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Thursday, December 8, 2016

If Kiev will not pay Russia, he will no longer lend


Kiev once again declared that will not return to our country of $3 billion issued in 2013 in the form of a loan. According to the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Alexander Danilyuk, the loan is “political” and it is not necessary to pay. The Kremlin said that Moscow reserves the right to respond. However, the reaction has long followed. Our Ministry of Finance has already sent to London’s High court a lawsuit against Ukraine. Consideration, according to experts, will take years. Eventually Kiev will have to pay. After all, the current Ukrainian government, repudiated by Yanukovych, is the successor.

Photo: president.gov.ua

According to the head of a direction “Finance and Economics” Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov, the total debt of other countries to Russia is estimated at $20-30 billion, the Main debtors are the States of Latin America, Africa and East, South-East and South Asia. It’s certainly not $120 billion, which was a few years ago, and not $180 billion, which was in the early 2000-ies. Part of the debt that is called “fresh” — they were issued in the period of contemporary history of Russia. Mainly in the last 15 years. Another legacy of the Soviet era.

What debts significantly, ” does not mean that they us paid cash. Moscow forgave them in exchange for a partnership with debtors. Vietnam was forgiven $10 billion, There have long existed a joint oil venture, generating a good income. China forgave $11 billion. Specific examples of joint business with China can not lead — there are dozens, if not hundreds. Recently, the Beijing repaid the loan in front of Moscow in the amount of $625 million, although this could be done until 2022.

“Most countries that have Russia, do not create problems or pay the debts or their restructurizer. Ukraine is the exception to the rule. Credit agreement between Moscow and Kiev is an international document. Not performing its terms, the Ukrainians are questioning that will comply with the terms of other documents, concluded with other countries”, — says Nikita Maslennikov.

First trust is lost from the International monetary Fund, which promised to give Ukraine $4.3 billion As stated by the press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, Russia will take measures to protect commercial interests, if Ukraine refuses to pay the debt.

However, such measures are taken. The Finance Ministry filed a lawsuit against Ukraine in London’s High court to recover the debt. This court is considered as one of the most influential instances, even more important than in the Hague or Stockholm. His decision in favor of Russia will lead to the fact that Ukraine may default on the loan.

“Even if such a risk exists in the future, the IMF will not give Kiev the promised loan. Like any other loans. This applies not only to sovereign and commercial loans. In fact, Ukraine will remain without external Fund support, which was expected, and without which it will not survive,” — says Nikita Maslennikov.

Put the squeeze on international courts and make the most of Ukraine’s $3 billion, according to the expert, Russia will still be able. But it will take several years. “Russia needs to comply with the conditions stipulated in the loan agreement. Surely there is assumed the situation that we observe. History knows such examples. In 2002, Argentina defaulted and refused to pay the loans. After 10 years in Buenos Aires began to repay debts. However, this required the change of two generations of power. Look how many generations of power change in Ukraine, to recognize their debts,” — said the expert.

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