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Friday, December 9, 2016

Terribly far opposition


Sociologists from “Levada-Center” for the first time in more than two years recorded a drop in almost 50% of the number of those who believe that our country is moving in the right direction. Recent months steadily growing number of convinced in a dead-end path of development of Russia — soon, this figure may reach Dobrynska values.

But despite the ongoing economic crisis and the accumulated discontent, the opposition, apparently, does not seize the Duma majority. According to the “Levada-Center”, in the elections Sunday, United Russia would have received more than half the votes. And given the return of single-member districts, the next Parliament risks being even more Pro-government than it is now.

According to the conducted opinion polls, barrier 5 percent barrier overcome all those 4 parliamentary parties that are now represented in the Duma (a little only question is SRS), while the ratings of the systemic opposition is not higher than five years ago. The right-wing liberal party are in deep basement without any chance to get to the light. For them success is approaching 3%, which will entitle them to government funding, but mandates they are unlikely to get.

United Russia will seek to restore the indexation of pensions in full from next year”, — said Dmitry Medvedev at the recent Congress of the party. From whom she will achieve it, is unknown — do it this year refused just led by the Medvedev government.

Social well-being of Russians is declining, the authorities still corroded by corruption, the ruling party unsuccessfully struggling with the problems that it generates, however, it enjoys public support. Against degradation of all institutions in the country ratings of “United Russia” look ridiculous. What is it? Our people are decided with a run jump off a cliff?

Any phenomenon must be a logical explanation. Is it illogical high ratings of “ER.”

First, the blame for the status quo rests with the opposition. “Respectable” part of it considerably outdated, has shrunk like shagreen leather, has abandoned serious ambitions. Many of its leaders resigned to roles of the second plan, was crushed because of compromise and bad compromise. Now they have become a brake on the development of their own parties, do not allow them to increase the impact. Their incapacity is the contrast for all bright slogans and optimistic statements emanating from their parties.

Of course, there is blame not only the personal qualities of the people in the leadership of the parties. Government policy was initially aimed at the marginalization of the opposition and replace it with a fake, imitating the controversy and political struggle. Instead of parties, lively social activities had come to an driven show creating the right image and does not prevent the new elite to rule. In many ways, this problem was solved. The remnants of the living, the principle was either destroyed or isolated. The same happened with the press, and political satire, so soon to help us remove the mask from reality. To replace the slain and the dead came to show the dancing dead — sort of the same shape, but inside of emptiness and vulgarity.

Another, younger, “network-interactive” part of the opposition — in fact even less capable. Leaders have a reputation among my small audience, but rarely show the nose beyond the MKAD (the ring road and a couple of large cities). You can’t see really major figures who can unite, not narrow party and the broad masses of people. There are people truly principled and selfless, but they are few. And the other allows himself to impose the agenda or agree on the tactical compromises that kill all of their political strategy. It took 5 years after the protests, and things are there — the same electorate, the same ratings (if not worse), the same narrow geography.

Meanwhile, conducted by the Center for economic and political reforms social research shows that the electorate “United Russia” is extremely flimsy. Technically it is “their” party believes that 35% of Russians, however, one-third of them found it difficult even to name the name of the leader of the EP, the rest are confused between Medvedev and Putin. Figures clearly demonstrate the gap between the authorities and opposition: from the EP a rating of 40-50%, and the opposition is ready to vote in the aggregate approximately 30%, and for each specific party — no more than 10-13%. This gap is not yet filled, but this is an obvious request for new faces and new forces.

There is a second reason why the Russians, even during the crisis continue to support the government and refuse to trust the opposition. Not discover America if I say that the bulk of the electorate lives under the influence of the state media.

Conventionally, our people can be divided into narrow layer of the elite (about 1%), middle class (20% to 30%) and the so-called population sociologists sometimes call him the base class). These strata live each in his information world, almost nothing to each other not touching.

The middle class although watching TV, partially exposed to his influence, mostly everyone uses online media and social networks. He reads, for example, RBC watches “Rain”. Aiding the democratic opposition, outraged by shortcomings of the regime, knew of his total corruption.

But the majority of citizens, “base class” lives in a different reality. It turns out there is a huge gap: 25% of voters are in the same agenda, 75% in another. Everything we write vibrant, oppositional, democratic, people just do not see. He does not read the columns of the opposition, revelatory articles and posts about the power, he only heard the echo of it as complex and incomprehensible noise.

Of course, the colorful history as a deliverance from punishment Vasilyeva, excite the minds of the mass of the observer, but only because the efforts of the Investigative Committee of such scandals fall on the screen. Basically the world of “simple man” is supposedly “rising from knees” Russia to blame the West, ostensibly seeking ways out of crisis power, which is allegedly fighting against corruption, etc., etc., plus the intrigues, scandals, investigations and endless show interspersed with TV series. All carefully constructed so as not only not to hurt, but to strengthen the foundations.

The opposition and human rights activists, democratic journalists spend a tremendous amount of power for exposing, propaganda and just objective work experience for their opinions, but the majority of people does not know it and, therefore, remains indifferent. The middle class is eventually cooked in their own juice: says to himself, read to himself, debating with himself. It’s happened before, for example, with the Russian intelligentsia of the late XIX — early XX centuries: only a narrow part of oriented and “went to the people”, the rest were in the intellectual discourse. In the end, the revolution went on very different tracks and this is the middle class destroyed.

Today the Russian middle class has no political representation and no political influence. A few, but the ruling elite that seized electronic media, directly, bypassing the middle-class people processes, forming his comfortable setup.

This is the main difference between our society from the Western middle class, there is created an equivalent communication channels and does not allow the elite to fully capture the information agenda. In the end there is always opposed, an alternative policy proposal. We do not, but not only because the government prevents civil society: we do not use the available opportunities.

In developed countries the middle class constructs a dense network of institutions and structures of civil society. Constantly interacts with the public and involve it in its activities in different areas: social assistance and charity, education, culture, youth programs, work in the “popular” social networks and much more. Yes, the Western community grants not only provides the state but also business. However, where civil society is not an end in itself and not waiting for manna from the powers that be. People are willing to pay for effective operation, so you can rely on the public Fund. Western men know how to work with a small business who is interested in certain social change.

The middle class, the asset companies, thinking and creative people in Russia must go beyond its social layer. Mechanisms are known: new party building, new social organizations and online communities, and uniting Moscow and the regions. Even a few years ago, attempts to move in this direction was more, but after the first failure most of the “activists” gave up and went to the tactics of contemplation. Need and new content — people will not do for those who have no vision of the future, and it is in our intelligentsia exists only in the form of a set of abstractions. Craft beer and foreign cheese is all well and good, but people need real reform and people who are able to implement them.

All references to the circumstances on the stuffy mode and a narrow window of opportunity is understandable, but, alas, untenable. When and where was the perfect conditions to fight for their interests? On it and fight. A rolling class no leaks — seems to be a truism, but I think they should again and again repeat. Che Guevara once said: “Tired rest. But after that you won’t be fighter of the revolution.” Golden words, worthy to be placed on the wall in the house each of the current intellectuals.

Today and now we have a long political cycle: 2016-2021-2024. If in 2016 it is unlikely that it will seriously push to 2021-mu it is possible to build a viable civil society. And it will be just in time: in 20-e years and will begin a rotation in political generations and there will be a change of government — it is necessary to fit in, otherwise you will be followed by a new freeze for 20-30 years. But you have to be ready before the crisis in the yard. This may speed up political processes.

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