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Saturday, March 17, 2018

Merkel put German elite in front of a heavy choice

Barricades in Leipzig were only a continuation of the wave of dissatisfaction with the migration policy of the German government. Although Chancellor Merkel has herself called for tougher immigration laws, its ability to cope with the problem of refugees is hard to believe. Though, because the immigration crisis has become so widespread largely because of the Merkel.

Protests against the immigrants spilled into the streets in Leipzig in the anniversary of the party PEGIDA (the German media insist on calling it anti-Islamic, although it is rather anti-immigrant force) in addition to a rally of supporters of the party were held and clashes radicals with the police.

“The problem with Merkel is that she can’t abandon its course in the migration policy – and continued it as an effort by her party and the whole German elite”

And in some German cities through social networks begin to form self-defense squads and mutual aid – and although it is clear that it is basically a virtual education, but in itself this fact indicates the nervous condition of the society, three quarters of which considers the problem of migrants key in today’s life in Germany. Now the German society is still at a loss after the Cologne event, when the police were not able to protect local residents from attacks by migrants – but it is clear that in the mass consciousness fracture occurred.

The theme of limiting migration has unequivocally become the main – and even Chancellor Merkel, “my last summer in Germany, all refugees, forced to change the rhetoric. After Cologne “has created a new situation and we need to rethink how to bring the legislation into line with the changed reality,” he said at the weekend Merkel and her party, the CDU proposed to tighten the rules of deportation, in particular the refugees will lose the right to asylum in the event of making even a conditional sentence. But Merkel opposed the introduction of quotas – and this is the main requirement of supporters of limiting migration.

For several months, the CDU partner in the ruling coalition of the Bavarian Christian social Union supported the quota in 200 thousand refugees a year, despite the fact that last year, Germany received one million. The crisis erupted in the summer, when sharply increased the flow of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, and neighbouring countries Germany tried to restrain the influx of wishing to pass through their territory in Germany. Merkel then decided to take all – and even then it was clear that nothing good for Germany overall and for the Chancellor personally is not over.

Despite the fact that Merkel herself talked about the crisis of multiculturalism in 2005, when I took the post of Chancellor, the current immigration policy of Germany contributes to the increasing immersion in the quagmire of chaos and conflict. With the coming of chaos and the future of conflict – but isn’t this easier? The refugees are not going to adapt, and the German society is not able to digest them – especially as this year we expect at least another million “new Germans”. Even Merkel is forced to admit that “now, suddenly, we are faced with the problem that refugees arrive in Europe, and, as we have seen, we are vulnerable because they still do not have the order control, which we would wish to have.”

As many refugees moved in, Europena complaints about poor order do not imply the consent of Merkel abandoning the current migration policy – the Chancellor is still confident that it will be able to reconcile the irreconcilable. That is, the strengthening of the European Union, German law on refugees and their mass reception, as well as its own power – all you need Merkel. Such a calculation has no chance in the long run – the only question is how much more time allotted to the Chancellor to follow the same course.

Neighbors unhappy Germany “German magnet” – after all, three thousand arriving every day German land of refugees make their way through their territory. To cancel the Schengen impossible – it will be the strongest blow, and so more European unity. On Monday, the Chancellor has canceled a trip to the forum in Davos, said Tuesday that “no one should behave as if it is possible to have a single currency without a possibility to relatively freely cross the border” – that is, explained that without open borders will not single currency.

It is clear that Merkel wants not just to save Schengen and the Euro, but also to work towards further integration of the EU, in which Germany will become the sole leader. But the question is what it will be Germany – if diluted several million migrants from the East and South, it will not satisfy the majority of Germans. Already, public opinion polls record that 60 to 70 percent of the population support the proposal of the CSU to introduce quotas for refugees, and more than 40 percent believe the impact of the refugee influx will be largely negative rather than positive (38 percent think otherwise).

And three-quarters of Germans are in favour of the need for a law that would have obliged arriving to abide by the fundamental values of German society – but the problem is that it is incompatible with the current rate Merkel, and is still dominant in Germany, the policy of multiculturalism. Thus, the problem of refugees is only an indicator of problems of the device of the German society and state – the Germans have to decide what Germany (and, hence, what kind of Europe they want to build.

Formally, the elections to the Bundestag, which will be held in six years – but despite the growing popularity of eurosceptics (“Alternative for Germany” is around 8-9%), ten percent support from the “Left” and “Green” elections in 2017 must not be a shock to the basics. Now in Germany a Grand coalition of the CDU-CSU and the SPD. At the SPD about a quarter of voters, and the CDU-CSU support 40 percent – and in theory, they can easily keep the coalition after the new elections.

But that’s the theory – but in practice, it is clear that in case of continuation of the current immigration policy will not only grow the popularity of the opposition, but also to deepen the differences between the coalition partners. And not the fact that it will live up to elections. Bavarian Premier and CSU leader has threatened a possible exit from the Union with the CDU, within the leadership of the party Merkel has many of its opponents (led by the Finance Minister and her predecessor in the leadership of the CDU, Wolfgang schäuble, recently called it “the inexperienced skier that triggered the avalanche”), the SPD, never misses an opportunity to criticize the policy of the Chancellor.

In the fall of Merkel’s ratings began to fall, and for the first time in ten years of chancellorship began to seriously consider the possibility of her resignation. Moreover, the results of the elections of 2017, but early – that is, the Chancellor is facing turning at least in the “lame duck”. The problem with Merkel is that she can’t abandon its course in the migration policy – and continued it as an effort by her party and throughout the German elite. If Merkel goes on quotas – it would be a loss of face and admitting your mistakes. If it will continue to persist – will suffer as the ratings of the ruling parties and European integration, which is the same Merkel has spent much effort.

However, it is likely that the Chancellor has already made the decision not to go for elections in 2017, and therefore it does not matter to her personal rating – which, however, is unlikely to comfort not only to CSU, but supporters of Merkel’s CDU. Theoretically it may be a situation in which the Bundestag in 2017 will be split up into several factions, bad glue not that great, and even in the usual coalition – especially if the unimaginable before, but not quite a fantastic split of the CDU-CSU. Six parties – the CDU, SPD, CSU, “Left”, “Alternative for Germany”, “Green”, and may come back and FDP – none of which there is no majority, but there are serious disagreements with all the others.

Now everyone is waiting for regional elections in two months in three States will be selected by local parliaments, local government. If the CDU to lose votes, it will be an additional incentive to enhance postmarketing trends in the ruling party and tensions in the “Grand coalition” in General.

Besides she has two more issues on which the partners do not agree – it talks on the Transatlantic partnership that Chancellor wants to terminate prior to the expiration of the Obama presidency, and the sanctions against Russia, the abolition of which appear in the SPD, and CSU. Bavarian Premier and CSU leader Horst Seehofer on February 4 will come to Vladimir Putin and chief of the SPD Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel met with the President of Russia at the end of October.

Of course, while inside the German elites have not developed a “conspiracy” against the Chancellor, moreover, there is no agreement about who can be the successor to Merkel – and due to the lack of a CDU-CSU majority in Parliament by itself, a revolution in the party solves nothing.

Merkel, of course, in 10 years of chancellorship and 15 years of leadership, the CDU gained a great experience of inter-elite struggle – but, as shows the same newest German history, and any personal qualities and merits of the Chancellor not save him from losing the seat, and without an electoral defeat. Suffice it to recall how he lost his post Ludwig Erhard, Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt. So do not expect that the German establishment is in any case will allow Merkel to quietly see out the Chancellor before the autumn of next year – if pripechet, kantslerin sent to a long-deserved rest.

Still not so hot – but the claims of the German elite to Merkel about the sanctions, excessive Atlanticism and migration policy gradually mixed in an explosive mixture. Which eventually can poison even an angel.

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