Domestic GDP during the recent crisis demonstrates the strange and unpredictable motions. The ruble suddenly broke from the cost of oil and, despite its reduction in cost, is steadily growing. Unambiguous explanation of this phenomenon from the experts there. That has plunged the government into a complete surprise: they don’t know what to do with it. The GDP continues to fall, although the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev predicted that in the first six months, the decline will slow down to less than 1%. In the meantime, Rosstat in its semi-annual report reports: industrial production in I half-year has grown on 0,4% (June to June 2015 — even 1.7%). Especially shocking is the manufacture of Luggage and handbags, the growth of which exceeded 31%. This is the biggest paradox of our economy: who buys these things, when the Russian tourist flow is clearly not growing?
photo: Natalia Muslinkina
The main indicator — GDP — has not been finally determined. Recall that in I quarter it fell by 1.2%. But it’s not as bad as in 2015, when his fall was 3.9%.
But fully estimated by Rosstat, industrial production in the first half of 2016. It rose 0.4% (June to June and even 1.7%). Mining showed a plus of 2.6%. Manufacturing is in the red (0,9%), but if you take the June by June 2015, we get a plus of 1.6%. This confirms the predictions Ulyukayev slowing rate of decline in GDP, the more that the data of Rosstat say that we have a steadily growing agriculture.
The production of meat and meat products gained 4.6 percent, and pork — 17.6%. So, import substitution in this industry established.
Impressive growth in the production of ice cream fish fillet (+33%) and herring (+29,2%). However, the calf began to produce less than 7.2%, but who now will buy.
“Milk” has grown at a modest 2%. But the production of butter fell by 3.1%, as it is too expensive for most people. But ice cream showed an increase of 7.2%.
“Chemists” are also well done: gained 5.2 percent. Rubber and plastic in the norm of 5.8%. Behind them stretches the garment and textile manufacturing — 3.8 percent. Then there is the pulp and paper (+3%) and food (+2,8%). The latest figure showed manufacturers of machinery and equipment. Woodworking grew a modest one percent.
There are outsiders. It would seem that sitting on oil and know how to competently handle. But production of petroleum products fell by 4.3%. Metallurgists better, but their statistics also deteriorated by 1.7%.
A list of the fallen continues the manufacturers of electrical, electronic and optical equipment — by 3.1% and vehicles — 3.4%. Construction activity also decreased: by 5.7%, and if you compare this June with last year, almost 10%. Decreased production of building materials, namely cement, ceramic tiles, bricks, tiles that should cause alarm, since the construction is a driver of any economy.
Now look at the dynamics of development of certain industries. Recall that we compare the January–June 2016 with the same period last year. Let’s start with the undisputed leader. Manufacture of leather and products thereof, and footwear showed growth of 9.5%.
But the record showed the manufacture of Luggage and handbags — plus of 31.1%! And this despite the drop in the number of tourist trips of Russians abroad.
It would seem, why do we have so many suitcases when there is a serious fall in tourist trips of Russian population abroad. It was partly replaced by domestic tourism, but is fully compensated, the figure was not. The number of trips abroad fell by half, and the number of trips to Russia grew by one third, that is, the total number of people who travel decreased by approximately 20%.
The growth of the cases is explained as follows. A major breakthrough did their counterparts on wheels. Many of you have experienced their convenience: no need to keep the bag in his hands. This is especially important for commuter rail passengers. Accordingly, the increased production of women’s handbags which are easy to put on the handle these suitcases.
To made to buy, need money. Here, alas, is not as fun as with suitcases. On the one hand, the average accrued salary in the first half of this year increased by 7.8% (compared to last year’s period) in June and has already made 38 590 rubles. But on the other, real income, namely net of compulsory payments and adjusted for inflation, fell by 5%.Related posts: