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Thursday, October 27, 2016

The main intrigue of the presidential campaign in the U.S. will be fighting for the post of Vice President

On Tuesday there was another pre-election debate of candidates in US presidents from Republican party. Before the presidential election is exactly a year, and to predict now the name of the successor to Obama is useless. Although walking for almost six months the active part of the election campaign revealed major long-term trend in American politics – the request is not just to update the political establishment, but also for scrapping the Washington party machine.

2016 elections will be a major test for both parties – Republicans and Democrats are approaching it in the atmosphere of the fall of voter confidence in the very principles of the functioning of the party system.

“More and more signs that the “Washington machine” is ready to accept the idea that trump will be the candidate”

Of course, in the States the institution of the presidency is only one part of the government itself – the vast importance of the Congress and the great powers of the States do presidential power is very limited in the first place, of course, in the domestic sphere. The real power is concentrated in the narrow circle of the elite financial and political, intertwining dozens of different ways, partly inherited and largely behind the scenes. Both parties are being used as machines to work with prospective talent and the mobilization of activists and the electorate and ensure a bright elected show, the chief of which, of course, is the presidential campaign.

Thus the contradiction between the Democrats and the Republicans, of course, is around more or less the influence of Washington, or the Federal government, on the economy and the life of States as a whole, around the ratio of conservative values and liberal freedoms, but in relation to global US leadership elites of both parties want the same.

Yes, there are nuances. Obama, for example, was set at reducing the burden posed by the US as a global hegemon on shifting part of the cost of globalization on regional allies. To the world American paid others – and in General it is not work. Opposition Republicans how much light they curse Obama for the decline of US influence in the world, but there is no doubt that, if elected, “democratic” Hillary Clinton, the US foreign policy strategy will become more aggressive.

But although in the current election campaign’s foreign policy agenda is more prominent than usual, the candidates to sell voters only under the political sauce. First, because the economy and social issues are understood by all Americans, and secondly, because of the electorate’s foreign policy in principle is of little concern and are not interested.

The masses know very little, and the thin layer, which controls the country and is engaged in global politics, not interested in the fact that Wake people from their ignorance and explain to them the complexity of the world. Why? On the contrary, the world is simple and straightforward, it has a universal value, a leader in the pursuit of which is America. And if you need to convince American society of the need to send soldiers to a new war that will be enough to recall the “city on a hill” and “responsibility for peace”, and a few years later a new President of a different party recognizes the last war a mistake.The policy applying for the post of President of the United States (infographic)

Until such time as the failure of globalization will not directly hit the standard of living in the States themselves, the rejection of interventionism and especially from the idea of a “chosen nation” would not stand on the agenda of the presidential election. This is the agenda of the next election, but on these these are the first signals of approaching a new time.

First, both parties appeared candidates defending reinterventions approach, and if the Democrats have this socialist Bernie Sanders, conceding the undoubted favorite of the Clinton, then the Republicans it’s not just Rand Paul, but Donald trump, the leader of the race. Second, the party machine – that is, the elite has become much harder to control the course of the campaign.

And if the nomination and the success of a non-partisan Senator Sanders can still be attributed to the fact that there is no risk in letting non-systemic candidate to participate in inner-party struggle, given that he is doomed to defeat Clinton, the trump situation is different (and Sanders, by the way, will be frayed nerves of the former first lady in the primaries, he may collect more than the current 25-30 percent of the votes). Trump appeared as the devil of the woodwork, and broke seemed to be the logical scenario of elections.

According to which elections in 2016 was supposed to be a battle between the Clintons and the bushes, that is, the elite was ready to throw the game in the “anyone can become President” and make the dynastic nature of the secret power domain of public policy. Ancient Rome the ideal of the founding fathers of the United States was transformed from Republic to Empire.

But Bush, the third was not a fighter, former Governor of Florida is now lagging in fourth or fifth place and almost lost the chance to win the nomination. Write-off – a matter of time, although it is clear that until February-March when the first primaries, the race he did not come. But for the right to go against Clinton will beat the other candidates. And the Republican establishment now have to make a decision about what to replace the unelected Bush, with little choice.

Initially, there were several quite system candidates, representing different spectrums of the party, including the influential movement conservative “dummies” in recent years pushing for the “Washington party machine” and, in principle, satisfied with the establishment – Jeb Bush, Senator Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Senator Ted Cruz. The “social far” was Senator Rand Paul, son of the famous wrestler with the fed, former Congressman Ron Paul, but he partially evolved in its public statements towards the system.

But instead of all this diversity is now at the top of the ratings reign of Donald trump and Ben Carson the billionaire developer and TV personality and surgeon-conservative. Both no policy and has never held any elected office or positions in the Executive branch that the American political system is nonsense. And evidence of the crisis of confidence in the political and party system. Besides the five leaders, the Republicans another, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, also do not have political experience.

Given that Carson is black, his very nomination of presidential candidates seem to be absolutely incredible – a second non-white President in a row is impossible. Fiorina has no chance either to win the Republican nomination, much less to defeat Clinton. But trump has become a sensation this campaign.

Since July, when over the nomination of candidates, he ranked first in the polls among Republican voters. Only two weeks ago he almost lost to Carson – 22 percent vs 26 – but it’s more like a temporary glitch. Carson just started “wet” and trump over decades of its circulation in the national stars poured already all that is possible, and it is almost impossible to compromise anything. The lead of trump and Carson from the other very great: Rubio, Bush and Fiorina 7-8 percent.

And if the first couple of months of leadership trump the press and the “serious analysts” he was ridiculed, now all refer to it more than seriously. First and foremost, the Republican establishment – there is mounting circumstantial evidence that the “Washington machine” is ready to accept the idea that trump will be the candidate. Of course, the nomination will be held only in the summer, but if Trump will be able to hold the lead, then in March-April, after the first wave of primaries will become clear that he is the favorite.

Until that time, “machine”, of course, will try to pull up senators Rubio and Cruz to play for Fiorina and Carson, that is, to do everything to lower trump. But if the spring show that neither Rubio nor Cruz can’t be elected at the party Congress, we will have to agree with trump. It’s not a very good option for the Republican bosses – but what to do?

Trump does not suit them is not so much his views – they are, after all, quite adjustable, but also in its fragmentation. Trump is a very rich man, but money alone does not mean belonging to the American elite and the real power. Trump upstart, ambitious, financial and personnel independent from party-political machines, from the elite clubs, the individualist, is not inclined to teamwork, that is out of control.

The Republicans had imagined about yourself too much the President is Richard Nixon, who although he was a product of the “Washington machine”, but when they came to the White house, was “too much to take on.” To remove it, had to bring the case for impeachment. With trump it will be difficult to negotiate, but the risk to let it float freely is too great. If trump roughly takes the nomination, he can go to the polls as an independent candidate and break the entire game, not just Republicans, but generally across the system: under the current antielitnye the mood he may even win the election.

In addition, in a situation with trump Republicans are forced to take into account the extremely difficult situation inside the party – offensive conservative “dummies” continues, and in all attempts to fit its individual representatives in the existing system, the movement itself was originally caused by the fundamental requirement updates, both human and ideological, of the whole party. That is, on the one hand by the “party machine” has a trump, and on the other “kettles”.

Telescoping in 2016, trump and even winning, the Republicans immediately go to the problem of elections in 2020 – still Trump then it will be 74 and a second term for him is unlikely. Democrats with Clinton, who is under the age of trump just for a year, facing the same problem – who will be the candidate in 2020. So the most important issue in this election for both parties becomes a concern for the future: if the 2016 elections will become a vote for “one term President”, what will happen in the case of the duel, Clinton–the trump, the greatest struggle now will be for the post of Vice-President. After all, this person will be the best starting positions in the struggle to become the master of the White house almost all the twenties.

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