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Friday, March 16, 2018

“Shadow CIA” breaks the European dream of Ukraine

Analytical center Stratfor, which is often called the “shadow CIA”, published a study on the impact of Brexit on the theoretical accession of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia into the European Union. Insights analysts ruthless: the former Soviet republics will have to learn to live by. The only question is when it will be able to take their citizens.

“Within a few years, these countries hoped to join the EU, but none of them received invitations. Although Brexit will not be a prerequisite for an instant collapse of the EU, without a doubt, the attention of the European Union focus on the inherent problems Brexit” – say the experts of Stratfor.

“Breksi” showed that Europe will probably continue to thrive, but not necessarily in the form of the Union, where the rich and successful to help the poor and backward”

According to American analysts, “the country is now preparing for the worst-case scenario in which the liberalization of the visa regime is extended even further”. “But visa liberalisation is not the only question that hangs in the balance for Ukraine. Before Brexit, the EU gave signals of a possible easing of sanctions against Russia. Confusion after the referendum may be the reason why the EU is more likely to ease restrictions,” notes Stratfor. In this case, “Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia are worried that the EU will reduce its interest in expanding in the East, allowing Russia’s influence in the region grow.

Indeed, many analysts warned that the rapid expansion of the EU may lead to brittleness of the formed structure, but few expected that Britain will become the first person to leave a supranational education.

Given the authority of Britain as one of the oldest democracies, its exit from the European Union, certainly, have caused serious damage to the reputation of a United Europe. The former Soviet republics for many years has said that EU membership is the best thing that can happen to any country on the continent. Now the propagandists of European integration received a major blow in the stomach, and then below.

The Commission may adopt any number of statements about the desirability of abolishing visas for Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine (Moldova have already received visa-free entry, but the economic depression in the Republic is not affected). But the chances that the citizens of Turkey with its rebels and terrorists have the opportunity, without additional control to enter Europe, are minimal. Ukraine, with its rapidly impoverished population too. Many people forget, but Europeans should remember that the militias of Donbass in the majority are citizens of Ukraine. This means that the opportunity to enter Europe without visas are issued to people with serious combat experience.

Georgia, of course, a small terrorist activity in it, fortunately, is low, so she is now the best chance to receive visa-free entry, especially considering the lack of land borders with the countries of the EU. However, the EU also remember that Georgia has territorial claims to neighboring States (or rather, does not recognize them as such), while the citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia hypothetically have the right to obtain Georgian citizenship, therefore to visa-free entry to European countries.

The European Union has long experienced, saying of Stalin, “dizzy with success”. Many businessmen know that in the process of the growth of the company at some point easy to lose control of the enlargement process and the result to be close to bankruptcy. The ideal option in this situation is the rapid sale of the business to the investor in order to leave in order to deal with the numerous regional units, which not only do not bring profit, and take permanent losses, which also grow.

The EU managed to keep from “Gracita” largely because lenders understood that in the case of the EU and the Eurozone and Greece is fast devalue the drachma, and the payment of debts will be postponed for decades, with the result that they will be easier to write off than to wait for their receipt, as it happens with the debts of the developing countries of the Soviet Union. Russia, writing off these bad debts, it is not charity, but simply recognizes the objective reality – to seek a refund in these cases it is impossible even with the use of military force. It’s easier to write them off in exchange for economic or political preferences, allowing in the future to compensate for at least part of the losses.

The withdrawal of Britain from the EU as a whole will not cause serious economic damage to any of the parties, whatever may be said as a sincere and paid opponents of Brexit. But the reputational damage is difficult to overestimate. If the Turkish citizens for decades waiting “burned out”, and the EU continued to aim for only a part of the elite, in the case of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia’s desire to join the European family of peoples” remains a very hot, albeit imposed by years of propaganda. However, it is difficult to consider the main purpose of his state entry into the Union, which ran the most prosperous participants.

In the scientific works devoted to the causes of the collapse of the Soviet Union, one of the main ideological reasons for the self-destruction of the Soviet state is called the disappearance of the real purpose of its existence. Citizens were willing to suffer inconveniences, while they were told that the onset of communism – it is the coming years. And in the years of “perestroika” and “glasnost” it became clear that there is no communism in the foreseeable future will not happen – and putting up with hardship no longer made sense.

Ukrainians regularly say that in the coming decades in the EU, no one is waiting. But even 20 or 30 years – quite a foreseeable time, people can live in difficult conditions, thinking, “Our children will live under communism” – that is, in prosperous Europe. But someday they will understand that in this case, “through the decades” is a diplomatic synonym for the word “never”.

Brexit showed that Europe will probably continue to thrive, but not necessarily in the form of the Union, where the rich and successful helping the poor and the backward. “Polish plumbers” as their Baltic colleagues – the waiters have earned their in Britain, but soon they will have to move to the East. And against the background of worsening problems of refugees and the horrific rise in the terrorist threat, the closure of the European countries within its own borders and focus on their own agenda – almost inevitable path of development.

Ukraine for 23 years maintained a relatively acceptable standard of living for its citizens through cooperation with Russia and direct economic assistance from Moscow. Now the interaction is destroyed, the help was minimal (to say about to terminate in a situation when in Ukraine, for example, the Russian state-owned banks. And in the case that the warming of relations with Turkey will last at least a few years and lead to the establishment of a southern gas pipeline that bypasses Ukraine, gas transit as a source of currency for Kiev will also dry up. Exports of food and metal is not able to give sufficient funds to maintain the social system, which is not really reformed since Soviet times. And that the current government will voluntarily launch structural reforms believe is that the loyal supporters, Petro Poroshenko, whose number is decreasing every day.

In Moldova and Georgia, the situation is somewhat better, but if Europe really engaged in their own problems, to successfully market its status as “victims of the Russian occupation” it will be harder. Will have to negotiate with Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia on good-neighbourly relations, will have to listen more carefully to the wishes of Moscow.

In such hands, Stratfor is acting as Captain Obvious: the independence of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova that they were ready to sell in Brussels, no one else is interested. Hypothetically Moldova could join Romania, but unionists in recent years have died down in both countries. And Ukraine and Georgia in any case have to learn to live by. Actually, as it was assumed in 1991, during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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