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Monday, March 12, 2018

“Changing of the guard” in the bureaucratic mill

Will the July “house of cards” with the change of the President of the country leaders of all stripes a refreshing shower among the hot baking for the public administration system in General? This will be clear after some time. But it is already clear that, for example, a search of the house at the head of the Federal customs service (now retired) — a phenomenon out of the ordinary. From similar events is that we remember the case of “Oboronservis” with the subsequent UPS and downs of the personal lives of the main characters, so that it is not clear that more had to be — annoying arrogance outright hypoglycaemia or a family showdown in the unsuccessful adultery. Any system of permutations follow.

Last year was rich in high — profile arrests- Vyacheslav Gaizer of Komi, Nikita Belykh of Kirov region, Alexander Khoroshavin of Sakhalin region, Igor Pushkarev Vladivostok, Evgeny DoD, RusHydro, and now it came to Andrei Belyaninov. Obviously, such a chain cannot be a coincidence. Almost all of this would be possible without a nod to the global change of the top with power. Moreover, in this situation it does not matter the position and status. If previously opened cases only relatively minor regional officials, now “work” for everyone.

It seems that the Russian leadership decided that for the system of public administration passed point of no return. Just a little bit, and the boat of the political system goes down. So, you need to dump ballast in the form of inefficient officials. Why can they sink the ship? Very simple: first, many began to state simply can not afford. Funds in the Federal budget sorely lacking, the Reserve Fund is fading away, so more of the money goes to “rent” the top. Habit of those in power to live on a Grand scale, with expensive oil and nacitanych income, indestructible, to abandon it, it seems that no one is going. Re lovers of luxury this is it. To continue to serve — no money. The only solution is a complete change of elites.

In addition, the inefficiency of the current, the tops of the cut eye, not as openly blatant disgrace. Our economy for nearly two years, is heading into the abyss, but changes are not visible. Where is the reform of the customs system? Where reform of the tax system? Where is the reform of the management system? They are not. But there have been attempts to secure the paperwork only at selected customs stations, which increases the processing time and facilitates corruption. Still not resolved the differences between the duties of the customs officers and the Customs code, which loads at the border can hang for weeks without any conditions for storage and for customs clearance of vehicles, there are many loopholes for, say, “optimization” value.

So try to keep things the old way — completely hopeless task, depends on the viability of the budget and the ability to fulfill social obligations. The Federal customs service is one of the most important structures of the Government of Russia, giving to 11.9% of Federal budget revenue is 9.5% on export duty on hydrocarbons). But people cling to old, fear of change, acting on the principle of “doing nothing, you can’t go wrong”.

Given the proximity of the head of the FCS to the head of state, his “access to the body directly, not through some “entourage”, we can say that this “cleansing of the elites” is already itself its narrow circle, not those who simply do not mind “let flow”, to the delight of the voters. As it was, for example, in the spring, when the Patriarch walked through the deputies, while not touching the Medina.

Mass change of influential people — it’s not just the consequences of changes in the leadership of the FSB, and the preparation of a new, younger and more effective management team. But not the next elections, as unanimously rushed to say many figures, but rather to the election of 2018 or even 2024. To open a criminal case on thieving Governor is one thing, this situation is understandable for people, and it can be used in the presidential race. But the proceedings with the head of the customs service is another story, it is an internal affair of the government without any political pre-election motive. And in the coming months, the task of a complete change of government is not necessary, the important thing is to hold legitimate elections with maximum involvement of the electorate. The current situation, when Kudrin is head of the Center for strategic research, and Medvedev — the Chairman of the Board for strategic development and priority projects, fully meets current government requirements to “reformism”. Change “a narrow circle” — the purpose of a more distant future. The fact is that if you hurry with the change of persons, it will cause panic among the elite and it is quite possible movement toward the formation of a certain coalition against the President. And here the consequences can be unpredictable. Such shocks in crisis need the least. So now given the signal for the future: to rebuild or in a new way, or be forced to leave. The first bells more or less savvy comrades heard a couple of years ago when I was given a clear message about the refusal of assets and property abroad. Now we see progressive steps, like a clear and visionary plan of action. Running “soft restructuring” will take years, and the first results will be seen until the elections in 2018.

Clearly, the time will come fresh blood and fresh ideas. And “transfusion” is not a whim but a vital necessity. The old guard of the new requirements does not meet voluntarily surrender particularly wanting to be seen, so we see the events of today. There is also the basic question of the age. The current elitist by 2024 is already over 70, it is natural that not all will retain clarity of mind and the necessary energy to physically withstand the pace of work on serious roles.

It’s the very premise of the objective and inevitable. Therefore, we are dealing not only with redistribution of power, but with the formation of a new reality and a welcome demonstration of political will. What now? Only wait and hope that they will be able to find soon a way out of the economic standstill and the population, therefore, the limit of patience. Otherwise national mass senseless and merciless, regardless of any calls to wait and discarding any logic and common sense will sweep away everything in its path, so neatly and carefully lined up. However, the recent steps of the President, associated with the instructions of the development of alternative economic programmes and create the conditions for discussion in this field, allow us to hope that the worst scenario will be avoided.

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