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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Buy currency as soon as it will start to go up


The ruble is surprising. He is growing, or at least does not retreat regardless of what happens with his nurse oil. For how long?


photo: morguefile.com

In the figures, the current independence of the ruble on the price of a barrel is expressed as follows: for July Brent crude oil fell by 6.6%; the ruble against the record of sales of currency on the Moscow stock exchange, on the contrary, has risen 1.7% against the dollar and over 2% against the Euro, setting the highs from the end of 2015. Since the end of January 2016, the dollar fell by 23 rubles (26%), Euro — 24 rubles (25%).

It is clear that the dissonance between the ruble and the oil is a temporary phenomenon, whoever and whatever we may say about the fact that the Russian economy already took off the oil needle. This phenomenon is caused by very specific reasons. The major two. First: major exporters now pay dividends, of course, in rubles. Second on the calendar of the next tax period, which will last until the end of July. Exporters need rubles to pay, in particular, have met), is where a record of sales of foreign currency, which pushed the ruble up, breaking his connection with the price of oil. In addition, the Ministry of Finance’s placement of Federal loan bonds, for which demand is very high.

But all these factors short. “Bell” on the ruble has already go off. It happened July 19, when President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev before the cameras and discussed the problems of a stronger ruble. “We are closely watching what is happening in the economy, and we know that now there is a definite strengthening of the national currency”, — Putin said. Of concern in this statement was much more than legitimate pride in the national currency. If anyone doubts, just remember that the main topic of the meeting of the President with the Prime Minister was to prepare the regular budget the three-year period. “The government is now beginning active work on the budget, we return to a three-year planning, I hope that all of these factors will be considered in the near and medium term,” set the task of the President.

And now a simple question. In which the ruble is interested in the budget, especially when you consider that the Finance Ministry has not promised to keep the budget deficit within 3% of GDP, any result below 4% in the Ministry of Finance in advance served as a success?

Of course, the budget need not strong and getting stronger, and the opposite of the ruble. It’s not a sudden betrayal of the cause of patriotism, it is all about simple math: the cheaper rouble against the dollar, the more ruble-denominated incomes will get the budget from oil, gas and other exporters. And foreign exchange revenue to give up just not able.

There are, of course, unpredictable oil. But the fact that she will appeal to mountaineering, there are doubts. In the oil market is a delicate balance: the higher step rates, the more likely you will Wake up kancevci and will increase the supply, so that the fluctuation in the price of oil is specified and it does not clear up.

So, it remains to follow the hands of the regulators. In March 2016, Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out that in the case of perioralny of the ruble the Bank of Russia will return to the market as a seller of currency. Follow the Bank of Russia website and if there is free money, diversify their reserves, to buy dollars while they are still cheap.

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