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Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Angel and demons: who will replace Merkel as Chancellor of Germany

Less of German citizens approve of the activities of Angela Merkel on a post of the Federal Chancellor. A new acceleration of this trend has given a recent series of bloody crimes committed by migrants. Migration policy of the government unhappy today, two-thirds of the Germans. More noticeable a ferment in the political elite of the country. Instead of a rhetorical question “who, if not Merkel, which dened the political agenda in the last decade, increasingly sounds pragmatic: “Who, after Merkel?”

photo: ru.wikipedia.org

Guest in the throat

“I am a soldier of the Islamic state and start a Holy war in Germany, — coins into the camera, apparently, mobile phone swarthy young man, gesticulating hand gripping the knife. — Gone are the days when you came to our lands, killed our women and children, and nobody asked you any questions. If it be the will of Allah, you will be attacked on every street, in every village, in every city, in every airport… If it is the will of Allah, I will slaughter you in your own home”. The young man wasn’t kidding: the video was circulated by his supporters a day after “martyrs”, armed with an axe and a knife, attacked with a cry of “Allahu Akbar!” at the passenger train, who came to the Bavarian town of Würzburg.

The results of the massacre: five injured, four seriously, as two is estimated as critical. The assailant tried to flee, but was caught by the police and killed during the arrest. Soon the identity of the offender was established: it was the 17-year-old refugee from Afghanistan Riaz Khan Ahmadzai, who arrived in Germany in June last year. More precisely — a man known to the authorities under this name. Because no documents have uninvited guest in the moment of crossing the border was not the accuracy of the provided information causes the investigator in serious doubt. It seems that he was somewhat older than the stated age, resided in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, and called a completely different way.

Before going to “work”, a terrorist known to the authorities as an Afghan refugee, Riaz Khan Ahmadzai, has recorded a video message in which he declared that starts with “Holy war.”

Of course, by the standards of the mentors newly “Shahid”, accustomed to a more generous human sacrifice, the terrorist attack on 18 July in the Bavarian commuter train, was not quite successful. But, on the other hand, it is important not only victims, but also the resonance, and it was fine. The Germans are absolutely right sent them a message: “Now we go to you”.

And continuing the horror was not long in coming. July 22: the massacre in Munich — 9 people were killed and four wounded. 24 July: massacre at Reutlingen (one dead), an explosion in Ansbach (15 wounded)… the Press of frightened German dubbed these days “a week of terror.”

Strictly speaking, the conscience of the Islamists — only two crimes out of the four. Munich the shooter belonged to a different, though no less mad camp: according to eyewitnesses, Ali Sonboli, 18-year-old German citizen of Iranian origin, considered themselves “Aryan” and did not conceal his admiration for Hitler and Andreas Breivik. It is unlikely, by the way, can be considered accidental, that the slaughter was arranged them in the five-year anniversary of the terrorist attacks “the Norwegian butcher.” Cannot be attributed to classical “Jihad” and PE in Reutlingen: 21-year-old killer, seeker of refugee status from Syria, had no claim to the whole Western world, and only one particular representative, the 45-year-old large Polish woman who rejected his sexual harassment and paplateles for it with his life…

However, despite different motivations, the connection between the crimes is obvious: the attackers were refugees from the countries of the Muslim East. As a rule, in the first generation or, as in the case of the Munich marksman, high in the second. In other words, they’re part of a huge migratory flow, to which the Chancellor of Germany, opened in September last year against the German border crossing and about which said confidently at the same time: “We’ll get through this”.

For reference: last year in Germany came 1 million 100 thousand refugees — a record indicator for all time of existence of a United Germany. Another 220 thousand were added to them in the first half of 2016.

Out of trust

The same phrase — “We’ll deal with it” — Angela Merkel repeats today, commenting on the events of the “week of horror”. But the confidence in her voice is much less. Still, according to a new poll commissioned by the ARD sociological service Infratest dimap, Merkel’s confidence fell last month by 12 percentage points. The activities of the Chancellor is pleased with today, only 47 percent of respondents. A month ago, the figure was 59 percent and the last year before the acute phase of the migration crisis — 75!

At the time Merkel was the most popular politician in the country, today she is only in sixth place. On the ground, with 71 percent of support — Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier. But, perhaps, with no less concern, Frau Merkel looks back: on the heels of her comes Horst Seehofer, Prime Minister of Bavaria and leader of the “fraternal” parties — the Christian social Union. Today it is the most award-winning and politically heavy-weight opponent of the Chancellor in the debate on the migration issue. And judging by the explosive growth in the popularity of the Bavarian — per month Seehofer shares surged as much as 11 points, to 44 per cent, his arguments convince the electorate more than marchelewski encouraging mantra. The closer the elections to the Bundestag — the next will be held in the fall of 2017 — and increasing the muscles Seehofer electoral dispute is gradually moving from the theoretical stage to the stage of acute political conflict that threatens to split the ruling team.

Explain that the modern political system of Germany is somewhat reminiscent of a Russian matryoshka. The government formed so-called Grand coalition, which includes the two leading political forces: the Social democratic party of Germany — the leader of a rating of popularity of politicians, the German foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is just the social-democratic part of the government and the bloc “Union of Christians”. In turn, the latter consists of the Merkel-led Christian democratic Union and Christian seecoverage-social.

Traditionally since 1949, the two Christian parties are at the Federal level, the elections to the Bundestag, as a single political force and, consequently, form in the Parliament one fraction. They have a common “Komsomol” pesto party change, and Youth Union. At the regional level, the scope of activities of the allies are divided as follows: the CSU does not hold candidates anywhere except in Bavaria, where he regularly wins; in turn, the CDU does not pop in the “Alpine fortress” CSU. Until recently, all were happy with this division of roles, but with the beginning of the migration crisis in the once friendly house “Union of Christians” all mixed up.

New logs on the fire of discord planted the recent remarks Seehofer. Bavarian once again strongly criticized the immigration policy of Merkel, saying that at all desire can not share the confidence of the Chancellor that “we will cope with it.” He has a diametrically opposite view: walking along the path, who a year ago chose the Prime Minister and with whom she does not wish to curtail, “we’re not gonna win this”. But the main sensation in another: speaking about the upcoming elections, the Bavarian said that he was “not sure” that the CSU and CDU “is a common election program and a common candidate for the post of Chancellor and candidate”.

A hint to the fact transparent that can be certified as mocking. Because in addition to Merkel’s other potential candidates for the post of Chancellor or among the “Union of Christians”, or in German political elite as a whole is not.

She is not tired, she’s not leaving

Frau Bundeskanzlerin herself — “Mrs. the Federal kanclera” (in the German language title of this post was not only male but also female) is also so far refused to comment on his political future. “Regarding the candidacy for the post of Chancellor, I can only say what I have said many times, namely: I’ll tell you about it in any moment” — said Merkel at a recent press conference. However, the question if she felt the fatigue, which in turn clearly expressed interest in the plans of the Chancellor in the autumn of 2017, Merkel said more definitely, and far more optimistic: “I wouldn’t talk about fatigue. Let’s just say I just don’t feel underutilized”.

The majority of German political experts see no reason to believe that Merkel will refuse the fourth walking to the Olympus of power. For the first time since she headed the government in 2005, then was re-elected in 2009 and 2013 (elections for the Bundestag are held in the usual manner once in four years). According to political scientist Nils Diderich from the Free University of Berlin, candidate of the CDU as Chancellor likely will once again be Merkel. Moreover, according to his forecast, the Bavarians will not be too much to resist and support the candidate of the Christian Democrats. “Merkel should not worry about this, as CSU ultimately has no other choice,” — said the expert. Autonomous navigation of the Bavarians is doomed to failure.

As for permanent seehofers attacks on marchelewski migration rate, according to the analyst, strategy Bavarian “absolutely rational”. Moreover, we cannot exclude that it is sanctioned by the Merkel. Diederich sees this “division of labor”. First, because electoral activity, the CSU is confined to Bavaria, carping Seehofer without prejudice to the positions of the CDU in the rest of the country. Second, this rhetoric is a good magnet to the “Union of Christians” those who see Seehofer soul mate. Well, or at least not repulsive, that at the present time is also not bad.

That is the ruling party bloc is a good supermarket that meets the needs of all potential users. And those who want harder, toconservative, “poseidotica”: to restore effective border controls, to introduce a limit on the influx of migrants without further ADO to expel those who do not meet the criteria of a refugee and/or violates the law. And those who are in the first place puts the human values and, accordingly, prefers a softer, marchelewski approach.

The real truth in this logic probably is. Well, with unwavering fans of Mutti — Mommy, as for the eyes name is Merkel in the German political and parapolitical circles, and so everything is clear: it is hardly necessary to fear that they will flop under a foreign flag. As for the growing number of disgruntled, then they have little choice. Others represented in the German Parliament of the party, although scold Mommy for punctures and omissions in the work, a clear alternatives its migration rate is not offered. And some, such as “Left”, and does believe that the authorities lack the tolerance and responsiveness in this matter, that the German state is not fulfilling its obligations towards the refugees”.

To reset the Mummy from the train

About the mood, typical of this part of the political spectrum, evidenced by an incident that occurred in the beginning of the year with the press Secretary of the youth organization of the party “the Left” 24-year-old Celine Guerin. Celine was repeatedly brutally raped and robbed near his home by three young men of middle Eastern origin. The girl went to the police, but your statement was, to put it mildly, is not quite sincere. She reported only the theft of a handbag, and not foreigners, “men who talked among themselves in German.” Celine later explained his motives: according to her, she didn’t want to experience it contributed to turning public opinion against migrants. The next day she under the influence of loved ones still gave truthful testimony, from which, however, was of little use.

Amid this hypertrophied political correctness, amounting at times to outright madness, “Union of Christians” seem to be the height of sanity. More precisely — it seemed. The steady drop in ratings of allies (for they were ready to vote 43% of voters now — 34) suggests that those who disagree with marchelewski migration rate still found a alternative. And, of course, is not among the parliamentary parties, whose ratings have not changed. The main and virtually the sole beneficiary of the change trend was the alternative in every sense of the word — created in 2013, the party “Alternative for Germany”.

On the eve of the migration crisis support 3-4% of voters. Now — 12. And in some regions — and even more. For example, in the elections to the Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt, held in March of this year, “ADG” received 24.3 percent of the vote, forming the second largest after the Christian Democrats faction. By the way, the next land elections in Germany will take place in September this year in the electoral fiefdom of the Chancellor — Mecklenburg — Vorpommern. Here is an electoral district of the island of rügen-Greifswald), which since 1990 is a candidate Angela Merkel. So, according to the latest survey in the region opinion polls, “alternatives” behind the Christian Democrats by only 5 percent (20 vs 25) and for the remaining period have a chance before the election to reduce the gap. And even to overtake.

Alternative” is not afraid to be politically incorrect, what actually appeals to voters. “Day by day through open borders we have continued to arrive, people already because of the nature of the culture in which they are brought up, inevitably bring to our society is huge potential for conflict, — said in a recent statement by the leadership of “ADG” on “the security situation in Germany”. We cannot exclude that in this migration flow are the terrorists. If the government decline to take a clear position on this issue, it becomes automatically involved in the crimes, which, unfortunately, can be done in the future.”

Merkel presented the plan of the 9 points,” aimed at solving the immigration crisis and the resulting security issues, the party called “old wine in new bottles” and a Testament to the incompetence of the Chancellor. “Even now, when, after the brutal attacks, everyone should be clear that open borders put us at the highest terrorist threat, Merkel continues to stick to the old failure rate, — said the Deputy Chairman of the Board “ADG” Alexander Gauland. If Frau Merkel really think that this crisis can be overcome by stubborn patience, she betrays our society. It is time to prepare the action plan against Merkel in order to save our country.” The ultimate goal of the plan is clear: “alternatives” offered to throw Mama from the train a large policy.

No room for error

By the way, the option of replacing the proposed “ADG”, looks quite good: in July of last year, “Alternative” headed by 40-year-old and quite pretty Frauke Petry. Which, by the way, a lot in common with Merkel. In the same way as angel, Frauke — “Ossi”, “Vostochnii”, a former citizen of the GDR. In the same way as Merkel is behind a science education and a doctorate Frauke — chemist, Angela — physicist). In the same way as the Chancellor, began his career as a scientist. In politics, too, both left about the same age. In General, from the point of view of biographical data, neither give nor take — the alter-ego, “Merkel 2.0”. As for ambitions — apparently, too. However, the likelihood that dreams Petri and driven it, “ADH” will come true in autumn 2017, to put it mildly, small.

photo: ru.wikipedia.org
Frauke Petry, the leader of the party “Alternative for Germany” may compete with the current head of the Cabinet. But not next year.

Of course, from the party that in the three years since its establishment, it has managed to spin up to fourth place in the list of the most important political organizations in the country, we can expect any surprises. But, no matter how events developed, it is unlikely for the remainder of the year a rating of “ADG” time to grow to the 50%-mark. As with any other result of “Alternative” will continue to remain in opposition, as allies, with whom it would be possible to create a coalition, part of the systemic political field it yet. Either actual or potential. “Alternatives” are here today, “right-wing populists and Islamophobic”, and recently to these labels has been added and reputation of “friends of Putin”. The old-timers of the German political scene today shy away from the “ADH” as the devil from incense.

In short, if Frau Merkel and the danger on this side, in the slightly longer term than the fall of 2017. As with the other opposition forces. Despite their losses, the CDU remains the most popular party in the country, and its partner in government, the SPD is the second most popular. If elections were held tomorrow, the current “Grand coalition” would be scored in total, 56 percent of the vote and, accordingly, again was able to form a Cabinet. In short, life in the old dog yet fully dried up.

Much greater concern Merkel should call the situation in their own camp. With the development of the migration crisis and, accordingly, falling of rating of the CDU fewer party members Frau Kanzlerin share formula “talking “party” — mean Merkel.” Increasingly there are statements the meaning of which is to ensure that “an irreplaceable we have,” and that the Mother, if necessary, can also be substituted. And rightly so.

Today at once two representatives of the CDU ahead of Merkel in the German ranking of trust: Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble — he 60 percent is in the second position, while Merkel, recall that only on the sixth, and the Minister of the interior Thomas de maizière (fourth place). And just one percentage point behind her defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen. Cannot be discounted and the fast-growing Bavarian Seehofer points in the history of the “Union of Christians” there were precedents when the common candidate of the allies became the representative of CSU.

photo: ru.wikipedia.org
German Finance Minister Wolfgang schäuble is considered one of the most likely candidates for the post of Chancellor in the event of displacement of Angela Merkel.

But most often in this context referred to the Minister of Finance, which enjoys great prestige as the population and the party members. “There is only one alternative, Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schaeuble — says the Deputy editor of the influential German weekly Die Zeit Bernd Ulrich. Compared to Merkel, he perceived the party as more and more hard-right politician, as a person who can send the world a message of invalid convergence, which so many expect today.” (In sense — to signal that the current immigration rate leads to disaster.)

The chief accountant of the country, however, serious health problems: after a perfect on him in 1990 assassination Schaeuble is a wheelchair user. Besides, he is not young: in September, will celebrate his 74th birthday. However, from the point of view of tolerant German voters lack both of these are rather dignity. And indeed, the Minister not so long ago pointedly noted that Konrad Adenauer was 73 years old when he first took the Chancellor post. For reference, in the resignation of the first Chancellor of Germany left us at the age of 87 years.

In General, Merkel has much to ponder. The political future of the Angels depends entirely on whether she will be able to restrain the demons, personally released her from the bottle. The motives of the decision taken a year ago and now seeming suicidal, deserve a separate discussion. One thing is clear: Merkel underestimated the extent of the problem and overestimated their ability and that of countries that were truly rubber. The chances of political survival, she still has, but the margin for error is no more. The limit is exhausted.

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