The second day of the Congress of the Republican party of the United States will be crucial for America: the party officially nominates its presidential candidate, which is the result of the recent primaries have become controversial billionaire Donald trump. But there are surprises — too many it is annoying. We will start the online broadcast of the decisive day of the Republican Convention at 22:00 GMT.
While decipher the essence of the event. Donald trump, who causes hatred of the political establishment (including the Republican), collected in the primary election more than the minimum required, however, the opponents try to throw him out of the race by any means.
Nominee must have a minimum of 1237 votes of delegates (from 2472), in order to be officially nominated by the party. Trump became the sole favorite for the race, exceeding the threshold by as much as 300 votes according to the results of the primaries.
The intrigue of the first day of the party meeting was the issue, will do if the opponents trump the rules changes ballot (details here). This did not happen.
The fact that the Charter members of the Congress in Cleveland should vote in accordance with the results of the primaries in the state they represent. If procedural, the Committee allowed delegates a free vote not tied to the results of the primaries, then trump could be competitors.
A group of opponents of trump at the Cleveland Congress is headed by the Senator from Utah Mike Lee. He managed to enlist the support of 9 States, including Washington and Colorado. However, the head of the session of Congress, Congressman Steve Womack refused to consider changing the rules.
However, the second day of the Congress, too, could theoretically surprise Trump.
“For example, you may find that of the 50 delegates of the state of the respective mandates do not have 15 people – says “MK” chief researcher of the Institute of USA and Canada studies, Vladimir Vassilyev. – Many fall in the list of delegates on acquaintance to drive in Congress through the party – relatives, friends party functionaries… But if you start a tough test, each of the delegates to carefully “analyze” and consider his resume. Criteria for party membership, participation in party organization, experience, efficiency. This “ballast” of delegations are well known.
And in the case of check of these 15 people, who are supposed to vote for trump, are derived from the composition of the delegation and schemers admit those whom they have prepared. They are not required to vote for trump. However, it is very difficult to prepare such reserves from this option opponents of trump, it seems, refused.
This scenario would have been nice if trump had 1,250 votes, for example. That’s when the game had meaning. But since he has a margin of 300 votes, I can not imagine such a development…
There is another scenario – remove the delegation from the state, recognizing their voices invalid. Such a rule is in the rules in case of identified irregularities in the selection of the delegation, its preparation, etc.
Trump in this case is also not gaining their “points”.
If trump miracle “ride” in the nomination process, then comes the principle of free voting: each delegate will choose the one he wants.
“Such a precedent in the Republican party for the last forty years was not, – said Vladimir Vasiliev. – So it’s hard to say how it will be implemented. The principle is simple: the process of selection or self-nomination or at the suggestion of the initiative group.
Then the race can return former opponents trump in the primaries – Senator from Texas Ted Cruz (551 vote in primary elections), Senator from Florida Marco Rubio (173), Ohio Governor John Kasich (160). Hypothetically can be advanced a little-known policy.
Perhaps the main claim of the political elite to Trump remain tough and politically incorrect remarks about women, Mexicans, migrants and Muslims. Paradoxically, it has attracted the electorate, tired of the current political system in the United States.
How a line of trump-President is close to Russia is hard to judge. Don’t forget that he said pretty flattering words in address of the Russian leadership.
President Vladimir Putin also spoke well about the American billionaire, calling it a “bright” personality. On the other hand, many experts trump is associated with unpredictability – including in foreign policy.
Can he win the trump in the presidential elections in November, if he will come from the Republican party? Public opinion polls show that it from the most likely rival, Hillary Clinton is only a few percent. Thus, according to Real Clear Politics, former U.S. Secretary of state is ahead of trump by only 2.7 percent in popularity.
Recall that the fate of Clinton as the official presidential candidate of the Democratic party has not yet been resolved: the Congress will take place from 25 to 28 July in Philadelphia.
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