The call of China’s defense Minister to prepare for the “people’s war at sea” should not be taken literally, China is not going to start fighting. But the confrontation between China and the United States in the China seas is becoming more serious. So coming in next month’s Sino-Russian military exercises in the South China sea have important symbolic value.
Chinese defence Minister Chang Wanquan during an inspection tour in the coastal areas of Zhejiang province said about threats in the sea and said that the army, the police and the people “should be prepared to mobilize to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country”, “people’s war at sea”.
“The US has no chance to contain China in the South China sea”
It is clear that it is the East China sea, where there are disputed Islands with Japan, and, in the first place, on the South China sea (SCS), where China argues a group of countries, conducted emissions of the United States. And in the South China sea in a month will be Chinese-Russian naval exercises “Sea interaction – 2016”. Over the last four years it will be already the sixth joint exercises of the two countries, but the first in the South China sea. The Russian side will participate in no less than four ships of the Pacific fleet, but it is important not quantity.
Last month in the same sea carried out military exercises the US and its allies – and demonstrative of both exercises is not in doubt. Russia and China are not officially allies, but in recent years increasingly demonstrate that they have more shared interests, purposes and they are ready to resist the US pressure.
USA keep Russia in Europe and China in Asia, and the latter is for States far greater significance than the first. Not because Europe does not really threaten (Ukraine is a special case, moreover, it is still not Europe, but part of the Russian world, so that even really minded Atlanticists will take his victory its buffer status), and China overcomes its really in the Pacific. Simply the containment of China for many years considered a priority of American policy, and in the last few years a reversal in the Pacific became the official goal of the United States.
Washington did not cease to be a Pacific power: the Atlanticism is only the name of the globalist ideology, and after the Second world war, America was in Asia a dominant position. It was here, on the outskirts of China, the United States waged since 1945 two major wars – in Korea (and here they directly fought with the Chinese army) and Vietnam. Constraining China arc now extends from South Korea and Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Singapore. American bases close China Eastern direction and prevent the dissemination of military influence to the South. Meanwhile, the South is China, a key direction of the projection of its influence – for many centuries, the Han civilization is expanding in this direction.
This does not mean that China is going to Annex the countries of South-East Asia. But he rightly believes that these States, from ancient times experiencing its great cultural, economic and even ethnic influence, belong to the zone of its national interests. European colonialists first occupied Southeast Asia, they cut off her from China, and then expansion began already in the very China – and now China wins back the situation back. For US, the issue of containing China in the Pacific and Southeast Asia is crucial. Without this, all their claim to hold the status of world hegemony is meaningless.
Can the United States to contain China in the near future? Of course not – not only historical cycles, but such “commonplace things” as the rising economic and military power of China, making any attempt at a military and diplomatic containment of Chinese spring in this direction is pointless. But this does not mean that Washington will not in all possible ways to slow down Chinese expansion. Including the hope that the next cycle of Chinese history will lead to internal turmoil in China, then Beijing will not be up to the outside world. Now the main point of tension between China and the United States is the South China sea – and it was there that in September there will be joint Chinese-Russian military exercises.
China holds most of the South China sea and its Islands, its history referring to ancient maps. No decisions of international tribunals Beijing don’t care about – what the Hague court in the background of several millennia of Chinese history? China’s neighbors are, understandably, worried – Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, even a breakaway Taiwan claim part of the disputed Islands. The more that they strongly incite the Americans: they need the tense relations of these countries with China, to continue to have an excuse to find their bases on their territory (Philippine situation), the use of their ports (Singapore) and generally offers its assistance in the protection from Chinese expansion (Vietnam). You see in Southeast Asian countries that the Americans deliberately muddy the waters? You know that China is their neighbor, and the United States only foreign player who wants to use them to your advantage?
Basically, Yes – still, three of the country on my own experience ruthless American war machine (Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia), another one was their semi-colony, received independence, and are unable to get rid of the bases (Philippines). Still, concerns about Chinese plans in the region is – and Washington is on what to play.
In the past two years, China began to build on some Islands of the Spratly archipelago airports, announced its air space over them. The US needed to demonstrate that they will not tolerate any revision of the balance of forces in the region that they remain important in the Pacific and Southeast Asia. But about any military clash may not be considered. USA send the disputed area of the ships and planes make loud statements, provoke China and in response China makes a loud statement, warding off the Americans continue to pour Islands and building airfields. For Americans it is very important to demonstrate to the countries of Southeast Asia that they are on guard of their interests that they can contain China – although everyone knows that the real Washington did not oppose Beijing in the region. The United States simply has no instruments to put pressure on China, except, of course, use the discontent of the Chinese neighbors.
A large American fleet? But the program of construction of the Chinese Navy is coming at a record pace. In itself the South China sea is important to China to control the region and the subsequent squeezing out of the United States. From the South China sea is out in the Indian ocean, which passes through the Moluccan Straits, which is China in any case can not yet control, but which is fundamentally important for Подне6есной.
Because through him there is a large proportion of marine transportation – China import-export, including the middle Eastern and African energy resources. Who controls the Straits, that in case of war, controls the world. And, knowing this, China is promoting a plan for a New silk road (mostly the land) and builds ports in Pakistan. While the situation in the South China sea are directly linked to the situation in the East China sea, where China and Japan dispute over Islands. With the ability of the US to contain China in the South and East, watching all the key players, and it is clear that Japan is closely watching what is happening in the South China sea.
Therefore, the United States raise rates. Defense Minister threatens China “consequences,” and last month, the States conducted in the South China sea military exercises, which along with Australia and New Zealand participated, albeit in small numbers, and Japanese sailors.
In these circumstances, Russia has shown its solidarity with China. Although we do not intervene in disputes about the Spratly Islands – only emphasize that external forces should not affect the settlement of disputes between neighbors, that is, condemn the American intervention – it is clear that, in fact, Russia was sympathetic to the Chinese plans. Displacement of the US from the South China sea is in our national interest and geopolitical plans. We only it is important that you don’t drive a wedge between China and Vietnam, to Hanoi did not take citiesall the SCS as directed against him.
Vietnam cannot increase its part of the Spratly Islands, or to return to the Paracel Islands (disputed and also in the SCS), but he certainly needs to feel safe and not allow Americans to play on the Vietnam-China territorial disputes. Russia in this situation can act as a fair, disinterested party – that is, a country with historically close relationships with Vietnam, with China. We supported (albeit informally) China right on the South China sea, because we are confident that the region no Americans will be safe and secure for all the peoples that inhabit it. And because the return of China is a natural historical process.
And, of course, because the value of China’s solidarity with us in the Crimea. Yes, China’s support for Crimea’s informal – so our real position on the South China sea is not spoken in the whole world. That is why such symbolic gestures as the joint naval maneuvers in the South China sea, say more than a thousand words.Related posts: