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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Ukraine will try to end the conflict in the Donbas with the help of China

Kiev proposed to hold a meeting “Norman group” on the sidelines of the G20 summit in the Chinese province of Zhejiang, and Russia supports the initiative, said foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Now we need to wait for the permission of France and Germany, and China, which will host important guests. Meanwhile, this meeting was to be held in early July, but then the President of Russia Vladimir Putin refused to participate in it, so I saw no progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

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Since then, the situation in the Donbas only became worse, now Moscow is concerned that Kiev began to fire at the self-proclaimed DND and LNR, stressed Lavrov. Summary of hostilities in August 8-9 confirms these fears.

According to militia, the Ukrainian security forces shelled the Western outskirts of Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Staromykhailivka, Oleksandrivka, trudivs’ke, Panteleymonovka, Zaitseva, Cool Beam, Vasilevka, Shanku, Lenin, Kominternove and Stakhanov. The enemy used heavy artillery caliber from 82 to 152 mm, which fired at least 120 rounds. As a result, Ukrainian aggression 1 militiaman was killed and 2 of his co-worker was injured, injured 1 civilian.

At the headquarters of ATO claim that the militia fired on the Ukrainian positions 47 times. During attacks 1 Ukrainian soldier was killed and 5 were injured. However, the representative of the Ministry of defence DND Eduard Bacurin believes that the Ukrainians are shelling themselves, because they can not properly aim at the militia positions.

The parties to the conflict commits a breach of the truce and transmit them to the observation mission of the OSCE, but its members can’t stop people from shooting each other. Moreover, the recent increase in cases where members of the international observation mission are not allowed to inspect certain sites.

Add to this the almost stalled talks on holding local elections in the DNI and LC, the ongoing economic blockade and scandalous statements by Ukrainian leaders on the introduction of “martial law”, and it turns out that about the Minsk agreement for a long time nobody remembers.

Can the “Norman four” to revive the negotiation process, “MK” has found out from the experts:

Denis DENISOV, the head of the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute:

– The situation on the contact line has changed significantly, and currently the “channel group” is one of the few mechanisms that can affect the intensity of the fighting in the Donbass. Therefore, a key theme of the meeting in China will be the demilitarization of the region. Because Poroshenko is unable to influence Parliament and government, which are in the hands of the “party of war” in Moscow will be to convince Paris and Berlin to convey to the rest of Ukrainian politicians, the idea of the inadmissibility of the continuation of hostilities.. it is Unlikely we will hear any more statements about the military mission of OSCE or introduction of peacekeepers in the Donbass. Previously, these suggestions no one but Kiev is not supported. But it is possible to conclude the framework agreement on the withdrawal of weapons and the cessation of hostilities.

Now Ukraine’s ruling elite are only concerned to wait for the election of the President of the United States, and then come what may. Until then, they’re not going to make any decisions on the Donbass, so hope for progress on other points of the Minsk agreements is not necessary. For example, in August marks a year since the beginning of constitutional reform in Ukraine, but in fact she did not budge.

Vadim KARASEV, the head of the Ukrainian Institute of global strategies:

– On the one hand it is hoped that if the meeting at the level of heads of States still take place, some progress on implementation of the Minsk agreements will be reached. On the other, the meeting should take place at the G20 summit and the negotiations on the Donbass will be an afterthought. This may mean that the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia will meet not to sign any new agreements, and to discuss their possibility. At the same time, Kiev has, without sacrificing his interests, to give impetus to the Minsk process, because they understand that time is not on Ukraine: anti-Russian sanctions could be lifted as soon as early 2017, and then Kiev will remain alone with Russia. So by the end of this year, the Ukrainian government needs to achieve the most favorable conditions for themselves, to then as soon as possible to complete the confrontation.

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