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Friday, October 21, 2016

Erdogan is in a hurry to shake hands with Putin

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon visit Russia. The place of meeting with Vladimir Putin will become St. Petersburg, the main economic area of the country. It is planned to discuss issues of mutually beneficial cooperation, which was interrupted after the incident with the downed su-24. However, Russia is not so interested in a friendly hand of Turkey.

The Turkish President will visit Russia on August 9, announced in his administration. The information was confirmed by the Russian side the meeting of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, are preparing a site in St. Petersburg. In the Russian capital, Erdogan will not go, continuing the tradition started by other neutral representatives of the EU.

“We are here to normalize relations”

“Turkey is now in a very difficult position. There is a possibility of repetition of attempt of coup d’etat”

On Tuesday in Moscow held a meeting between Vice-premiers of Russia and Turkey Arkady Dvorkovich and Mehmet Simsek. The diplomats discussed the preparation for the meeting of the presidents of the two countries. “Mr. Ambassador, we were informed that our dear President confirmed that the number 9 (August) he will be in St. Petersburg. Today we are here to as quickly as possible and rapidly to normalize the situation and our relationship, which was interrupted on 24 November 2015, said after the meeting, Simsek, reports TASS. – We are faced with an unwanted situation, our relationship was interrupted for an indefinite time, but today we are here, to rapidly improve and lead to level or even above the level that was on 24 November.

The visit of the Turkish delegation – not the first lately. Before the delegates came to discuss the actions for the resumption of cooperation with Russia. “We meet at the direction of our leaders at the end of the conversation between the presidents of Russia and Turkey, – added Dvorkovich. – We need to create a meaningful framework for planning in the first half of August the meeting of our leaders.”

The negotiations of the presidents will be a very important milestone in the relations between Russia and Turkey, and in fact will put an end to the confrontation. The process of warming between Ankara and Moscow was launched on 27 June, immediately after the Kremlin received a message from Erdogan. In it, he apologized for the death of the pilot Oleg Peshkov. 29 June, Putin and Erdogan held the first telephone talks – before between them for seven months there was no contact. Later the decision was made to restore the sale of tours to Turkey, thaw for economic cooperation and so on. Personal meeting and a handshake presidents shall bind the parties ‘ intentions.

Why Erdogan is flying to Russia

One of the major issues for the Turkish side that need to be addressed, is the resumption of Charter flights between the two countries. Despite the steps that Ankara still made in the direction of reconciliation, the message of the Charter is still not resumed due to the threat of terrorist attacks in Istanbul and Ankara. In this June 30, Vladimir Putin has formally lifted a ban on the sale of tours in this direction. Now in Moscow awaiting security guarantees for the passengers, then the Federal air transport Agency will take the appropriate decision.

Note that while the number of people wanting to go to rest in Turkey is not. Most likely, the case in the absence of a Charter communication – a regular flight makes the trip more expensive and people are reluctant to buy vouchers. “Yes, Turkey is interested in, and quite often. But when they find out the price of the trip usually. For the week, in my opinion, only one case was when we bought something in Turkey,” – said earlier the newspaper VIEW Manager of a travel company Eteri Savira.

Also the staff torchere noted that now in peak season for airlines, all the boards are busy, and the renewal of the Charter communications is faced with a banal problem of shortage of aircraft.

If the issue of tourism can be considered as practically solved, that is the fate of large-scale economic projects is still in question. Russia and Turkey had an agreement on the construction of the gas pipeline “Turkish stream”, which was frozen after the incident with su-24. Turkey was certainly interested in the fact that this project was started, he did the country a major player in the gas market, important both for Russia and for Europe. However, during the confrontation, Russia has changed the vector – the EU is a vigorous discussion of project Nord stream – 2″, the project of which the pipeline will go to Germany through the Baltic sea. This project can be profitable Turkish though, because the main side – Germany – is not going to tighten it, unlike Turkey, which has turned the discussion process in the infinite auction.

Conditionally neutral territory

The choice of the Turkish side could fall on Saint Petersburg is not accidental. Petersburg traditionally played the role of one of the main economic platforms – this is international economic forum (SPIEF). Here come the delegations from European countries, Middle East, Asia and so on to discuss new projects and economic cooperation.

For several years, during which Europe and the US-led sanctions policy against Russia, in St. Petersburg the representatives of the tough-minded to the positions of Moscow countries came many times. It was visited by foreign Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Chairman of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Renzi, the former President of France and a likely candidate for this post in the next elections, Nicolas Sarkozy, UN Secretary General ban Ki-moon. They all participated in the discussion of economic issues.

In Moscow usually come with diplomatic missions. Here several times a year visited the U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry. Recently in Moscow was visited by the Prime Minister of Bavaria, Horst Seehofer, whose visit has caused confusion among other European politicians. Came here and Angela Merkel, however, the occasion was the celebration of Victory Day in great Patriotic war. The Chancellor of Germany came on may 9 and the next day, and did not participate in the parade.

“Our future depends on Turkey”

Senior researcher, IMEMO, Director of the Institute for political and social research black sea-Caspian region Viktor Nadein-Raevsky believes that as soon Erdogan’s visit to Russia is linked with the pressing need to demonstrate the establishment of relations. In the choice of St. Petersburg, he sees nothing surprising – it is a purely legal solution, which takes the administration.

“We got an apology for the downed Russian plane. In addition, Turkey has taken measures to arrest the militants who were involved in the murder of our pilots. In General, there is some progress in our relationship. But more importantly – Turkey is now in a very difficult position. Erdogan has thanked Russia for help in averting a coup. There is a possibility of repetition of attempt of coup d’etat,” – said the analyst.

The source also noted that there is reason to believe that the Turks are ready to rethink their attitude to Russia and partly policy in Syria. “Our future depends on Turkey. The fact that the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq ready to become an independent state. American policy towards Turkey and the entire region was also not satisfied with Ankara. All this requires a personal meeting between the leaders of Russia and Turkey. We have a lot of controversial issues and problems. The time has come to begin to solve them”, – said the expert.

Director of the Center for Middle East and Central Asia, analyst semen Bagdasarov said in an interview with the newspaper VIEW that the main topic of the talks in St. Petersburg will be the resumption of the construction of “Turkish stream.” “In addition, we have a very big problem in the relationship. All of them need to discuss. On the other hand, Russia should not hurry when it comes to relations with Erdogan’s Turkey. However, here we are talking more about the economy, that is why Moscow goes to this contact,” – said the expert.

Europe is pushing Turkey to Russia?

Relations with Europe could also prompt the President of Turkey to accelerate process of normalization of cooperation with Russia. Agreement on financial assistance for the refugees is clearly not satisfied with Erdogan, as he openly States, accusing the EU in a lie. So, on Tuesday in an interview with German ARD he called his European colleagues insincere. According to him, to aid in the placement of approximately 3 million refugees from Syria Turkey you need to spend 12 billion euros, but the European Union has agreed to allocate only 3 billion euros, of which Turkey has seen only a “token amount” 1-2 billion “We always keep our promises, but the Europeans kept them?” he asked, Recalling that the visa-free regime from the EU, Turkey also has not waited.

The EU also do not show softness to Erdogan, especially after he decided to submit for public discussion the idea of returning the death penalty. This happened after the military coup, after which the country began the crackdown – on suspicion of involvement in the insurgency detained a thousand people.

Unfavorable to Erdogan and the U.S., while ignoring his call to give the country to court his main opponent Fethullah Gulen, who has long lived in Pennsylvania. Ankara had tried to Gulen’s return to his homeland and to judge, but the US denied this. Now Erdogan called Gulen organizer of the rebellion in the country are hunted on all who interacted with the Hizmet movement, educated his followers.

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