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Sunday, October 23, 2016

The attacks forced Germany to change

Country, happily avoided the attacks during the war in the middle East and the immigration crisis, is now living in a new reality. In the remaining year of German society will drift away from political correctness, more and more listening to those non-system politicians who are not afraid to speak the truth.

Last Monday in different areas of Germany there have been four attacks with a weapon – a machete, knife, gun and explosives. Ten killed, nine of them in Munich, in the shopping center “Olympia”), a few dozen wounded.

“Germany threatens not IG*, it is threatened by internal conflicts, swollen for a while, until they were silenced by the politically correct elite”

However, three of the four attacks took place in Bavaria – the largest and most conservative German state, the population and authorities that the last year has expressed open discontent with the policies of Merkel for accepting all refugees. It is symbolic that Bavaria, loudly demanding to restore order with immigrants, and became the place where rushed.

Yes, jerked modest by current European standards – not as in Paris, Brussels or nice. But proud of his order in Germany and these scales out of the ordinary. Germany, “printed” – it is now medical fact, no matter how interpreted the incident to the authorities and the press. The consequences of this “printing” will be more than serious for the ruling forces and German society.

First, almost inevitably, falls the taboo on the discussion of international relations – because in fact it is the basis of all “incidents”. Yes, this is not pure terrorism – Chairman of the German police trade Union Rainer Wendt correctly called the recent events in Germany “with a mixture of mental instability, terrorism and crime – and it’s even possible to try not to call terrorism, as do the German authorities. The Minister talks about amok, the press writes about mental aggravation – but the Germans themselves know what is the main cause of these events.

Cultural, religious, national, civilizational distinctions between the indigenous population of Germany and Muslim migrants – millions of migrants, including those born in Germany. This is the soil in which grow the grapes of wrath – first visitors, and then visitors. The reluctance to admit it was a fundamental rule of German politics.

And anyone who tried to speak honestly about this – about the failure of the policy of multiculturalism, about the impossibility to adapt a different culture, about the fallacy of the policy of mass admission of migrants, declared hardly probable not the enemies of society, shake hands with the extremists. Six years ago, peck of the former Berlin Senator for Finance, Theo Sarrazin, who became academic with German thoroughness to prove the unwillingness of Muslim immigrants to adapt to German society.

But in recent years to contain the discontent has become more difficult – from below, from ordinary citizens rose movement PEGIDA (declared Islamophobic), and after the beginning of last year “invasion of migrants” broke the silence already a policy.

First and foremost, those Bavarians – albeit fairly gently, but they demanded that the Merkel government to adjust immigration policy. Berlin partial concessions but not so large that it was possible to reverse the unfavourable development of the situation. Everything has been programmed – a million of refugees accepted, millions of poorly adapted migrants. The question was when and where will jerk. What occurred now was precisely echoes last year’s controversy about migrants. All four attackers were Muslims, two of them are Syrian refugees.

Yes, it’s not the attacks of the “Islamic Caliphate” of ISIS took responsibility, and it is clear that in hindsight, only for the massacre in the train, during which, by the way, the most affected Chinese tourists. And in Munich, the killer of Iranian origin, was shot mainly in the local Turks and Albanians. Yes, it is a mixture of psychosis, revenge, the desire to intimidate and other things – but this is the signs of unhealthy situation in German society.

Germany threatens not IG – as, indeed, France and rest of Europe – it is threatened by internal conflicts, swollen for a while, until they were silenced by the politically correct elite.

What lines of conflict now is in Germany?

First, it is the tension between who arrived in recent years, migrants from the greater Middle East and Africa and local residents. As if the Germans were told that “Germany for all”, the majority of the population (albeit not openly) wants to see Germany not German.

Second, this tension between living for several decades, Muslim immigrants and local – preserving their customs and way of life in Germany, visitors do not intend to, and can’t melt into German society.

Thirdly, the tension between adherents of traditional society and values and supporters of multiculturalism, that is, supranational, nationless way. Of course, there are contradictions between the German Catholics and Muslims – but even more contentious area is the coexistence in one space of the LGBT culture and Salafi Islam.

Fourthly, the tension between law-abiding citizens working and living on benefits illegal migrants and refugees. Among illegal immigrants, there are many those who are not going to live by the law, and expects to earn a frankly criminal manner.

What do the German elites? They try not to notice these problems. They say, we are all Germans, Muslim citizens – the same citizens as everybody else, migrants in need of assistance, and all who obey the law, you can count on. The fact that such a position is not enough, a growing number of Germans did not care much about politicians, it was believed that properly educated majority will always wait patiently and obediently.

While it was clear that by refusing not to solve, but even to recognize the problem, the German authorities only worsened the situation – sooner or later, ethnic tensions will still explode, and the consequences of the explosion may be uncontrollable. Roughly speaking, the German elite would be wise and profitable to spend some correction of the policy towards migrants and the Muslim community to then not be surprised natural, street address the issue.

But, apparently, the conviction of the supporters of globalization (namely, in the spirit of its inevitability and infallibility brought up the majority of the German political class) that “everything is under control and headed in the right direction,” drowned out not only the objective perception of reality, but the instinct of self-preservation (in this case the power).

Last year’s migrant crisis itself marked the beginning of a new phase in the life of Germany – it became clear that soon the pendulum will swing the other way. A coiled spring has not yet started to straighten up, but all there is to it. This does not mean that tomorrow Germany will take power antimigrant minded forces – but the sympathy of the society for such policies will grow steadily. And considering that the mood against the Islamic emigration and a critical attitude to European integration often complement each other, the challenge is to the fundamental principles of German policy.

And despite the fact that in the system field, such rebels are almost there – except non-partisan PEGIDA and beleaguered nationalist radicals, there is only “Alternative for Germany”. And this political party, initially uniting eurosceptics, is now gaining popularity. She’s already represented in several land parliaments, and its Federal rating of over 15 percent – but the migrant subject in the remaining year is quite able to bring her a few more percentage points.

Hardly “Alternative” will be able to break from his current third place (sympathy vote) on the second (pushing the social Democrats), but in any case, the mere amplification of the signal for adjustment of the ruling German coalition.

Elections to the Bundestag will be held in a year and less likely that this will continue the current ruling “Grand coalition” combining right-wing CDU-CSU, the SPD and the left. The party of Merkel’s CDU was large disagreement on the issue of migration with its Bavarian sister, the CSU – but after what happened in Bavaria friction will be even greater. If the CDU does not take a tougher stance, it risks not only to aggravate relations with the Bavarians, but also lose some voters who are inclined to support “Alternatives”.

On the other hand, the SPD, occupying the openly remigrants position, it will be difficult to keep the coalition with the CDU, if that moves to the right. However, neither the social Democrats nor even the CDU-CSU will not be able to form a government for the next elections to the Bundestag – if they don’t renew the “broad coalition”, they will have to seek their partners among the smaller parliamentary parties. But votes left-wing may not be enough SPD to get a majority. And right can not help even a return to the Bundestag of free Democrats.

That is, the “Alternative for Germany” with its 15-20 per cent of MPs will be block party – despite the fact that no one wants to join her in a coalition.

Realising this prospect, the German elite now, a year before the election, begin to look for ways to solve the problem. One of the easiest may be intra-party rebellion in the CDU with Merkel’s shift from the post of party leader and Chancellor. It can occur as a few months before the election, and right before the start of the campaign.

Putting forward on elections “the new face of” Christian Democrats can try to be attributed a negative attitude to their policy on leaving kantslerin. Not the fact that it will help them to retain power – and certainly it will not stop the “Alternative”. But the situation started very much – and the German elites have no one to blame but themselves.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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