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Sunday, December 4, 2016

War over the Crimea will not be, experts believe


The head of the Crimea Sergey Aksenov does not believe in the possibility of war with Ukraine for Crimea. “Russia is a nuclear state and can protect their interests and their allies in every corner of the world,” he said at a meeting with a delegation from Jordan. Interviewed by “MK” experts also do not believe in the possibility of an attack on Russia, not only Ukraine, but also any other country in the world.


photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Alexei MAKARKIN, a political scientist, first Vice-President of the Center for political technologies:

“Because of the Crimea military actions really can’t be — they weren’t in 2014, will not continue. Now, of course, there are experts that consider different apocalyptic scenarios, but if we talk about a country with nuclear weapons, to threaten her with war — prohibitive risk. The existence of nuclear weapons is a serious constraint. We can talk about something else: if, say, the Ukrainian-Russian conflict reaches peak sharpness, perhaps a sharp tightening of economic sanctions. For example, as was threatened before, Russia will disconnect from the international interbank payment system SWIFT. Then our banking system will be thrown back to the days when bills were sent by Fax…

Economic war with the West loosely already underway. But the military scenario, I think, is irrelevant. The modern Western world does not want to fight: people: even when we are talking about a small human losses, treat it very negatively. Even odobravanja informed the British Falklands war, which Margaret Thatcher in the early 80-ies of the last century waged against Argentina, is now causing a lot of controversy: discussion, whether they were the victims and why…

There are, of course, the notion of obligations. But neither in Ukraine, nor in respect of any other part of Russia, such commitments to fight the West. Yes, he has obligations to the Baltic States to protect them in case of aggression by another state, but Russia strongly demonstrates that the Baltic States it’s not going to fight.”

Vladimir ZHARIKHIN, political scientist, Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries:

“Any war with Russia can be conducted only with the use by Russia of all her opportunities, and they are well known. Provocation, of course, can be the sending of saboteurs, too, but large-scale military actions involving Russia and Ukraine, or Russia and NATO, seem to me unlikely.”

Igor Korotchenko, a military expert, chief editor of the magazine “national defense”: “For Ukraine it would be madness to start a war with Russia. She would not venture. Despite the absurdity of the policy of the current authorities of Kiev, they understand that this will mean a complete collapse. The power resource of our countries are not comparable”.

The Return Of The Crimea. Chronicle of events

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