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Friday, October 21, 2016

Europe prepares to strangle Ukraine Turkish, southern and Northern streams

Struggle to participate in Russian gas supplies to Europe escalated. At least in the creation of a new pipeline, which will exclude from the scheme of this export route Ukraine. On the eve of visit to Russia the head of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear that he is ready to unfreeze the project “Turkish stream.” At the same time the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Boyko Borisov said that soon will arise the Russian-Bulgarian working group, which reanimates the construction of the gas pipeline “South stream”, an alternative route for the export of “blue fuel” to Europe. It means that if the decision on the establishment of a particular pipe will, after their completion the gas pipeline system of Ukraine will be turned off from the game and Kiev will finally collapse into an economic abyss.

photo: pixabay.com

New gas pipe from Russia to Europe should be laid. And that’s the kind of proposed by Russia, is still in question. There are three routes: Nord stream-2 and South stream and “Turkish stream”.

Nord stream-2″ is an extension of the already existing gas pipeline from Russia through the Baltic sea to Germany. Its capacity will be 55 billion cubic meters.

“South stream” wanted to build across the Black sea from Anapa to Bulgarian Varna, and then its branches would reach Italy and Austria. Capacity — 63 billion cubic meters.

“Turkish stream” is actually the equivalent of “the South”, he also went to the bottom of the Black sea from Anapa, but not in Bulgaria and in Turkey. On the Turkish-Greek border had hoped to build a distribution hub through which the gas is able to other EU countries.

However, with the construction of each of these conduits constantly had problems. And it wasn’t that there wasn’t enough money. Investments were in abundance. To look only to their shareholders. For example, the Nord stream-2″ should be owned by Gazprom (51%), German E. ON, Austrian OMV, Shell international, BASF/Wintershall (10%) and ENGIE (9%). Control of the shipping section of the “South” apart from Gazprom (50%) expected to receive the Italian Eni (20%), French EDF Group and Wintershall AG of German (15%). Overland sections of the route had to be found partly in the Austrian, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Greek, Serbian, Slovenian and Croatian possession. “Turkish stream” would be at the disposal of our two countries by definition.

All three of the gas pipeline was beginning to cost, but then stopped. European countries that were interested (and financial) in creating these routes, strongly inhibited the process. In 2012, Brussels launched against the “South stream” an investigation on compliance with the requirements of the third energy package that obliges the Russian side to give independent companies up to 50% of the capacity of the pipe. When Moscow refused, the European Commission forced Bulgaria to block the construction, which paralyzed the laying of the offshore section under the Black sea.

With the “Turkish stream” everything seems to be going well — we wanted to make it a substitute for the “South” and to use for its construction are already laid pipes through the black sea waters. But shot down in November 2015, the Turkish air force Russian su-24 put an end to this project.

Nord stream-2″ while nobody cancelled, but it is categorically against the US state Department. At first glance, Washington’s neither here nor there — what difference to him, Russia is building new pipelines to Europe or not? But the us still support Ukraine, and the construction of the Nord stream-2″, as well as the completion of other gas transmission projects, pipeline system cross the Square from the scheme of deliveries of Russian gas to the countries of the Old world. Kiev in this case finally drowned in the financial maelstrom. It would have to support by issuing them new credit. Therefore, the United States and resist the construction of Russian gas pipelines.

But it is obvious that in Europe think otherwise. After Erdogan apologized to Vladimir Putin for downed bomber, the two sides announced a possible recovery of the “Turkish stream”. And this is understandable. Moscow best any alternative to Ukraine as a gas transit state, Ankara can receive up to $3 billion per year for the supply of “blue fuel” to Europe.

There is a desire to revive the frozen South stream” on fire Bulgaria, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, which stated that working groups will be established for the restoration of Russian energy projects, including the construction of the pipeline.

If Turkey is to establish a pipe operates relatively independently (of course, without Russia, the country is heading into a pit — fall in tourist flow, the decline in exports of vegetables, fruits and so on), Bulgaria clearly operates with the filing of Brussels, and offer to restore negotiations on the “South stream” initiated by “big brother” — by the European Commission. In this case, Russia gets a chance to bargain and bring down the cost of the project. In the middle of last year the then Minister of energy and natural resources Taner Yildiz has guaranteed our country better discounts than 10% for the construction of the first line of Turkish stream. We can assume that Bulgaria will also promise similar benefits.

There’s only one trouble — constructing a particular pipeline, Russia will be in some dependencies either from Turkey or from Bulgaria, which, like Ukraine, will be able to blackmail our country and to demand the discounts on Russian gas.

However, both pipes, as well as Nord stream-2″, can still be built. Europe is on the threshold of the gas of the hunger strike. Of course, it is not a question of one or two years, and one or two decades. According to the British Agency European Center for Energy and Resource Security, by 2035, it is possible to shortages of production in Europe in the amount of 90 billion cubic meters. Now the consumption in Europe is around 400 billion According to the Deputy head of “Gazprom” Alexander Medvedev, by 2025 the demand for additional supply will amount to 145 billion cubic meters, and by 2035 will rise to 185 billion That is, on a circle nearly 600 billion Russia is able to increase production on these volumes. However, this requires investment and technology, which we lack. The obstacle is that of sanctions. Already many European countries talk about the need to remove them. Perhaps the resumption of negotiations on the establishment of the “South stream” — is the first step.

Sanctions . Chronicle of events

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