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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Money gone…


That there is no money, the Russians already know. But he hoped that they will appear. Still, the country’s leadership crisis took only two years, which will end in autumn 2016. If you look at the government projections, since the end of the current year needs to resume growth. In 2017, the economy should grow by 0.8%, in 2018 — by 1.8%, in 2019 — 2.2%. That is, the authorities expect an acceleration of GDP growth increases. So the money should be?

However, taken at a recent meeting at the Prime Minister’s decision to freeze Federal spending in nominal terms for three years means that money still will not. This is what happens: from the crisis in confident, but there is no money and never will? Agree, hitch. I would like clarification on this, but they are not. Will have to sort out themselves.

Translated into simple human language what it means (“nominal”, etc.). So, the Finance Ministry has proposed to fix the Federal budget spending in the 2017-2019 biennium. at the level of 15.8 trillion rubles a year. This, incidentally, is less than would be in 2016 — almost to 16.3 trillion rubles a year. That is next year’s money in the budget will be less than this year, when many social obligations remain outstanding: pensions were indexed from 1 February 2016, a mere 4 percent when the actual inflation by the end of 2015, at 12.9%, the maternity capital and the payment of honorary donors are generally not indexed, was indexed pensions to working pensioners, etc.

But not only that money in the budget next year will be smaller, they will remain the same in 2018 and 2019. Even here it is far from complex economic matters people will ask: and inflation? Correctly ask. Because this is now one of the expenditure the same over the next three years — it is the very immutability “in nominal terms”. Inflation over three years would devalue the money so much. Of course, it all depends on the level of prices, but in any case it will not be less than twenty percent reduction in funds in real terms. For clarity: you had 100 rubles, will be in 3 years 80 rubles.

If you look at the proposed reductions in the context of government programs, the picture is the following: of the 42 programs of cost reduction (nominal!) it is expected for 36 programs (development of health, education, social support, availability of housing, etc.)

In General, life promises to be difficult.

Back to the questions posed above: we have already many times heard about the end of the crisis, the turn to economic growth, where is the money? What kind of economic growth, if there is no money… and never will?

The problem is that even if economic growth will be next year, which I personally strongly doubt, he will not be able to provide the level of incomes in the Federal budget so that its costs are not frozen, and grew.

To ensure expenditures from the reserves is also not impossible. These costs, incidentally, are eating faster than what was expected. Why is this happening? Because not much running income plan: compared to the first half of 2015, Federal budget revenues in the first half of 2016 decreased by 13% that year-end can result in a shortage of not less than 1.3 trillion rubles.

Where to take missing money? Take from the Reserve Fund and prepare for the national welfare Fund (NWF) to spend on current needs.

It is expected that in 2016 we will use up the Reserve Fund over 2 trillion rubles., well, next year we have this Fund quite finish off. Remains of the NWF, but there are elections in 2018 with all the ensuing consequences.

Generally with the reserve funds we have such a thing: before the elections of 2018 in them any more money, and then…

It turns out that earning more does not work, the store is rapidly consumed. Can I sell anything? That the government is now actively involved, hoping to bail out of the for sale video: 1-1,5 trillion rubles. Something is sold, something is waiting for their turn, but still expect that you can get enough money from all those sales, is not necessary.

It is possible, incidentally, to solve the budgetary problems of resorting to another tried and tested method is to take. And we’re going to actively do. Well, in foreign markets many to take will not work (sanctions). Then on the domestic market? It is possible. And that the Finance Ministry plans to actively engage, primarily through internal sources: net borrowing is expected to increase in the 4(!) times. But it’s, you know, plans. By the way, to take. Just what is in store then? That is the question. Because then, firstly, all this with interest will have to give. Secondly, coming with large-scale borrowings on the domestic market, we are depriving the economy of resources for domestic investment. Why somewhere to invest risk, if the state promises a good return on your papers? Only now the memories on the default of August 1998 make a skeptical about the prospects of government borrowing in times of economic crisis.

Investments in fixed assets have today very bad things. At the end of Q1 2016, they fell by 4.8% compared to the 1st quarter of 2015. No investment, no development, no economic growth, no money.

You do not like all these actions of the authorities? I, naturally, comes to mind this comparison: when money problems, and would-be owner to earn enough, can’t seem, it begins to sell household property, go into debt etc. And we always hear that everything will be okay, happiness is already here it is not far off. Yet at the same time, by the way, for some reason, are money on some completely strange things. Do I need to give an example of a similar spending at the state level?

And, here’s another, I forgot. The state in contrast to the unlucky head of the family, which cannot supply it, has in its Arsenal another opportunity to solve the problem (sort of solved) with money: they can simply print. Yes, we are talking about the notorious issue of money.

Do not believe in the seriousness of such intentions? Yes, while this the plans of the authorities there. But evolyutsioniruet they are exactly this way. To begin with, of course, we are talking about the money pumped emission economy in the form of so-called project financing to the economy to support. We heard about this program “Stolypin club”? It is important that these intentions seem more like authorities. And from such a program, if the authorities will ultimately take the risk to implement it, to direct the issue in favor of the population is not so a long way.

Then money problems will not be exact, print as many as you want. Just what is money, we understand. We need these rapidly depreciating money? No, of course.

The situation is actually quite serious. Normal consideration of the draft Federal budget for 2017-2019 will not. The project of the budget the government intends to submit to the state Duma only by 1 November of the current year, since the election of its new composition will take place on 18 September 2016, and in December the law on the Federal budget for 2017-2019 should be adopted. So how to solve the government today to freeze Federal spending — so be it. And it just been decided that way.

When we heard “no money” is, of course, cut much. But today, when we actually have said that money and will not accept this as something quite difficult.

How not to be? Why were left with nothing? Why other people have money, and we are asked to suffer?

No, it’s not a conversation, it’s not serious. The correct response to a question about how to make the money was. Maybe less to spend on geopolitical adventures for all these show-off in the form of summits, Championships, etc.? It’s a start. Plus need to revise the priorities of the Federal budget. When the question arises about the possibility of a decent indexation of pensions, the choice should be in favor of this. And so people for years suggested to wait. They were patient, waiting for a bright future. And now, after all these years the price of oil abundance, suddenly it turns out that again, no money. So actually heard that the money would not be accepted.

I know it is fashionable to say: “I heard you.” Our response today should be: “We didn’t hear you”.

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