cooperation: who will lose and who will benefit from this? Who will benefit from the possible permissions import products in Russia?

– Cooperation will benefit both sides. Win though, because cooperation in contrast to confrontation, usually brings more benefits or to reduce costs of various processes. However, a win against Russia and Turkey will be at different times and at different scales.

In the short and even medium-term aspect, Turkey has already received everything he wanted. First, will resume Charter flights from Russia, primarily in the popular among Russian tourists resorts of the Anatolian coast, and probably in the next two years tourist flow from Russia to Turkey will be restored to pre-crisis levels (4.4 million tourists in 2014, when the tourist flow of the Russians to Turkey reached its peak. Second, to restore trade between the countries, and this means that for Turkish business, including construction, will be lifted restrictions on the activities in Russia, and, most importantly, to the end of the year, according to the Ministry of economic development, will be lifted sanctions on food imports from Turkey.

The Russian win in the short term is a win for consumers, who used to vacation in Turkey. And there are people in Russia millions. It’s a win buyers Turkish foods, especially vegetables and fruits. And that too millions of people. However, the strategic prize of the state from the construction of nuclear power plants in Akkuyu and from the gas pipeline “Turkish stream” will be largely extended in time. Turkey is also the beneficiary of the “Turkish stream”, but it is already receiving Russian gas and is not experiencing a big shortage of electricity. So Turkey has to wait for the implementation of these projects is much longer than Russia. And Russia needs additional revenues to the budget and support its share in the European gas market (current share is 32%).

– What products can get into the white list, first of all (which does not grow in Russia?)?

– Be sure to get all kinds of tropical fruits, which do not grow in Russia, or, if you grow it in limited quantities and at certain times of year (e.g., peaches), you get seasonal vegetables and fruits. From January to may Russia makes up for the temporary shortage of seasonal fruits and vegetables almost entirely by imports. I believe that the vegetables in the first place will remove the embargo on tomatoes, eggplant, zucchini, cabbage, potatoes, carrots, etc.

As Turkish products can affect the food market of Russia in the winter? Whether the prices will fall?

– Significant reduction in prices in the winter no need to wait, but, nevertheless, an extra 0.1-0.2 percentage point to import cheap Turkish vegetables, appear to reduce can.

– “Turkish stream”: will it be implemented that gives the project of Russia? Who benefits most from the implementation of the “Turkish stream” and why?

The project “Turkish stream” gives Russia the opportunity, first, a complete halt to gas transit through Ukraine and Belarus.

Second, the possibility of deliveries to Europe additional 16-32 billion cubic meters of gas, which will go to southern Europe. And there, Russia has a strong enough competitor in the form of Algeria, which has a gas pipeline to Italy, and also LNG, which is imported to Europe from Qatar by sea.

Thus, Russia could strongly oust competitors, especially when there is Turkey convenient gas “hub” that distributes the gas to different countries of southern Europe. To Russia “Turkish stream” is an additional export opportunities and additional revenues to the budget. Of course, the strengthening of Russian positions in Eurasia and the middle East at the same time, as well as the possibility once again “to cover” competing “TRANS Adriatic pipeline”, which has not yet started to build. But, most likely, never be built, because Europe “Turkish stream” will also be beneficial. Especially since the majority of future participants of the project from Europe are not EU members (Serbia, Macedonia) and also not too loyal to the EU Hungary.

Relations between Russia and Turkey. Chronicle of events

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