Statement of Donald trump about the Crimea and the third world today, created a sensation. The party Congress in the US, behind us, and before the presidential election – another three months. During this period, Hillary Clinton and Donald trump are all means to prove the mutual unfitness for work as the head of state and commander in chief. Will try to involve independent, undecided voters and even political opponents, which could potentially become defectors. What are the chances of each of them?
Both candidates have flaws. In fact, these flaws are so serious that in the old days, and Hillary and trump would have long ago forced out of the election campaign, but now everything is not as it once was.
The U.S. justice Department announced that Ms. Clinton did not commit any illegal acts, using private server to transmit secret information. The same Ministry of justice through its Federal prosecutors does not find grounds to initiate a criminal case against Donald trump for incitement to interference in American policy foreign powers – trump expressed hope that Russia will enter in the database Hillary, and will find the 30 000 missing emails.
The American press is replete with publications on the relationship of the tramp with Russia, about his affair with Putin”, etc., but beyond that it is not. Same with Clinton: The Washington Post, checking the veracity of her explanation about the use of personal servers, has awarded the former head of the state Department four “Pinocchio” – this means a low level of conformity to the truth. But for American justice Hillary is not a liar and a fraud, and credible and respected figure.
The powers that be clearly do not want to disrupt the election and therefore turn a blind eye to offences the main candidates. After the elections the position of judges can change – especially with respect to that of the candidates who lost the election. For example, if you lose a trump, he has a good chance to get a subpoena in the case of the so-called “trump University”. The chances of the summons will be less real if the on 8 November, the trump will become President of the United States.
In turn, Hillary is still not behind the trouble associated with emails (the U.S. state Department continues its investigation, the results of which can be very unpleasant for the former Secretary of state). And, again, it is unknown what charges and lawsuits may arise in the course of the investigations of the work of the Clinton Foundation, which has generously donated money from foreign donors as Hillary’s foreign Minister. Donations Saudi sheiks, Russian oligarchs and other rich people overseas are given in exchange for something, not just for the love of bill or Hillary.
As we know, are not judged – but which of the two will be the winner? After the Congress of Democrats Hillary came forward in the survey by Reuters and Ipsos sociological service, 41% of likely voters expressed a preference for it, and 35% – Trump. (Gap of 6% is already beyond the limits of statistical error).
Even greater separation from Hillary trump shows a fresh survey by CNN and Opinion Research Corporation, 52% to 43%. And even if the opposition of these two candidates will interpose a third and delay a part of votes (it could be a candidate from one of the microscopic parties – libertarian, or Green), the odds Hillary will still be 8%.
But trump is betting on victory, not on a national scale, and in a few individual States, which can decide the outcome of elections: it is Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. Campaign headquarters trump and the main “independent” organization in support of his candidacy place ads in the media only in those States. Hillary acts differently: in addition to these – certainly very important – States is waging a propaganda campaign in a number of other.
In the electoral College U.S. 538 votes. The biggest prize of the campaign – California with its 55 votes, but she’s a Trump obviously does not Shine. States where there are a lot of people with a good education and where many Latinos and other racial minorities, is not a territory of the trump. Its geographical base is the American heartland, place of residence, uneducated white people.
He can get the second prize is Texas with 38 electoral votes, but then there are the States of new York and Florida, each of which has 29 votes, there is a lot of racial minorities, a lot of educated people and a lot of moderate Republicans who do not want to vote for the ignorant tramp with his coarse speeches and crazy ideas.
Pennsylvania (20 votes) since 1988, always got the Democrats so that there is “nothing to catch”. Trump has scared off voters Colorado (9 votes) and Virginia (13), who once voted for George Bush – who, unlike trump, strongly flirted with Latinos and acted as a moderate candidate acceptable to the educated and affluent residents of these States. Usually tending to Republicans North Carolina (15 votes) this time favorable to Hillary: lives there are too many people with higher education and African Americans – the trump for and the other is totally unacceptable.
American politics, trump is unprecedented, the candidate receiving the nomination of one of the two parties. The person who offends the parents of the deceased in Iraq, the officers of the us army only because they were Muslims. Which defy the honored General-marine John Allen (former head of the Central command of the armed forces of the United States) only for the fact that he does not support trump. Which… Not going to list all of his “services”. They are turned away from him even the lead sponsors of conservatism – brothers-billionaires coke, which always financed the election of conservative candidates.
But in the current campaign there have been so many miracles that won’t exclude another – the election of a President trump.
Ilya Paranicas, New York