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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The fall of Aleppo deploys to the middle East to Russia


“If the Syrian failure of the West is a symbol, it is Aleppo,” the Atlanticists assess the state of Affairs in the middle East. Approaching the capture of the second most important city in Syria, government troops really becomes a turning point in the whole Syrian war. And not only in it – Russia won a major psychological victory in the geopolitical conflict with the United States.

The tone of the Western media in recent days, frankly alarmist – continuing to accuse Russia in the brutal bombing of Aleppo, the press writes about the complete failure of American policy on the Syrian track. Even in the editorials of the Anglo-Saxon press says that, “do not hide the grim fact that the Obama administration now sees the complete failure of its strategy.

“The restoration of al-Assad with Moscow’s control over Aleppo means for America’s final loss of face in the middle East”

The environment and the imminent fall of Aleppo is served as a large-scale humanitarian crisis, in which blame Russia, which wants to stop the fighting, but it is clear that the West has realized his defeat in Syria. Neither the United States nor conventionally Western (where it is beneficial) Turkey can not stop the offensive of the Syrian army, which will soon regain control over Aleppo and a large part of the border with Turkey. This is the turning point in the war – oriented to the West, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the rebels can no longer get help from the outside, and the situation in the Western part of Syria clearly broken in favor of Damascus. This is not Assad’s victory, and even victory in the war for the liberation of Western (and most populous) part of Syria – but the most important promotion in her direction.

Not Moscow considers Syria as an arena of confrontation between Russia and the West – originally it was the States and Gulf countries have relied on antiasadovskie force, helping them in the civil war. By the time Russia moved from the supply of weapons to Damascus to the direct military participation of its aircraft in the fighting, the United States, Europe, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia has long been virtually written off Assad from the accounts, the debate was mostly about how to build poliakovs Syria to deal with ISIS, which suddenly grew into a strong and uncontrolled player. But less than six months, the situation has changed – now Assad with the help of Russia is regaining control over the country, and there is no “armed opposition” can’t stop this process.

To go to fight in Syria, the West does not want and can not, because technically Russia and the West there is a common enemy – ISIS. The bombing, which Washington has intensified on the Western, Iraqi front against ISIS – at the same time believing that the Syrian swamp, Russia will be stuck for a long time and will have time to agree on the division of spheres of influence in Syria, have weakened the position of the Caliphate, but could not help antisadism rebels. And without the “armed opposition” to negotiate with Moscow nothing – Russia on the side of Assad and his army, the legal state power, and what do you have?

The Geneva talks, of course, will resume, but we all know that everything is decided on the battlefield. And the smaller the territory remains under the control of “opposition”, the worse the prospects become, the more difficult will be the United States to demonstrate their influence on the Syrian settlement. In fact, the States not concerned by the strengthening of the position of Assad and that Moscow gets the right to vote in determining the future of Syria – in the end, the loss of Syria (or at least its most part) after the Russian military operations in the United States was able to brace myself.

The most unpleasant for Washington – far-reaching consequences of their destruction plan of the Syrian settlement. USA already has lost much of the confidence of the majority of the regional powers in the middle East, and the restoration of Assad with Moscow’s control of Syria means for America’s final loss of face.

It turns out that almost all of Syria’s neighbors and regional powers (excluding Iran) was with USA and Europe against the Assad regime, in one form or another, supporting the “armed opposition” – and for four years was unable to achieve his defeat. And flew Russian aircraft – and a few months Assad turned the tide in their favor. That is, Russia single-handedly beat the States with their huge military and geopolitical opportunities, and Islamic countries are helping the opponents of Assad.

The realization of this fact began in the fall, immediately after the beginning of the Russian operation – but now, when its first phase ends with the encirclement of Aleppo, the Americans in the eyes of the Arabs look particularly pale. We are ready to fight in Syria, if the coalition led by the United States makes such a decision – say, the Saudis, knowing full well that Washington will not be solved by military action (without the United States and Saudi Arabia to fight in Syria will not). But the Saudis, it is important that States have confirmed that they can not, do not want, will not be, that is denied its most important middle Eastern ally.

The reasons why the United States will not fight the domestic situation, collusion with Moscow or Iran, the reluctance to get involved in a new war, is also important, but still secondary to the Saudi princes. For them, the fundamental fact of the refusal of Washington, which they of course regard as a betrayal. And betrayal is not the first – in 2013, the Kingdom was even refused a place in the UN Security Council, so in Riyadh was unhappy with the failure of Obama’s promised strikes against Syria. So now Saudi-American relationship will run is not a cat, and a full-fledged black Panther.

Kingdom, the guarantor of the security which has always been the USA, can not trust Washington, and in the present military situation in the middle East to Riyadh this is not an idle question. Aimed at the Saudis “Caliphate”, a war with Yemen, the conflict with Iran – the Kingdom has too many issues, not to mention low oil prices, albeit largely Riyadh and provoked. States is losing Saudi Arabia – and it is symbolic that the visit to Moscow of king Salman, apparently, will take place in mid-March.

The first ever visit of king of Saudi Arabia to Russia was originally scheduled for the autumn of last year, but after the beginning of our operations in Syria, Riyadh has decided to postpone the visit, the benefit of exact dates had not yet been announced. The visit is primarily symbolic value – high-level contacts between Russia and Saudi Arabia last year and so was carried out regularly: Putin talked with Salman in new York a few days before the beginning of our operations in Syria, then in November in Turkey at the summit of “twenty”, in addition, they spoke several times by telephone, but for more substantive negotiations in Russia twice (in June and October) came the king’s son, and in fact co-ruler Mohammed.

Except the Saudis were the majority of rulers of the Gulf countries (the latter came to the king of Bahrain), and even the king of Morocco, the Western edge of the Arab world, Mohammed the Sixth suddenly remembered that he is already 14 years was not in Russia. The Arabs more than the now seriously considering Moscow as a critical player in the greater middle East, and the player is active, you want to establish close relationships.

Amid the disappointment of the Americans, not to mention a strong distrust of him because of their invasion of Iraq, and behavior during the Arab spring and the Syrian conflict, Russia looks more attractive. She is not only losing its allies, but is quite close, and in Syria and just Union, relations with Iran, that is able to soften the tension between Gulf States and Tehran.

To quarrel with Russia certainly nobody wants: knocking on November 24 Russian plane, Turkey has demonstrated all the “charms” of such a path. They are not the freezing of bilateral relations (economic relations of our country with the Arab monarchies rather modest), and the cessation of political cooperation with Moscow in their own region, in the middle East. After a quarrel with Putin, Erdogan has lost the ability to influence the Syrian, and hence the Kurdish issue, have jeopardized the national security of the state. And this is something that no ruler in the Arab world cannot afford.

Especially in conditions where the U.S. strategy in Syria has failed and no one understands no plans, no methods of Washington in the region, choosing between the belief that the US just want to prolong the fire in the region as long as possible, and the suspicion that no strategy, they just don’t have.

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