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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Putin and Erdogan share a commitment to independence

The meeting, which will take place on Tuesday in St. Petersburg, is fundamentally different from many other talks at the highest level. Handshake between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan should thaw in Russian-Turkish relations and their personal relationships. Whether it is possible in principle after the incident on 24 November and what will be now the relationship between the two presidents?

In 17 years at the helm, Putin had many important meetings at the highest level. Were those the outcome of which depended very much – however, to allocate the most difficult because of the banal secrecy about what was discussed at the negotiations. But the meeting on 9 August, which attracted everyone’s attention, really unique – never before has Putin never met with a man, which was almost severed relations.

“Erdogan is not a friend and not an enemy of Russia – he is an independent Director of Turkey who are not afraid to make decisions and supported by their people”

After Turkey on November 24 last year killed a Russian su-24, Putin not only refused any contacts with Erdogan, but put it on pause the whole complex of Russian-Turkish relations. And at the same time Erdogan has put forward an ultimatum, demanding to fulfil the three conditions (apology, compensation and punishment of those responsible for the death of the pilot) to restore relations between the two countries.

Yes, Putin did not personally insulted Erdogan is generally not his style, even to the former “partners” who themselves cross the line – but the overall intensity of the accusations of Moscow to the Turkish leader was unprecedented. It was clear that it is only the element of psychological pressure that Putin does not burn bridges, but rather pushes Erdogan to as quickly as possible to remedy the situation. But some of our “talking heads” thought that all is over – and frankly I played in the pseudo-Patriotic games, competing in the attacks on Erdogan. Considering that relations between Putin and Erdogan will never recover, they decided that the Turkish President is to hone their “loyalty” to Putin.

But Putin was forced Erdogan to correct errors (Yes, the murder of the pilot is a crime and a challenge, but in political terms that made Turkey on November 24, it was a mistake, even if the rate of destruction of the Russian aircraft on the basis of purely Turkish interests), and this tactic proved to be successful. In late June, Erdogan apologized and started to prepare for the August meeting where the two presidents were supposed to close the black Chapter in the history of relations between the two countries.

But on the way to it occurred another event – military coup attempt in Turkey, during which Erdogan is not just survived, but also strengthened their positions. Putin called Erdogan and denounced the coup – said the Turkish President, did it quickly, almost immediately.” In contrast with the behavior of Western leaders, this gesture was even more noticeable – especially as Erdogan was to blame outside forces for support and almost the initiation of the conspiracy.

And now they will meet face to face since their last talks in mid-November in Antalya it took nine months, which missed the break, and the beginning of reconciliation. Is there any possibility to glue something that seemed broken?

Of course, there are – even in a personal sense. The fact that Erdogan is not a friend and not an enemy of Russia – he is an independent Director of Turkey who are not afraid to make decisions and enjoys the support of his people. And that’s what makes it important and interesting partner for Putin’s partner in a normal, not ironic sense of the word.

After all, most of the leaders of foreign States, with whom it has Putin no match for him – not intellectual or volitional qualities and roles and functions. It hired elite managers – someone with more authority, someone with less. None of the Western leaders are not able to make a decision on really important issues. Moreover, almost none of them thinks in terms of decades, not thinking about the lessons of the past and has no vision of the future for their country.

There are, of course, XI Jinping and the head of Khamenei, there are real leaders in small countries, which, however, little depends on the global stage – but in General a joke Putin that after the death of Gandhi, no one to talk to, not so far from the truth. In the international arena deficit responsible visionary leaders – those who would Express the will of the people, deeply understood the essence of what is happening in the world and was not afraid to make decisions and be accountable for words and deeds.

But Erdogan, like him or treat is among the few independent leaders and that, given the large weight of Turkey in the world, and especially in such a key region as the greater middle East, makes him an extremely important figure. The figure with which you can talk seriously – because he cares about really serious and important for his country, and he can make decisions.

It’s funny, when worried about the fact that Turku is not to be trusted”, “Erdogan is a traitor and will betray again.” In the relationship between real statesmen, leaders who are worried about defending the interests of their countries, there can be neither full trust nor friendship. It is already a superhuman relationship – despite the importance of personal chemistry. You can, of course, to promote the thesis that “Turkey is a historical enemy of Russia and now we are fighting with it in Syria, but that would be a desecration of the history and current state of Affairs.

Turkey – historical neighbor Russia, and many Turkish people are the younger brothers of the Russian people in our country or are in the orbit of Russian civilization in the so-called post-Soviet space. Russian-Turkish relations are extremely important for both civilizations, even more so when they both how to get rid from imposed inferiority complex towards the West, and resist the pressure of the globalist forces.

Putin and Erdogan are completely different, but equally targeting people. Both want to establish their own States-civilization the most favorable conditions for development, and the development of national, independent. In terms of increased global instability, these conditions should be simultaneously as external and internal. The intersection of interests of Russia and Turkey in Syria has led to 24 November – 12-year-old and, apparently, checked the attitude of Erdogan and Putin could not stand the test of war.

Putin was outraged by the “stab in the back”, Erdogan believed that, starting operation in Syria, Russia too little heed to Turkish interests, though the last time they met just a week before November 24, Erdogan decided to draw the attention of the Kremlin’s destruction of the aircraft.

Raised whether he thus the importance of Turkey in the eyes of Russia, has improved the position of Turkey in the Syrian conflict? On the contrary – he deprived his country and the really important strategic partner. Given the course Erdogan on independence (both foreign and domestic), it’s more than strained relations with the Atlantic elites, and the Russian presence in Syria, loss of contacts with Putin and the suspension of all – as a geopolitical and economic ties with Russia became for the Turkish President is critical.

Is the current reconciliation with Erdogan reliable and long-term? It is also strange question – if Erdogan wants to keep Erdogan and to move in the same direction as the previous 13 years in power, he has no alternative to the strengthening of Turkish-Russian relations. Not because he likes Putin or Russia, but because Turkey needs a real independence and stability, and as a state in which the rule is not alien to the people westernized elite, and the people who profess the same faith as the rest of the people. This is the way Erdogan – and this is the main bet Putin to work with him. Because Putin himself is going down this road of independence, geopolitical and civilizational.

And so Syria, Putin and Erdogan sooner or later will agree – in the same way as that of “Turkish stream”. Even Assad, demanding the resignation of Erdogan which may not be waived, can be found understanding with words demanding his departure, Ankara will be forced to accept the fact that he remains. Because of Erdogan as the Turkish patriot is more concerned about the Kurds, and, most importantly for Moscow and Damascus is to make the Turks less worried about the “Kurdish threat”. Of course, Erdogan will now continue with the EU and with the USA (especially on the Kurdish issue) – he works for his country and its national interests. But in his relations with Putin had an important experience that shows that Russia is better to speak plainly, without trying to play on the contradictions between it and the West.

Erdogan now will not lead his country out of NATO in the SCO, but the vector of his reign will reduce the influence of the Atlanticist Turkey, to bring together it with Russia, China and Iran. This meets the national interests of Russia – and that is why Putin accepts the apology from the person who now constantly calls him “my dear friend Vladimir.”

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