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Thursday, July 20, 2017

Georgia without Russia is doomed

Seven years ago the war began in South Ossetia. Georgia, who considered this self-proclaimed Republic in its territory, attacked Tskhinvali, after which Russia, whose peacekeepers have been killed, sent troops and crushed the Georgian army. After the war, Georgia severed ties with Russia – but sooner or later it will return to the Russian world. She is simply no alternative.

The attack on South Ossetia in Tbilisi called “operation to restore in the Tskhinvali region the constitutional order.” Indeed, Georgia has never recognized the breakaway from her after the Soviet collapse, Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent States, considering them hard temporarily lost territories.

“The idea of the need to return to the Union with Russia, alas, still have not mastered the Georgian society”

And this despite the fact that both countries have separated from her during the bloody conflicts of the war, which Georgia lost. All 16 years of separate existence both not recognized by anyone in the Republic were under the protection of Russia where were our peacekeepers, the majority of citizens got Russian passports. The fact that Moscow did not recognize the independence of these republics and have not responded to their request for joining Russia, was due to a reluctance to spoil relations with Georgia. But in fact, everyone understood that Georgia lost these territories.

Well, not like the Abkhazians and Ossetians to live in one with the Georgians state – once during the collapse of the Soviet Union they tried to deprive them of their Autonomous status and staged military operations to suppress the separatists. They were under the wing of Russia – and it was a natural desire on both sides.

The reconciliation with the Georgians probably had only a gradual, over time – and, most importantly, in the framework of the Russian world to which he belonged that Abkhazians and Ossetians, the Georgians. But after the “rose revolution” and the coming to power of Saakashvili in 2003, Georgia began active drift toward the United States. By the end of 2007 was the withdrawal of all Russian military bases and Saakashvili decided to try to “restore territorial integrity”.

It was pure madness. Only an autist could think that Russia will allow Georgia to seize South Ossetia, many of whose citizens had Russian passports (to Abkhazia from Tbilisi forces simply did not exist). But Saakashvili were such a madman and no matter how much his actions had the desire to please the Americans (after all, it might seem that he performs an important geopolitical mission for Washington). The attack on Tskhinvali, which led to the deaths of Russian peacekeepers, provoked Russia’s response began “operation to enforce peace”. During the five-day war, the Georgian army, which before few years, was taught by American instructors, were defeated. Before 58th army was the way to Tbilisi.

But Russia did not take the Georgian capital and overthrow Saakashvili – which no doubt would have done in a similar case, the United States, Britain or France. Our troops gone and South Ossetia and Abkhazia was officially recognized by Russia. In fact, two of these States become associated with the Russian territories in the geopolitical sense, they are part of the Russian Federation. For Georgia, it became a double blow. Not only that, the Russian tanks swept through Gori, so once she finally took the territory that she believed her. But the overall awareness of the impasse in Georgia did not happen. In other words, understanding that the path to life outside of the Russian world leads to disaster, not come.

It’s disappointment in Saakashvili and several years later he lost power. But the thought of having to return to the Union with Russia, to stop playing games with anti-Russian geopolitical enemies of our country, alas, still have not mastered the Georgian society. Our return Abkhazia and Ossetia, then we’ll talk – insist in Tbilisi. The futility of such expectations is obvious – Tbilisi lost these areas are not in 2008, in 1991-1992, when he took a course on the suppression of autonomy and secession from the USSR. After the 2008 war, Georgia broke off diplomatic relations even with Russia – but it is impossible to break centuries-old ties between the two peoples and countries.

Georgia in the 18th century, she wanted to be a part of the Russian world – and largely because of her choice Russia began to move into the Caucasus, fighting with the Ottomans and the Persians. And the war with the mountaineers of the North Caucasus last but not least was associated with the protection of Russia the Georgians (those were subject to constant raids of the highlanders). Georgia became part of the Russian world, but he thought of the Transcaucasia with the relevant ambitions.

In the framework of the USSR all this was balanced by Moscow. But with the disintegration of the Union, in which the Georgians belong to one of the main roles, the whole model of “mini-Empire” collapsed. Two of the three autonomies gone (only the Adjara), Georgians after unsuccessful attempts to force to crush the regions were forced to flee from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The loss of territories were accused Russia – but not to themselves, have decided to live to abandon belonging to the Russian world.

Living under the geopolitical protectorate of the United States failed to make Georgia its Outpost in the Caucasus, the Americans were in no hurry, preferring to use it as anti-Russian leverage. After the 2008 war, and care was Saakashvili, Georgia was in limbo – where to go?

The West itself will not take the maximum in NATO but not the EU – the economy is in hopeless deadlock, with Russia in the fight. To become a colony of Turkey, which and so bought everything I could in Georgia? But Turkish and even Ottoman world alien to the Georgians, from him they fled under the wing of coreligionist Russia.

After the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the interest in Georgia from the Anglo-Saxons grew it was decided to build a barrier around the shaft, from the Baltic to the Black sea. But in the South it is an important element should be to Georgia. It is clear that from a military point of view, it is a senseless idea – even if Georgia will be in NATO, it gained at least some real military value it will be necessary to place a us military base and a permanent military contingent. But even in this case the Georgian territory will be a trap – so great is the superiority surrounding her on all sides of the Russian bases in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Armenia.

That is of military importance for the States Georgia has not – and, therefore, to rely on serious financial aid and geopolitical aid is useless. And that it is more important – has no chance of becoming part of the West, even by conversion to a transportation corridor or a military base. What remains? Only Russia – which, despite everything, is not experiencing the Georgians and Georgia no bad feelings.

Georgia depends on Russia much more than willing now to recognize the Georgian authorities. That and living in Russia about half a million citizens of Georgia, whose financial assistance is a significant source of livelihood of the population of the Republic, and an even greater number of Georgians, who moved after the collapse of the Soviet Union in Russia and received Russian passports, many of which also transfer money home. This is a huge cultural and human ties generated by the two centuries of the intertwining of Georgian life with a Russian. This shared history – including Soviet – and common geopolitical interests.

But if Russia and not Georgia can develop and take its place in the world, Georgia without Russia is doomed. To extinction through loss of self – identity through reference to a strong, but strange neighbor (Turkey), through constant memory of the past “glory days”. If Georgians want to return to live in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, they can not understand that the only way to that is through their return to the Russian world. From where they tried to exclude themselves – with tragic result. But everything can be improved – while alive the memory of a shared journey.

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