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Friday, December 9, 2016

In a dispute with China over the Islands there are anti-Russian motive


A campaign of the American destroyer in the South China sea near Beijing built artificial Islands, of course, caused a sharp rebuke to the Chinese authorities. Why Washington consciously plays on the deterioration in us-Chinese relations? The pressure on China, Americans expect to make it more tractable, and is directly linked to US policy toward Russia.

The Islands of the Nansha Islands (the spratlys) are historically a matter of dispute. China has traditionally thought about them – even though they are located a thousand kilometers from the southernmost point of the country of Hainan island. Like closer to China, and occupied forty years ago, Huangsha Islands (Paracel), they are considered by Beijing as Chinese lands that are open during the voyages of the great Admiral Zheng he in the early 15th century, even before the European age of discovery.

“Wreaking havoc with the March of the destroyer to the Spratly archipelago, the us wants to scare China, but rather to push him closer,”

The median Empire by this time had already existed for thousands of years, but far sea voyages after Zheng he’s no longer involved in the new Emperor decided that it makes no sense to swim in a far land of barbarians, and huge ships just rotted away. But soon the barbarians themselves came to the South China sea – one hundred years later, the island recorded in his Empire by the Spaniards.

In the next centuries the whole region South of China was divided among the European powers – Spain, Britain, Holland, France. But since the Chinese were no sea trade, no sea expansions, they are not particularly interested in this flickering in the South of China.

In the 19th century weakened China itself has become the target of aggression – first the economic and then military: he was forced to open, and then began to transform into a semi. Began a period of turmoil, first from rebellions and foreign invasions, and then with the civil war and the occupation – which lasted almost a century until the mid 20th century and recreate a unified China.

During this time, the uninhabited Spratly Islands changed masters and become the Apple of discord – at the end of the 19th century lost the war the United States Spain gave them the Philippines, which became an American protectorate. Islands as if attached to lying away to the East of the Philippines. Two decades later, the French owned located West from the Islands of Indochina, declared their rights to them and even took them under their control. The then Chinese government declared the protest, but no one listened – and, in 1941, came the Japanese, and drove out the French, creating an island base of submarines.

In 1945 the Japanese left – and Beijing sent a garrison. But then roused France – which on behalf of the colony of Viet Nam announced their Vietnamese. The dispute soon subsided, and the island remained uninhabited, serving as a place for fishing.

But after coming to power in Beijing in 1949, the Communists, the theme of lost territories became relevant again – it was necessary to eliminate the effects of all the “unfair treaties” of the 19th century in which the country lost various territories – such as Hong Kong. And generally return everything is gone from Outer Mongolia (whose independence the Soviet Union was able to defend) and Tibet to the Senkaku Islands (occupied by Japanese), Paracel and Spratly. Paracel Islands China has taken in 1974, when the Americans left South Vietnam, but over the spratlys in recent decades there is a struggle.

Since 50-ies of the Islands took the first Vietnamese, then Filipinos, and Taiwanese, and in 80-e years they were joined by the Malays. Part of the archipelago believes its fishing area, and Brunei, but he’s not the garrisons were planted. So now the island is divided between five countries – China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines. All Islands about a hundred of them are scattered a thousand kilometers, and about half of engaged military forces of any country. The rest of the “island” is just reefs and rocks, and “large” Islands just microscopically small: a total area of only five square kilometers.

Most controls Vietnam, then China, the largest island occupied by Taiwan, about a dozen small took the Philippines, several Islands occupied by Malaysia. No one is going to concede. The reason is not only that they all want to catch fish – but at a potential huge oil and gas reserves. But most importantly, of course, is the strategic position of Spratly Islands lie on the way from the Indian ocean to the Pacific, from the Straits of Malacca to China and Japan, is on the main trade route of the present.

A huge amount of goods – and whoever controls the spratlys, in case of war close communication between the Pacific area and the Middle East and Europe. Therefore, in recent years, China went on the offensive – he began construction of artificial Islands on which to place a military airfield. Unlike other countries, claiming the archipelago, China does not have its own airfield there – and the distance to its shores more than the applicants.

China’s motivation is clear – it wants to secure its southern borders, to strengthen our presence in the South China sea. And his opponents are there not Vietnam with the Philippines and the United States. That is why the campaign of the American destroyer is a demonstration and provocative. The us wants to show who’s boss.

China’s reaction was sharp – Beijing accused the US of violating the sovereignty of China and was advised not to “create an incident from scratch”, saying that it will take all necessary measures to protect own security. No, war now, of course, will not be – but that’s why Obama is pulling the dragon’s tail?

The archipelago is potentially the most dangerous military point in the Pacific along with the Korean Peninsula. It is clear that China, under the regaining of the status of the main powers in the region, to build a airfield and will increase its military presence in order to promote its security and to emphasize the claim to the whole archipelago.

China, of course, wants the countries of the region was in its orbit, but it is still more urgent: how can I make it so that they were agents of hostile influence. And increased Chinese military presence in the South China sea is associated first and foremost with a desire to squeeze out the region’s current “guarantor of the security of all mankind” – the United States. Ideally, of course, China would like to return to Southeast Asia and the South China sea to the days before the coming of the “pale-faced barbarians” – when Admiral Zheng was able to swim to Africa and Arabia, without encountering any Europeans.

While China is in no hurry – time is running out on him, and he thinks in terms of cycles and decades. Unlike States and even in General the Anglo-Saxon strategists – which, of course, also play a long-term Outlook, but because of the incomparable historical experience have much smaller exposure and are often frustrated and mistaken.

For example, the Americans engaged in the China game. They both invite him to divide the world into two and show him their claims to continue to be a global hegemon. On the one hand, States have a few years as declared its pivot toward the Pacific region – as the center of gravity of the world in the 21st century. Offer China to build a mutually beneficial relationship – the neighbors on the ocean, the world’s two largest economy, a huge trade. But the Chinese somehow don’t agree – as proposed by Biden to organize the “big two” and all to share, and no answer.

The answer, however, is simple – the Chinese are well and see the fear of US in front of them, and Washington’s desire to contain China by any means. Fear in this case is caused not by the fact that Beijing is threatening US – no, just his growing power calls into question us plans for global domination. And threatening-just the Americans, the Chinese – whose military bases are located around the perimeter of the Eastern borders of China.

Now who controls the world’s sea routes? USA – only they have a huge network of military bases around the world, the largest Navy and the ability in case of war, to block all channels, ins and outs. And what is surprising is that China considers them a major threat to its security?

Yes, as long as the US does not announce a policy of global containment of China – unlike Russia – but Beijing is aware of what try to make USA as security in the same South China sea, where they actually urged on China’s neighbors and economic relations. Barely a few days after the end of the state visit of XI Jinping in the United States, as President Obama announced the conclusion of negotiations on the TRANS-Pacific partnership – a trade and economic Union that has a distinct anti-China orientation. Yes, and accompanied it with this comment – “we can’t allow countries like China to write the rules of the global economy. We should write those rules”.

At the same time, wreaking havoc like the current campaign of the destroyer to the Spratly archipelago, the us wants to scare China – but rather to push them closer, to make more compliant. Let’s agree – as would offers Washington, let’s divide the world together. And don’t look Russian, don’t listen to what they have to offer – “we will join the decline of the American hegemony”, “we will tear off Europe from the United States.”

The anti-Russian motive is becoming more important – although Washington still pretends that he is not particularly concerned about Russia’s geopolitical activity on a global scale. Well, the Ukraine – but this is Europe, we have everything under control, well, Syria – but it’s the middle East, we wanted to reduce its presence there. But the Union of Russia and China is totally unacceptable to the American world order – because by its very fact he invalidates.

Therefore, their pressure on China, the United States is now just playing hard to get – in the hope that China realizes what a serious guy he is, and stop being friends with Ivan-fool. The calculation of risk – but once it worked. At least so say the Americans. In the early 70’s they were able to restore relations with Beijing, that is playing the Soviet card, Communist China suddenly responded to the wooing of the United States.

But then China is considered to be the main threat to the USSR – and that was played by Nixon and Kissinger. More precisely, he has played Mao – he really thought that the Soviet Union is carrying anti-Chinese plans, which in reality was not. For Mao it was important not to allow Moscow and Washington closer together, because the Union of two such powerful opponents, he would be a deadly threat to China.

And Kissinger was building his triangle. It was fundamentally important to the United States had a closer relationship with Moscow and Beijing than between them. A decade and a half the States have tried to use this balance of forces to deter the Soviet Union, and sometimes they managed to cooperate with Beijing even in the military confrontation of the USSR, such as in Afghanistan. And when China decided to change the balance of forces in the triangle and start to get closer to Russia, it was too late – in the late 80s relations between Moscow and Washington have become so close, that the Soviet Union collapsed.

But then China was weak side of the triangle, and now it has become almost equal to the US economically. And in geopolitical terms, the initiative was assumed by Russia, and the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is in recent years, especially intensified after the 2012. The attempt of States to insulate one of the parties “kissingerism triangle and closer to the second side, either to no avail. In the most advantageous position was China, which maintains close relations with both powers.

But the close economic relationship and a close strategic relationship is two big differences: in the second case we are talking about the future, about the global Outlook. And in their vision of Moscow and Beijing is incomparably more General – in the absence of the fundamental contradictions that is the United States and China.

Suffice it to recall that Russian warships are increasingly conducting joint military exercises with the Chinese – and not intrude into the territorial waters of the PRC.

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